today is THE day for trading bitcoin! (A+ day)

What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Today we finally have a D-Day, right? This is the first and only news day of the entire week, and you know what that means. Chances are we're going to have a pretty high probability day on our hands. So I'm going to break it all down in terms of what we're going to be looking for in terms of Bitcoin. But just right before I get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been making these daily videos for the last year and a half or so, and I've been documenting the win rate of cross like 200+ trades. And so far I'm sitting at around a 78% win rate. So if you're new here, just understand that you're probably in the right place because I tend to be right a little bit more often than I'm wrong. But with that said though, let's dive right into the video. And like, yeah, let's just kick things off on the daily chart. And by the way, like, as I'm scrolling through this, I really hope you guys watched the video from yesterday and I really hope you guys took it because what a banger of a trade. Like, I was expecting, if you know, if we managed to hit like $60,700, I was going to be happy with that. But we actually went all the way down to $59,000, which is also like, it also puts us in a bit of a pickle because at this point you have to wonder— if you remember from the video that I made on Monday, I said that the weekly objective for, you know, this week would most likely be this level right here at $59,000. The problem is we just hit it right before the news day. So even though we're looking at a bearish daily bias here, what are we supposed to do? So I'm going to break that all down later as we get into the lower time frames, but just wanted to quickly shout out, like, yeah, again, just once more,— this exact concept of utilizing the weekly bias plus the power of 3. And I've broken this down like every single day from Monday to Wednesday. So I really hope you guys, you know, actually watch that and caught on to that. But this is a textbook example of how you use this. You have bearish weekly bias. Monday you open, this is the weekly open. You want to look for price to actually go above the weekly open so that you can sell high. And then you take advantage of a true expansion towards the downside. And that's exactly what we got. So this, my friends, is a textbook example. Weekly Bias plus Power of 3. And this is why we were able to catch the absolute banger that we ended up catching yesterday, which if you guys were following me on Twitter, you would have known I got a 10R trade. Now that's the type of trade that does not come around that often, but when it does, it basically sets you up for the rest of the week, potentially even the rest of the month. Like I could not trade for the rest of the week and I would not care. And that is kind of like the mentality that you want to have with trading. But anyways, just to zoom in a little bit, Depending on what chart you're on, you may or may not have had the weekly objective be taken, right? Right now I'm on the Binance perpetual futures chart, and I can see that the low is at $59,060, and this low right here is $59,080. So technically the low has already been swept. Now just to double confirm, I'm going to check it out on Binance, like Binance spot as well. That is $59,100, and that is $59,130. So on Binance spot, this has already been swept out as well. And just to do it one last check on the Bybit chart, 59,065, 59,081. So on all of the major charts, the low has already been swept, which means that the daily— sorry, the weekly objective that we were aiming for at the start of the week was completed in literally a single day, which again puts us in a bit of a pickle because yes, today technically is going to be the high probability day of the week. At the same time, like, whatever we were aiming for already got hit. Now even though I say all of this though, it does not change the fact that we are still going to be looking for a short. Why? Because there are so many times, right, where you could have some sort of arbitrary target, or you could just place your target at some sort of a swing low or a swing high, and you can come to the conclusion that, yeah, I think, I think the move is done, right? That's the bottom. Or like, you think whatever you think it is, it doesn't really matter. It also doesn't matter what I think the bottom is going to be, because at the end of the day, the market's going to do what the market's going to do. There are so many times where, especially back in the, in my early days, I would just kind of go off on a whim and make a prediction like, okay, price is going to stop at $60K. Funnily enough, you know, goes to $55K as an example. So I've learned ever since then to just simply follow where the momentum going. For example, when— as long as the market structure remains bearish, or as long as the order flow remains bearish, I am going to continue trading this towards the downside until proven otherwise. This is the same lesson that I keep giving you guys over and over again. This is the exact same type of trade that we ended up taking yesterday, where instead of— like, if you guys recall, right, yesterday I told you guys that, okay, first of all, these relatively equal highs over here, you do want to wait for them to get swept prior to you getting in., right? So that was step 1. Eventually they did get swept. Now this would have been the ideal entry. Unfortunately, I was on a 1-hour lead, like I was on a 1-hour call with somebody, so I ended up missing that. But I said no panic, right? Right now, eventually we managed to get another CUSD. However, I wouldn't just kind of place my entry here, place my stop here, and just like, you know, deal with such a wide stop loss. Now it would have worked out as well, but this would not have gotten me a 10-hour trade. So what I told you guys to do was, or at least what I was doing, was to wait for a new M5 order block to form before getting into that instead. Now the reason why I mentioned this has like— the next tweet is going to let you understand why I mentioned this. So at some point we finally get that new order block forming. Now for me personally, I entered at the halfway point of the order block even though this was the entry. Reason for that, and I'll put the receipts on the screen later, the reason why I entered at the halfway point is because I didn't actually set a limit order. Uh, I kind of waited for price to come into you know, the order block. And if you guys recall, when in fact, let me just show you this so I'm not— so you guys can be sure that I'm not just pulling this out of nowhere. So as we enter back into the order block, right, if you take a look at just the 1-minute chart, by the way, let me just remove this. The 1-minute chart right here, within the same 1-minute candle, you actually go all the way to the halfway point. So at that point, I was just, yeah, you know what, originally I had my entry here, but like, if I can get it there, perfect. So that's what I did, and that's how I ended up getting a 10R trade. But again, Right, also updated you guys that we basically achieved 2R in 10 minutes, but I'm going to go for more. Eventually closed with 10R, which I can drop the receipts here. So just understand the reason why I bring this up is that a lot of people will tend to think, okay, especially beginners, and especially with a lot of even the students that I work with, it's just, okay, if I miss the initial entry up here, then I'm too late, right? Like, oh, I missed the initial entry, I missed the perfect entry.. But no, as long as you can be confident that A, the market structure is still heading in the direction, B, the target is still kind of intact and you still have reason to go towards the downside, and C, if the order block is— sorry, if the order flow is also pointing towards the downside, then just, bro, sell low and buy back lower. Like, there is no reason why you should be missing out on this entire move over here just because you missed the perfect entry. And this ties back into what I'm like talking about here as well. It's like, yes, the target has been hit, but at the same time I don't know. Like, at the end of the day, I am just one person. The market is huge. Who knows what the market's going to do next? And in fact, I never even claimed that I know what the market's going to do. In every kind of video that I tell you guys, in every single video that I make, all I tell you guys is like, hey, you know, I really don't know what's going to happen, but I do know that based on my system and just applying, you know, this raw price action into the logic of my system, I would say that based on the system, there is a higher likelihood that we head in this direction at this time from this price than not., and that's what I'm going to look for. And if it happens, then I go into a trade. Like, this is how I would boil down trading. It's not necessarily about trying to predict what the market's going to do. It's just putting everything through your system. If it fits, great, you take it, and you trust that, you know, the system is going to produce more money than it loses over the long run. And trading becomes simple at that point. If you'd like to also install this into your own trading and to just kind of overcome that frustration of like you never really quite know what to do, and even when you do take trades, you end up just losing a bunch of them, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. We have had close to 50% of everyone that comes through those doors, they either get funded or they just acquire all of the necessary skills in order to make a full-time living from trading. If that sounds like what you're looking for, and if you enjoy my philosophy on trading, feel free to click in. And don't worry, it's not going to be some hard pitch or whatever. You will never be forced to, you know, join if you don't want to. We're just going to share some information, figure out if you're a good fit, and if you're not, then we at least equip you with the very clear next steps in order to make progress as a trader. But with that said though, coming back into the video, so the reason why we're still going to be looking for a short today, as I've already prefaced, is because the overall order flow is still incredibly bearish. And because of this, the thing that we're going to do on the 1-hour chart today is to just mark out this bearish order block over here. And so in the event that price comes back into this order block, we're actually going to anticipate price going lower from this point onwards. Now At what time are we going to anticipate this going lower? Well, that's what we're about to find out, and that is going to be at 8:30 AM, right? At 8:30 AM, you're going to get red folder news for USD. And the reason why this matters is because the market usually needs some sort of a reason to move, and high-impact economic news gives the market that, you know, that reason. For example, if you have no news, nobody's going to be looking at the market and expecting it to move. But when you have something like, you know, PCE price index, you know, quite a lot of big players and quite a lot of other players are going to be looking at the market at that time., and they're going to be like, okay, we have big news today. I think something's going to happen around that time. Now, I may not know if price is going to go up or down, but I do know that something's going to happen there. And so when everyone's attention is on the markets, that's when you get these big explosive moves. Now, I know yesterday we actually got a pretty big one. However, you could argue that yesterday we had a bit of a surprise news event. So apparently one of the reasons why the entirety of the markets actually went through a huge dump, like I'm talking like gold, NASDAQ, the stock market, and just everything in general, including Bitcoin. One of the reasons why it dumped is because is the South Korean government introduced a tax on unrealized gains on stocks. And I'm not sure if it's passed, but I think it is passed. And this just kind of sent shockwaves through like the whole market because the fun fact, the AI bubble right now is kind of what's propping up pretty much half of the US economy, potentially more. And South Korea, or at least South Korean AI companies, are actually a big part of that. So, you know, if South Korea has an issue, it impacts the overall kind of like NASDAQ slash US stock market slash US market. And that in turn leads to, you know, just widespread dumping. So that's kind of like the theory, but like probably not super important. But still, the market moved because of a reason. The market doesn't move for no reason. That's why you always see like on Mondays and Tuesdays when you don't have any sort of news, nothing happens for good reason. There is no reason to move. Today we have news. And so what you're going to want to look for is the hour before news to the hour after news is going to be the best kind of like trading window. So starting from 7:30 AM all the way up to 9:30 AM, you're going to look for price to come back into this bearish order block. And then once you get a confirmation on the 5-minute that, hey, you have CSD, that's the moment that you enter. And no, you do not just place a limit over here, place a stop here, and expect this to work out. This was like, fun fact, I had a live trading call yesterday with our students, and one of the core things that we talked about, and one of the things that I was trying to prove, was like, there is a reason why the system that we're using dictates that just because you come into an hourly PD array doesn't mean you dive in right away. You still have to wait for that 5-minute CSD before you get in. So just as an example, this blue box over here is a 1-hourly order block, right? Just like the one that we drew on Bitcoin. Now, just because price actually comes back into it, you don't just set a limit there because you still need the 5-minute to give you some sort of a CIST. Now, at that point, you do actually get it. The only problem was like this was happening off, like outside of the New York kill zone, which is after 10:00 AM. Ideally, we don't want to be trading after 10:00 AM. We want to be taking most of our trades between 7:00 to 10:00. So timing was an issue. So at that time, You got the CSD basically at 10:15, and by the time you retrace back into it, and yeah, you kind of like break through it. But this is what you want to look for, right? Once you come into the PD Array, you want to see some sort of an indication that, okay, there is a potential 5-minute bullish order block that you can take advantage of. You want to see some sort of a movement towards the upside that breaks order flow. You can be sure that, hey, okay, I have an idea price will bounce from this 1-hourly PD Array, but I also need the market to agree with my idea before I dive right into it. So that is what the 5-minute confirmation is for, and that is what you should be looking for. And I will I will be posting this on X. If you guys, well, you guys already know the drill. I'll be posting, if I do take any trades, I'll make an update on X. And like, yeah, it's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever. So that's the main thing. So as you come back into this, you're going to want to look for that 5-minute change of state delivery before you dive in. And if you do, then entry here, stop here, target 2R. You don't, like, keep it simple for today. I highly doubt that today is going to be as volatile as what happened yesterday, considering that the weekly kind of like objective has already been taken. I would say that $60,700 is going to be a reasonable target for today. I'm not going to aim for too much. And even heck, like $61,400 here, you have like a bunch of relative equal lows. Sweep it out, take here, and then maybe you continue back towards the upside. I cannot predict like if we're going to have volatility for today, right? I can kind of make reasonable estimates, but at the end of the day, I don't know what the market's going to do. I don't know how much volatility there is going to be, and neither is it my job as a trader to predict how much volatility there is. Like sometimes we get close, sometimes we miss it, but either way, like just take profit at 2R. If you can go for more, go for more, but 2R is more than enough to make a very solid living. In fact, fun fact, I learned this recently and like not really learned this, but I was just kind of reminded this recently. But if you have a 2R risk to reward, like 2:1 risk to reward, all you need is a 34% win rate in order to be profitable. 34%. Like you could lose borderline 7 out of every 10 trades that you take and you can still be profitable. As long as you go for 2 for 1 risk to reward. So a lot of people tend to scoff at that, like, oh man, 2 for 1, like, oh, how long is it going to take for me to make money? Oh, there's not enough to make money. Like, you can be really profitable with that. By the way, like, if you're a beginner that, you know, is really interested in making trading your full-time thing, or maybe you just really enjoy this, or maybe you just think that you might have, you know, really good potential in this, but you don't have a meaningful amount of capital in order to make a good living out of this. Like, for example, if even if you make like 10% a month, 20% a month, but if you only have $500, followers, like yeah, you know, good luck making a living with that. I've actually made a like hour and a half long video just giving you the exact solution to this problem. And by the way, fun fact, that video is actually taken directly from a program. Like that's why it's going to be super in-depth. There's not going to be any BS and you're going to get a lot of secret tactics and like pro tips in order to just think about funding and think about prop firms. So I'm going to link it somewhere here. Like watch it when you have like some time and grab a notebook because there's going to be a lot of alpha there. Once you finish watching that video, it is going to give you the absolute full blueprint on how you can make a full-time living from trading, even if you don't have a lot of money, by using other people's money. But with that said though, just one final thing is going to be the invalidation scenario. It's always good to think about the invalidation scenario because we don't want to just get too bought into all of this, right? Just because I paint out this scenario does not mean that there is always going to be a trade. It just means that this is what we're going to look for. And if these conditions are not present, we are not going to trade, right? It is what it is. Not every day is a trading day. Even if today is a proper news day, does not mean that we absolutely are guaranteed to get a quality setup from the markets. Just means that's what we're looking for. Which also means that if by the time we get closer to the news event, we just start, you know, edging up and up and up and up, and there's not really much of an indication that, you know, price is really going to want to go to the downside. Guess what? We're going to relax. We're going to chill. We already made 10R yesterday and we can relax. If you didn't, that's okay as well. The only result that you're going to get if you try to chase something that is not there in the first place is you're going to lose money. And I'm sure you don't like to lose money because I don't think anyone likes to lose money. So do the right thing. If you don't get the setup, just relax, take the day off, go hit the sauna or something. But otherwise, I'm going to give you guys an update on X later and see you guys in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao!