Bitcoin hasn't broken below 84,300, so the bearish case didn't trigger. Watch 94,200 for resistance and 78,000 for bearish invalidation. PMI and payroll data could spike volatility, so size positions carefully.
Questions this video answers
A close underneath ~84,300 (depending on exchange).
Bullish invalidation above $96,000; bearish invalidation below $78,000.
Approximately $94,200–$94,350 (daily candle body).
Potential intraday draw to ~$89,000; fair-value gaps starting around 86,300 down to ~85,000.
PMI (today) and Non-Farm Payroll (Friday).
Chapters
Good morning guys. Welcome to another video. So the scenario that we wanted to see and the scenario that we talked about yesterday indeed happened right now. The bull case for bitcoin is not dead. Because if we got a candle closure yesterday underneath 84,300, we would have been absolutely screwed for, you know, the foreseeable future. But as you can see here, there were a lot of buyers that stepped in and pushed the price upwards to fail the close underneath these up close candles here, which would have confirmed a bearish order blocker and a huge bearish order block at that on the higher time frame. So the that we didn't get this means that the bully like the bullish case is still intact and we still have some hope in this video. I'm going to share with you the future game plan for bitcoin and what else we want to monitor in terms of price action to really, really confirm a bullish case and for Old season to return. And I think we have started to get that on the 4 hourly chart. Before I do get into it, I want to shout out all of the fantastic and beautiful people from who watch yesterday's comment, who watched yesterday's video and took some time to leave me a positive comment. This, you cannot imagine how much this means to me because pretty much the majority of the comments that I've been catching for, for a decent amount of time has just been really negative to the point where even I was beginning to doubt my trading and it was starting to get into my mind a bit and just seeing the amount of like, you guys need to show up more often, guys. Like, I would love to see you guys more often, but thank you. It truly means a lot to me that, you know, you guys understand the message that I'm trying to share. The scenarios, the probabilistic thinking and stuff like that and how, you know, every scenario that I do share in my videos, I give, you know, exact criteria that, you know, first of all, I give exact criteria for that, those scenarios to be, you know, validated. But second of all, I always give you an invalidation idea which is, you know, what do you do if you're wrong? And that's where risk management comes in and that's where, you know, having a stop loss comes in. But anyways, thank you to you all beautiful people. This truly means a lot. Tough job being a crypto guru. Respect you for taking a risk. I know, man. Like, I don't know why, you know, all of us, you know, put our necks out there because when we do win trades which happens more often than not. The amount of praise that we get, not even like it's not. We don't even do it for the praise. It's like sort of like radio silence, right? A couple of thank yous. But whenever we get, you know, we make a wrong prediction, it's like, oh my God. I understand the markets are not great at the moment. And right now what we're going to discuss is if the markets are going to get better. I'm going to give you an exact scenario to look at for when the market gets better so that you know exactly where to enter. And yeah, let's get right into the video. So Bitcoin. Let's just discuss it for a moment. Yesterday the reason why we did not want to see a close underneath all of these up close candles was because this would validate it as a bearish order block. Essentially, once you break below this bearish order block, coming anywhere into the bearish order block is going to act as a zone of resistance for you to get continuation to the downside. Now this doesn't also mean that just because we did not close below, we are now in the clear, right? I think today is also going to be a very telling day. In fact, this entire week is going to be a very telling week just because, you know, we have news later on today, we have red news tomorrow, and we have non farm payroll on Friday. So expect this week to be fairly volatile. But again, things does not change in the fact that as long as you have not broken above $96,000, as long as you have not yet broken below $78,000, the fact of the matter is that, you know, we're still just within a previous weekly high and a previous weekly low, which likely makes this week an inside bar. We discussed that on Monday. Right now there is an additional level that we can look at which is this level right here at 84,200 or like 84,300 depending on the exchange that you're looking at. The reason why we want to keep this level in mind is because if price eventually breaks below this bearish order block, it can just go through. If I can show you the previous example where this is your series of up close candles that validates the bearish order block, price breaks below, it comes up to find resistance and then boom, you go below. Again, price breaks below, come up to find resistance and boom, right, you continue on to the downside. So the fact that this order block has not yet been validated means that there is still hope if it does get validated then expect something like this to happen again. So this becomes a new level to watch, not necessarily the previous weekly low now that we have a couple of days of price action developed. So this would confirm the bearish order block. Now what is going to be the scenario that confirms a bullish direction and that is going to come after you break above this level right here. This. And this time instead of 96,000 now we're looking at 94,350 or like 94,200 94,300 is right. The candle body of this down close candle. Now a break above, right? Not just a break, a candle close above on the daily chart above this level here would signal a change in state of delivery. Meaning this is for the first time price has validated a bullish order block came down to hold the bullish order block and to even form a new high. So essentially this will confirm that we have now shifted into bullish order flow. Now order flow is something that gives you a confirmation much sooner than market structure will ever give you a confirmation. Because for market structure to truly shift, we need to break above this level, right? But if the order flow is already bullish at any point after, you know, we break, we get a kind of close above this level right here. Then you can already start looking for longs and chances are it's going to work out. And feel free to apply this to your own trading as well and just to look further down onto the four hourly in terms of the order flow. I we might have already gotten like the first little bit of confirmation. But again this is not the highest probability confirmation. Again I repeat, this is not the highest probability confirmation because we want to ideally see the change in state of delivery on the daily chart and not anywhere below. But the four hourly chart does give you like if you're using higher time frames or if you have ever been confused about higher time frames, four hourly is pretty much the minimum that you want to go for, ideally the daily chart. But four hourly you can still get away with it. And the fact that you have currently filled in the four hourly fertility gap right here, which I've called yesterday in the discord, especially because of the fact that you filled in the four hourly family gap, which if I'm not mistaken I should have talked about. I think I might have talked about it in the video yesterday, but otherwise I did talk about it inside the private alpha group. But anyways, the fact that you fill in the four hourly fever gap and you have such a strong reaction coming out of it. Plus a potential four hourly change in state of delivery, which is the fact that you have broken above down close candles that led to the liquidity sweep slash, you know, the higher time frame fair value gap fill, strong reaction is exactly what we want to see. However, again, nothing is confirmed yet because you are currently inside a bearish fair value gap. Now we can make predictions all we want, but it's way better. Like as a trader, this is a very important lesson by the way. I do not want this to slip ever again. As a trader it's far better for you to read the situation and react accordingly rather than to make predictions and to have like a bias and then like stick to that because we are never going to be 100% certain, right? We can make multiple predictions, predictions and then just read react like, wait for the, you know, scenario to actually form, have a set of criteria for these scenarios and then once they get validated then you just react accordingly. So at the moment, because we know that at the high time frame we're still waiting for a change to state of delivery right now, we can potentially just take a little bet on the fact that, hey, the fact that you're in a favor gap at the moment means that A plus a change in state of delivery means that you can start looking for trades. Now here's the problem that I have with this trade. The fact that you have relatively equal lows right here, although this is not super relatively equal because again you fill in a further gap. So there is still hope. What you want to see happen from this point onwards is for this four hourly high to actually get broken. Because that will signify the fact that hey, this fair value gap was not acting as resistance. There were enough buyers, there was enough interest in the market to push the prices higher and eventually we really want to see this daily change the state of delivery to really confirm that we are so bullish. And until that happens, we are only very cautiously bullish. And honestly we might even be neutral and we're just going to sit on our hands until better conditions show up. I think though that the four hour defer gap here would have been a nice opportunity. We did try to take a trade here yesterday inside the private alpha group. But yeah, still cautiously. If you, if you are watching this video and you have watched my videos for, you know, many, many years and you understand what is a fair gap and how to utilize a fair gap, what I would suggest if you manage to take a trade yesterday around this area here, 100% keep your stop loss Potentially even underneath here, just because of the fact that you have pumped already, just to minimize your downside. So that if even if you do, even if price tends to stop you out, or even if it, you know, just reverses back to entry, at least you're not going to lose a lot. Because yes, you might have got a very good entry, but the fact that you have not yet had full bullish confirmation means that you should still play this cautiously. This is where reading market conditions comes into play. Understanding the type of market condition you are means that in certain market conditions you can go very heavily risk on. And in some market conditions you want to be a little bit more conservative and to either take your profit quicker or move your stop loss a little bit sooner. So that's the situation right now again, right now, still bearish until otherwise proven. The fact that we have gotten this bullish candle close means that we can reasonably expect today to have a draw in liquidity towards the upside. So Potentially we get $89,000 hit today. Now this will depend later during the London session. But what we can see here is that we have fairly gaps right where this further gap right here starting at 86,300 to like 85,000 and even below. So later if you get a situation During London open 2am you2am to 3am New York, you fill in this further gap or even this further gap right here and you start pumping. Then I think New York session later is going to give you a little continuation profile just heading towards the upside with this as your draw on liquidity. And if today closes bullish as well, this is going to be a really positive sign. Why? Because we have news actually coming tomorrow. You can't see it on, on here. If I pull up the S&P 500, you might be able to see it. No, somehow the news. Okay, so the news calendar, as you can see today we have pmi, but I think tomorrow is going to be. Well actually even Friday is going to be the more interesting one because you have non farm payrolls. Essentially all I'm trying to get at here, for those of you who know about a three day setup, which is you have a day one bullish day. If day two also is bullish, then you can reasonably expect day three to be very bullish as well. I think the draw liquidity is going to be at 94,000. I'm so sorry for the roundabout way of giving you guys the setup, but again these are just scenarios. This is not confirmed. I'm not saying yet that hey, I think this is definitely going to happen. It's like do like the criteria hasn't even happened yet. And the criteria in this case is going to be London open, looking for a retracement into the February gap, looking for a movement supporting our higher time frame bias, which is towards the upside. Sorry, not even higher time frame supporting our daily bias, which is towards the upside. And then looking for New York to not break London's low and for New York to give continuation. This would be what I think could happen scenario. Alternatively, you know, you're just going to start breaking lower, which we already discussed. The bearish scenario. We are bearish until otherwise proven. For now, this would be the bullish scenario for the rest of today, which is more of an intraday setup. And then tomorrow and Friday, heading into Friday, if this happens, by the way, then you have again validated a really bullish zone for price to retrace to in the event that you do retrace back into it. So what's likely going to happen on Thursday and Friday if we do get that scenario is boom, boom, boom. Right. Draw liquidity to the previous weekly high at like the current weekly high as well as previous weekly high at $96,000. So this is going to be the breakdown for Bitcoin. If you guys want to learn to trade the way that I do, click the first link in the description box below. It's a free email course that's going to be delivered to you over the course of the next seven days. Again, it's free. And yeah, thank you for all of your support, guys. It, it truly, truly means a lot that you guys are speaking out here. And if you're here, if any of you are here at the end of this video, drop a like it does truly keep me motivated to keep making these videos. But otherwise I'm going to see you guys tomorrow because today is going to be a very telling day. And I will definitely keep making videos all the way until non farm payroll because this week, especially non farm payroll, which is Friday, it's going to be quite a volatile weekday. Subscribe hit the hit the bell notification button so that you do not miss a beach. Have a good day, guys. Bye bye.
