today's bitcoin move will STOP out most people (be careful)

Xuan outlines a Bitcoin trade plan with a long entry at 64,950 and target of 67,250, warning that a break below 64,500 invalidates the setup. He recommends halving risk on this non-news day and waiting for confirmation before entering.
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Before I get into it, just a quick heads up, Blueprint closes in about 10 days. We open intakes probably like once every 4 months or so. So if you've always wanted to learn this 78% win rate system, then now's the best time to join Blueprint before it closes. But anyways, getting into the video, the setup on Bitcoin is going to be a little less straightforward as compared to yesterday. Like, there are a lot of potential traps when it comes to today, and just looking at the markets right away, I'm going to break it all down. In the video. But just right before we get into it, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these trade calls that I've been making on YouTube over the last year and a half or so. And across 220 trades or so right now, I'm sitting at around a 75% win rate. So if you're new here, just understand that you're probably in the right place because I tend to be right just a tiny bit than I'm wrong. So with that out of the way though, let's get into the actual Bitcoin trade for today. And just kicking things off right away with the daily bias, we are actually looking at a bearish daily bias. But I am going to tell you right away that we're going to disregard this, or at the very least not pay as much weight to this. Now usually when we get a bearish daily close, we tend to look for some sort of a short on the very next day. Now the reason why we're going to disregard this is twofold. One, the overall weekly bias is still bullish, right? We are actually bullish on the weekly and we're looking for some sort of a weekly expansion up to this level right here at 67,250. Secondly, this was supposed to happen last week, but we did not end up getting that because last week just ended up being a very low volatility new type week. So Right now, the weekly kind of bias is still intact. But not only that, I want you to pay attention to the daily chart right now. This was the previous range that we were in, and yesterday— no, sorry, 2 days ago, we got a very aggressive and clean bullish candle close above the range high. That means that we have successfully broken out of the range high, and currently we are in the process of retesting the range high before potentially moving towards the upside. Let's go down to the 1-hourly chart. A couple of things stand out to me as well. One of which is the fact that the relatively equal lows that we were looking to get swept yesterday, um, finally got swept today. And secondly, we are currently going through some sort of a CSD at the moment. So the setup for today is going to be pretty straightforward, where when you break above 64,950, or well, when I say break above, I want to be more specific here and saying that you want a 1-hourly candle body close above this level, which is basically just a CSD. Once you get that candle close, this is going to give you an opportunity to retrace back into this entire order block and for price to continue towards the upside. Now, one of the things that I will pay attention to is to go half risk for any trades today because we have absolutely no news today. And also, as I'm about to break down, we also have a potential invalidation scenario. So the fact that we're going against the daily bias at the moment, plus the fact that we have no news, means that we want to account for, you know, these slightly lower probability market conditions by going half risk on any trades that we do take. So if usually you risk $1,000, today, even if all of the conditions are present, you would risk $500. So being too aggressive when the market conditions are not, you know, the highest probability is genuinely a mistake, something that most people don't really think about. So this is one thing that I will pay attention to. Which, by the way, if you've been watching until this point in the video so far, I really hope you managed to, you know, get the trade that I called yesterday, 'cause that was a very clean move. Which, by the way, I shared the entry exactly on Twitter. So if you want to just get access to all of my trade calls, kind of like the exact entry, feel free to follow me on Twitter. Like, if I am taking a trade or if I have an update, I'm going to be posting on Twitter. It's not going to be gated behind some signals group or whatever. So yeah, this was the exact limit, and Couple of moments later, well, you guys know the story. Solid call. That puts us up to 38 wins and 17 losses for the year. But with that out of the way though, let's get into that invalidation scenario that I was talking about. The fact that we are having a bearish daily bias so far still could potentially lead to some sort of downwards movement. So the sign that we are going to be looking for in this case is that if you get a candle close on the 1-hourly chart below 64,550, today is most likely just going to end up being a no-trade day. And this is especially so if you end up getting an hourly candle close beneath 64,500 as well. So basically like 64,550, 64,500, like both of these levels are relatively, you know, kind of similar. So if you manage to get an hourly candle close down there, like just relax, chill, and take the day off. Because not only is today a non-Newsday, but the fact that we have a potential kind of head and shoulders pattern kind of setting up as well, plus the fact that we have a bearish daily bias, means that like, yeah, we probably don't want to be too aggressive. Now there is a world actually which now that I'm recording this video, which now that I'm talking about it, like I completely forgot. If we do get a candle close beneath here, we might actually be looking for a short. Yeah, actually. So yeah, just literally this is a rare day here where we have a reason to kind of like look for a long. We also have a reason to look for a short. So yeah, depending on where the candle closes by the time we get into that New York morning window, which is 7 AM to 10 AM New York, then like, yeah, if you get a candle close beneath here, you're going to validate this bearish order block over here and we're going to use that. Of course, if you close above that, then we're going to validate that bullish order block and we're going to trade that instead. Yeah, I could have actually just made this video like 5 minutes long. Good that I thought about it though, cuz I was at some point getting bought into this kind of idea over here, but then failing to realize like, yeah, I have a system for a reason, right? But anyways, just stay safe for today because you can kind of make an argument for both the upside and the downside. You just want to be cautious and wait for confirmations. Either way, I'm going to see you guys on X later. Feel free to join Blueprint before it closes. The amount of results that we've been getting our students is insane, let's just put it that way. But with that said, ciao ciao!










