today's bitcoin retest is KEY (is the bull market about to start again?)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Today I'm going to break down the exact trade that we're going to be looking at in terms of Bitcoin today, and let me tell you, it's still looking quite uncertain. So quite a lot to break down today. Before we get into it though, if you're new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I have a 75% win rate on all of these YouTube trade calls that I do basically every single day, and this has been publicly documented for the last couple of years or so. So hopefully that gives you a bit of a reason to listen to me because I tend to be right just a tiny bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. But with that out of the way though, let's get into the analysis for today. And just kicking things off on the daily chart, you know, yesterday I I pointed out a very interesting scenario where even though we were expecting price to go towards the upside, I just said like, okay, the day yesterday was really low probability. And even if price action were to kind of line up, it's still going to be pretty hard for you to actually hit your TP. In fact, out of the 250 trades or so that I've taken over the last year and a half, even though my overall win rate is relatively high, the majority of my losses has historically come on Mondays. And the reason I gave you from yesterday is that oftentimes on Monday you will see that price action will tend to line up, but then for one reason or another, the trade's just not going to play out. Now, just to give you an example. The trade yesterday that we kind of marked out during the video is that London has swept out this key level, and we're expecting it to go up during the New York session. And guess what? We did in fact go up. But getting an entry here was going to be very tough because assuming you potentially— there was basically like one opportunity yesterday where this would have worked out for you. So the moment you get the CSD over here on this candle, like this candle right here, that's when the CSD gets confirmed. Literally on the very next candle, You dip into it and off you go. That was the only time where you could have gotten a 2R trade out of it, because if you ended up taking this larger order block over here where you get the undeniable CSD, you put your stop loss all the way down there, you would not have gotten a 2R. Why? Because you would have gotten stopped out for some reason before price shot straight towards the TP. And this has been the trend that we've been observing over the last couple of weeks, and that's why I'm such a big proponent of just focusing on the high probability days. And Mondays are not one of those high probability days. Now what I did also mention, like part 2 yesterday, is that depending on how Monday closes, today is going to be a lot easier to trade. Because for example, right, we could have made an argument that price was going to go towards the downside, and if that was the case, then we get a bearish daily close, then today we can just look for some sort of a retracement followed by trend continuation. This today was going to be a lot easier to navigate. On the flip side of the equation, if we ended up closing bullish, then today we could just look for a retracement and then we just ride a trend continuation. Also pretty straightforward. Unfortunately, we got neither because yes, we did ultimately get the bearish daily close. But if we take a look at the lower time frames at the moment, um, the price don't look bearish whatsoever. If anything, it's kind of looking bullish. So that makes it tough to navigate because in the event that we get a candle close above this level right here at $84,000, uh, it means that we should theoretically speaking be looking for longs today. Now looking for longs where? Probably up to 85,000. So this video, a lot of this depends on whether or not we get the candle close. For example, by the time you watch this video, if we do not get the candle close above this level on the 1-hourly chart, guess what? There's probably just a sweep at the range highs or whatever, and you're going to go to push the range lows. Here comes the problem: you're very close to this liquidity level at the moment, which means in order for us to kind of maintain the bearish scenario, we would need to sweep out this level and not close above this level, which makes it a bit complicated because if we close above this one, You have a bullish CSD, the 1-hourly order flow is officially bullish, and 5-minute, chances are you're going to be bullish as well. And if you know anything about the system that we trade, one of the reasons why I'm able to maintain such a decent win rate across like a very long time span is because like 80 to 90% of the time I only take trades that have timeframe alignment, which basically means that, okay, today the daily chart is pointing down because of the bearish daily bias, but in the event that we get a bullish 1-hourly timeframe, We now have the daily pointing down, the hourly pointing up, and the 5-minute, depending on what time you're looking at the chart, could be pointing up or down. The key thing is on the daily chart and the 1-hourly chart because that doesn't change, you know, within the span of a few minutes. It usually takes a day to change. And ideally, you don't want to be jumping into trades where your 1-hourly timeframe is pointing one way and your daily timeframe is pointing the other way. Now granted, I do have reason to believe that from the weekly perspective that that is in fact the low of the week, right? We have reason to believe that. So chances are I'm still going to be looking for longs today. In the event we get that one hourly, you know, kind of close, it's just that the overall probability of the trade for today is going to be lower for that particular reason. Speaking about the weekly chart, what do I mean when I say I have reason to believe from the weekly chart that I do think that things are going to go up? Well, it has to do with this level right here, specifically this previous weekly high. Let me just draw that properly. Yeah, so this previous weekly high is the level that we not only retested last week, but we retested yesterday. And I did say that a lot of the price action for this week will hinge on this level right here, because last week you ended up getting a confirmed bullish candle close above $83,000, which means that this week is a prime opportunity to retest this level to see if there are a pool of interested buyers in keeping price above this level. Basically, if price just starts falling through this level, it means that there is not really that many people that are interested in buying Bitcoin at these prices, which means the volume is not going to be sustained, which means price is going to return all the way back down to at least $80K and potentially lower. Now, in the event that you retest this successfully and price actually makes a higher high, potentially reaching for that previous weekly high at $87,000, great news! Guess what? The bull market is pretty much back. Going down back to the daily chart, we can see that, okay, Monday we ended up sweeping this key low right here, plus we retested this level again. And today we have had a pretty strong reaction towards the upside. And so the trade that I'm going to be looking for today— and I know it's been quite a roundabout fashion that we've taken to arrive at this conclusion— but in the event that we get a candle close above this level, I'm just going to be looking for a retracement During the New York session, and chances are that retracement is going to come at around this block right here where the price retraces, and we're going to be looking for continuation towards the upside targeting $85,000 for the day. Now again, reason being is that right now we're just taking a bet that the weekly low is already kind of in, which you know it's already swept out quite a few key lows. Granted, we have a relatively equal low right here, but in the event that you get a CSD that tells you something different, where there is a pool of interested buyers. That have the volume and they have the capability of driving price aggressively above certain key levels. And the event that they do really drive price up above $84,000, this entire block right here is going to become a bullish order block, which means in the event that price returns back into this block, we're going to expect it to hold as support rather than you just kind of falling through. Because after all, order blocks get formed for a reason. And especially if you're able to tie these technical analysis concepts with an overall broader narrative, and if you're able to tie this into timing as well and your understanding of like weekly profiles. So for example, in terms of the weekly profile, we know that last week closed extremely bullish, which means that we are going to be bullish for this week as well. When we're bullish for this week, this is the weekly open. When we're bullish for the week, anytime price goes below the weekly open to tap some sort of a key level, we anticipate that to potentially be the week— sorry, the low of the week, where we can have the opportunity to buy low, and then we can ride an expansion towards the upside because we are overall bullish for the week, right? This is a concept known as the power of 3. That is just one of the many concepts that, you know, I try my best to share here on YouTube. But the truth is, with how short these videos are, it's impossible for me to teach you a bunch of concepts from start to finish progressively in a beginner-friendly way to make sure that you understand these concepts, to make sure that you know, okay, you understand it, how can you apply it? And ultimately, most importantly, it's just making sure that what you learn, you know, the information that you, you know, consume, you're actually turning that into cold hard cash from the markets by trading consistently. Which leads me on to a humble pitch. What I just described sounds like something you would like help with, where not only do I just hand you a course and say, hey, go figure it out yourself, not only me but my entire team is there to help keep you accountable as well, making sure that you understand everything correctly, making sure you implement everything correctly, and overall just turning you into a very consistent trader, then click the first link in the description box below and book a call. What you will be interested to know is that we have had 56 students come through that door, specifically 56, and 31 of them are currently funded for over $100,000 or They're already making a full-time living from trading. That is 55% of the total overall students that join where they achieve the promised result that, you know, we put at the front of the, you know, kind of the offer page. That is a success rate that you will not see anywhere else in the industry because nobody dares to measure this. After all, most trading programs don't work, and a lot of these trading gurus, they know that as well. That's why they're not very transparent about these things. But I am, and the reason why we have achieved results like this is because we have a system that works. So if you'd like to be the next success story, click the link below, book a call. Otherwise, let's get back to the video. Now that we understand the power of 3 and how we are overall building a narrative where, you know, we're expecting the low of the week to either come— like, it's either going to come here or at this bullish order block right here. But either way, in the event that— like, the entire trade today basically hinges on the fact that we get a bullish candle close above here. Uh, if we do, then yeah, it's going to be relatively straightforward. Well, if we don't, then that's going to present a whole challenge because so far Things are still pretty bullish. However, you have left behind a bunch of relative equal lows from the Asia session as well as the London session. So in the event that you actually sweep above here and you manage to close lower, this is the price action that you come into during the New York session. Like, the play might actually just be to jump into a short and to actually follow the direction of the daily bias. Again, to understand one thing, this level, like this candle close right here, is critical. If you do not get a candle close above this level, you are not bullish and you are going to be looking for bearish. And in the event that you look for bearish, it's going to be pretty straightforward as well. I will be sharing any of the entries that I do take later on, on X, when the New York session actually starts, which by the way, I share all of my trades there. Like, it's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever. And lastly, if you enjoy a lot of the alpha that I share on just these daily videos, you're going to be pleased to hear that there is a second channel where I'm just sharing a bunch of like high-value snippets from the coaching calls as well as the live trading calls that I do with my students. I get really deep into specific trading topics. It's just not done in a format where I could posted here on this main channel. So if you want to see more AOC, check out the highlights channel. You're going to find it somewhere on the screen right here. Ciao ciao!