A trader breaks down a losing trade to show why the process matters more than the outcome. He entered at a specific level during the New York kill zone around 8:45am, used half risk, and followed his setup criteria. The lesson: focus on executing your rules consistently, not on whether you win or lose.
7am to 10am New York
About 8:45am
Played it with half risk
150 public trades since February
What's up guys? Just recording this little breakdown of this trade that I posted on Twitter. So that was my entry right there and that was me like 10 minutes later. And the reason why I'm filming this video is because I really want to talk you guys through how I deal with losses. More specifically. Like in this case, I just feel like there's a valuable lesson to be shared. Obviously this is more of a raw video, but yeah, let's get into it. So let me just break down the call from today. Essentially I was waiting for a change in state of delivery. Basically a break above this level right here. Reason why I was waiting for a level break above there is that that would be the definitive kind of change in order flow kind of moment in the sense that, all right, like at this entire point here as you're going up, you could still make the argument that going to get rejected off of this bearish order block right here and price is going to go lower because so far throughout the entire day you have been forming bearish order flow. Right. And so my entry criteria and my conditions were very clear. Right. I do not want to be entering into a long until this level gets taken out. Now obviously it goes without saying that my high time frame as well as my daily chart, they are both bullish. Even my weekly chart was bullish. So I was already looking for longs. Regardless. Let me just clean this. Actually let's not clean it up, you know, better to show how it really looks like on a day to day basis before I clean it up on, you know, my daily videos. Anyways, once this happened at exactly the timing that I was looking for. So this happened exactly at 8:45am now when I say the timing that I'm looking for, what I'm really talking about is just the timing window between 7am to 10am New York. This is known as the New York kill zone. As you can see on top of here, that is the ideal trading hours, at least for me. In my experience this is where most of the major moves and most of the high probability moves happened within the markets. Now I've already called this AMD before and you can see that AMD indeed did happen. So here's what's going through my mind right now. Even though I lost the trade, I'm not salty about it whatsoever. As you can see right here. I played it with half risk. And the reason why I played it with half risk was because today was a non Newsday. And just to show you what I mean, we head on to forex factory. I don't see forex factory here. So today you have New Zealand dollar news and your JPY news. And that isn't even going to be happening like today technically because well it's 9pm, right? 9pm New York means 9am in Asia and in the case of New Zealand that is actually 12pm Their time, right? Because of the time difference. So today is a non news day and when the day has no news it tends to be lower probability. Meaning you could see the exact, you know these price action concepts that we've used time and time and time again. Like I've called 150 public trades since February, right? I make a daily video every single day calling a trade and time and time again, right? With a CISD happening at exactly the hours between 7am to 10am based on all of these inner criteria it's supposed to be a good trade. And that's also the reason why I took it, right? Besides the fact that it was a non news day like most of the other conditions were met. I was patient to not make any moves during this entire period here. Once this happened I made my move and I got stopped out. So is that a problem? No, it's not because I'm taking this trade like win or lose, it doesn't really matter. What I really want you to understand about trading is that this is a process oriented game. Meaning if you imagine like if I, if I now start drawing kind of like three boxes, right? This box number one, this box number two and this is box number three. This first box is your input meaning price action, right? Based on the price action, you're going to take it through some kind of process. And then once you go through that process which is your system, your trading strategy, basically kind of like step one, two, three. Basically what I did here waiting for cisd, what CSD happened, retrace into order block and I take the trade go long. So that's the process. Then you get end up with your desired. Well sorry, you end up with a result. This is the premise of systems theory. Now I am missing out on the environment as well as feedback right now. But this is the simplified version of systems theory. Now there's one thing you will realize about systems theory is that you only have control over the input and the process. Whether or not the outcome comes out as a win or a loser, it's completely up to the market, right? This is a game of probability. There's. If there's one thing certain about the financial market is that nothing is ever certain. So, based on this, as long as I focus on putting in the right inputs and going through the correct process, meaning as long as I'm reading the price action based on my system and then executing it based, like executing my system exactly right, with discipline, while following all of my rules, then that's already my job done as a trader. Win or lose doesn't matter as long as my input quality is high. Meaning as long as I'm doing the right things, I am more likely than not going to make more money over the long run than I am going to lose. Which means that over the long run, I'm going to be a profitable trader. And that's the kind of lesson that I hope to instill with you with this trade right here. Now, I may have lost money, but that doesn't matter. Like, I'm not salty about it whatsoever. Because when I reflect on this trade, all of my input, sorry, all of my entry criteria were met. The price action was, you know, aligning with the scenarios that I painted earlier today. And so when the trade shows itself exactly at the timing, I just take it. Win or lose doesn't matter. And that's the mindset you want to get into as a trader, where you are patient until everything is met and then you act without hesitation. For me, the moment I pulled it up with the moment I saw Price coming back into this order block, I pulled the trigger, place my stop, I placed my target, and win or lose, boom, it. It's all up to the market. And there's no need to get salty, there's no need to revenge trade. Because truthfully, I've already, you know, mentioned it beforehand. But in terms of the higher time frame and in terms of the trade that we're looking for today, in terms of, well, just today, we're looking for longs. And so far, I don't know if you can tell, but this chart is looking bearish as heck. There is no indication that there is any sort of a bullish setup. And it's also okay to just let Price do this, by the way. You don't need to change. You don't need to flip your bias. You don't need to. You don't need to do anything as long as your setup is not there. As long as the criteria for your setup is not there, you don't need to do anything. And that's the lesson that I'm hoping to impart to you today. Obviously, I'm recording this right as this is happening. So, yeah, strike when the iron is hot, but let me know if you appreciate these types of breakdowns and if you like these types of reflections. Otherwise, I'm going to enjoy the rest of my night with this nympha. I've been aging this for like, a solid two years and man, it's going so good. But anyways, have a good night, Cha Cha.
