Seasonal Inventory Planning for Retail with Timothy Bush and Tracy Hazzard

Protect your brand, product or invention from the hazards of consumer product launching and go from idea to product to big brand. With guidance from retail product design and development experts Tracy and Tom Hazard. Get the insider secrets to put the right things in the right order with the right resources so you can out design, outsource and out profit your way to retail success.

Hey there, product launchers. So excited to keep talking holiday this week. We are talking holiday in July. Right. But this way we're going to talk about the big, big Christmas push. We're going to be talking about it, what this looks like for you at mass market. Because if you are preparing, if you are thinking about this is where you want to go and you want to head into mass market retail, there's a whole lot of things you got to think about. And if it is your first year doing a product at mass market retail, you will already have had your orders in. Like all of that stuff should have been done by now in this point of year, but it might be happening for you for next year. And so we want to give you some prep because the timing is completely different. And then also you do have to listen sometimes to the buyer, but also listen to yourself because sometimes they don't always advise you the right way as to what they want and what they should do and what's really best for your brand. And sometimes you have to push back. So we're going to talk about that. So I'm so excited to have Timothy Bush here because he is our resident product launch hazards expert in all things on the shelf retail.

Well, thanks for having me. Yeah. Good to be here.

Yeah. We're talking about it in our short sleeves and the fan on. So it's a little warm to be talking Christmas, but hey, it's the best time of the year at retail, so why not talk about it and plan for it now?

I think one of the hardest things about retail in general is you're never in the month you're in.

That's right.

Right. You're never thinking about, talking about, dealing with, wondering about the month that you're actually in. And in fact, I think people that are just entering into big box retail, they don't yet think in those terms. They think, okay, if the buyer says yes right now, that means I need to be shipping product right now. And it's all going to happen right now. But it's not.

No. You might be talking nine months to a year, sometimes even 18 months, depending on where you are. Right.

Yeah. I just finished three line reviews and they're all for 2019. So yeah, so you do your line review and then probably in September or October, we'll start getting orders that will be to ship in end of first quarter next year. So. And then some retailers even work further out than that.

Yeah, some do. Exactly. I've had more of them, especially when we work on the furniture side. When you work large items, they tend to be a minimum of a year out. So you never know.

So you never, you never know. But the one thing's for sure is, like I said, you're never in the month that you're in. And that is a new concept. And the only way that I was actually back in the day able to start figuring things out was I would start setting these alerts ahead of time in my calendar because it's not natural when March rolls around to start thinking, hey, we got to start thinking about holiday. So back in the day, I started setting alerts in my calendar like, hey, you need to start thinking about holiday because they can go past and then the next thing you know, you're talking to a buyer and they say, well, let's start talking about that in about eight months. And you're like, oh, eight months?

You're like, because I just missed the window of them talking about it for this year.

Exactly. That's what I'm saying. So yeah, you got to set those alerts and figure out when your buyer is talking about certain things and then set those alerts in your calendar so that you can not miss it because it's easy to do.

Right. I go back even further from that. So usually when I work on a new category or a new project with someone, I will go to the sales team or to the reps like you. And I would go to them and I'd go, okay, give me the buyer's timing, give me your line review timings, giving me your in store dates and we work backwards from there. And then we work out and we plan our pre development or our color palette research, like whatever we might be doing for whatever the seasonalness, the biggest season of whatever that item is. Because sometimes summer is your season. So we have mentioned to people on these episodes this week already that summer might be your big season of the year. So you can take the same advice we're giving you for Q4 for Christmas time. You can use that. Just move the dates and plan it for summer as the big time of year or back to school. Right. It's the same thing. So seasonal strategies work either way. It's just their date shift. But we would have to work back. So I gave my color palette to the members here. And my color palette actually was developed in October. So the idea. So October last year, I had to figure out before holiday 2017 what the colors are going to be for holiday 2018, because we have to.

So you're a genie.

Yeah. So I, you know, I'm like. Yeah, exactly. When you see the presentation, there is my prediction crystal ball right there.

Right, right.

Because you have to see what's going on. So now I refine it again through. As we see what's selling and what's not, I refine it through and then we finalize it in January. But we, because of Chinese New Year, orders have to go in sometimes for certain types of products before Chinese New Year to get made immediately after to make Q4 sales. So especially if we're doing new tooling or something like that. Right. We have to work the whole year to make that happen. So we have to be predicting ahead of time. And that's a crazy thing to be thinking about, that you're going to decide what next year sales are going to be before you even know what this year sales were. Absolutely crazy, huh? So let's talk a little bit about what it's like when you have a.

New product, brand new, never hit the market yet before.

Yep.

I think there's a couple of things that you have to keep in mind when you're trying to sell a product, and one of those is when are you going to actually pitch it to the retailer? Okay. Because unless we're assuming that you're already in the retailer. We assuming that or no, you might.

Be, but you might not be in that category. Or it just might be a whole new product. Yeah.

Okay. So let's assume that we're not in the retailer yet. They haven't said yes yet, which will lead to our inventory build if they want. But when you have a new product and you're pitching it, you have to, like I said, look at the timing because you're going to miss your window. And the windows are really short. They're like 30 days. So the buyers build up to their line review. They review everything over 30 days, and then they make their decisions. So like you said, everybody's a little bit different. And it's important that you find out what their timelines are. If you don't know, and if you can't get a hold of the buyer to ask them that question, assume that for holiday, you want to start talking to them in holiday of the year prior. So for holiday 2018, you're probably already too late. Right now. We're talking in July. Of course you're too late. If it were me, I would have started talking October, November. Buyers actually slow down a little bit right then because everything's locked and loaded for their holiday. So they're also starting to plan for other things at that time, too. And, or at least for me, there's two different aspects of getting products sold for holiday. One is getting it on their radar. Nobody is actually making decisions on holiday in the holiday before that. But it's important to get that into their lineup, get it on their radar, and then once you have made that contact with them, that's when you'll find out. Okay, thank you for sending me this. I'm going to be looking at these in March. I just had a buyer tell me that just two days ago. I sent it to them. I sent it early. They let me know when they're going to actually be reviewing that. Come back and we'll talk about it in September. So you can't be too early, but you can definitely be too late. So if you don't know when their timing is, I would start in October, November of the previous year for next year. So this coming October, November is when I would start looking at and trying to reach out to the buyer and find out what their timing is. I don't think that you'll be too late unless you're in hardware. So if you're talking to Lowe's or Home Depot, understand they're two years out now. Home Depot is made. I know.

Isn't that crazy?

I'm like, how do you guys even know what's going to be hot? You're missing out on so many things. But Home Depot has made some changes recently. They're bringing down their lead time. So they're trying to work now like a year to a year and a half out. So that's a little bit better. But for safe bets, October for the following year. Now, let's say you get in touch with the buyer. You're going to understand that your product is probably going to ship for holiday. Your product's probably going to ship right around now, July, August area, because it's going to need to start landing in September, October for a holiday set. Two things I want you to keep in mind. Don't build any product that nobody's giving you a PO for.

Please don't do that.

Please don't do that.

We're begging you.

Yeah. So please don't. But, yes, please, if I can tell you anything. And by the way, I know that you might be listening to this thing. Of course, I wouldn't make any product that nobody's giving me a PO for, but it's probably one of the most asked questions I get, which is, do I have to have product made in here in the US to approach retailers? And I say, please don't do that. Are buyers going to expect me to have product asap?

No, they're going to expect you to have absolutely finished, manufactured product that you're showing them. Unless you are already a vendor. You can show them prototypes when you're already a vendor of them, but if you're not a vendor yet, you can't show them that early development. It's got to be like they know that this is it. It's got all the features, it's everything that it's going to be. It just will be made in mass volume and you'll have inventory in time.

So yes to that. And the caveat is you can actually show them a prototype, but they're not going to cut you a PO until they see the production model.

Exactly.

Finished product. So you can't go to them at decision time with a prototype. You could show them a prototype back last November, in October, and then been working all season and now have a finished product so that they can help make their decision. So, yes, I guess so if we simplify that, if you start a year out, you can show them early prototype or even digital renderings. But in order to get the PO in hand, not a projection, but an actual purchase order, you have to show a production model something that's come off the line and you're just handing them one of it.

I want to interject here because one of the things that I found over sitting in a lot of buyer meetings over the years is that when you do this early stuff, they already start to see indicators. Even October, November, timeframe, they're already starting to see indicators of the things they've put in place that you don't even know about yet that might be working. That got picked up really well. The ad team loved them and they put them into all these editorial photographs. And so, like, they're starting to see some indicators of things that they've done well this year already. And so when you start showing them things early and that taps into, oh, that's like this, but for next year, like, you're clicking in their head early and that can be a really good thing.

That's right. Getting on their radar. You got to get in the queue, get in the lineup. Otherwise, it's sad to say, but I think we all do it right. We all mentally close the gates on what we're looking at. At some point, buyers have to stop looking at stuff and start making some decisions. You have to get in there before the gates close.

Right. Decision actually means to cut away. Right. So you're gonna cut away. And that's what they do. They're like, that's it. It's done. It's cut off.

Yeah, exactly. And so I think that it reminds me, too, of. And this is a total tangent, but when entrepreneurs just keep tinkering with their product.

Yeah.

And at some point, I'm like, listen, at some point, we have to produce it. And so this is something probably people that are watching this have had those issues where, man, if I just do one more thing. At some point, you have to stop and produce your product. At some point, they have to close the gates and take a look at what they have. You want to make sure you're inside the gate when that happens.

That's right.

So now inventory, again, we can't say it enough. Don't build it until they give you a PO and like I said, some buyers will send you an email that says, I think that we'll probably be purchasing about this much. That's not a PO and they're not accountable for it or responsible to buy what they said to. To you in there. The small caveat to that is Costco sometimes sends out projections, but they're official. They're an official projection that come out. The buyers will tell you that you can actually order product based on that. I still would rather wait for a PO But Costco is pretty good about filling. Following that guideline. But just somebody that told you that they're, oh, 150,000 units in an email.

No, I've never really seen them do that with anyone that they didn't already have a relationship with, though.

No, no, no. This is all. Yeah.

If you have a relationship with Costco and you happen to be selling in other categories and it's new product, I've seen them do that and. But I've always seen them follow through. Absolutely.

Yeah, exactly. Yeah, good point. Probably not projections with the new person. So I know that we're kind of.

That's okay. So I just. Yeah, let's tie it back a little.

Back in.

Yeah. So inventory strategies. So this is the thing. So if you're now in front of the buyer and you do have a finalized product, it's not as early stages of rendering or a rough prototype in any way, shape or form, but you actually got your product. I don't think it's a bad thing for you to be selling it in that holiday online. So to be selling it in the current holiday online now when you go back to meet up with them in January, you can be saying, hey, I presented this to you before and look how well it did this holiday. So now you also have a little sales traction to share with them. So if you can't afford to make a little bit.

Yeah, yeah, always sales traction is better than no sales traction. So if you can get it up on Amazon or you can get it up on your own website, or you can get it up on Walmart.com sales traction. Sales are always sales. So in sales, by the way, tell the buyer two things. One, people like the product and they're actually purchasing it. People other than your family. And then two, they're keeping it. So if they've purchased the product and they're not returning it, they're giving good feedback, they're creating good reviews. That gives the buyer confidence in your product. So don't wait. Tracy's exactly right. Don't wait and wait for the big po. I'm actually arguing with a current client about this. Right now. They just want the container order. And so we're going from person to person and they're not getting it. And I'm like, let's bring over a half container and get it up on Amazon. But they're looking at that like, well, now I'm on the hook for that inventory. Okay, let me just tell you something. If you want to be in business in the US you're going to have to be on the hook for something. And so don't be of that mind. Have some confidence in your product. Bring it over here, get it up online. Like Tracy said, sales are always good.

It's the easiest way to get purchase order, following a quicker one.

Right?

Yeah. So, I mean, I think that's so important to be thinking about. But now, you know, so let's talk a little bit about what that inventory level looks like. Like, does it all drop at once? Does it go over a few months? Are there reorders? Like, what does that usually look like for most of your clients and most of the. Of what you see at retail for the holiday season, when it's something that's.

Coming in that's seasonal, if it's seasonal, it's generally going to be one and done.

One and done. Right.

Unless your product Is, for instance, if you were selling a furniture item in Costco, their furniture set actually starts in January. January. So you might be able to sell through holiday and go into the first quarter. But generally, if it's a holiday item, it's one and done and it's going to be one drop and it has to be on time. Okay, I'll tell you a quick story. I had a client, they had a half a million dollar order. It's the biggest order they've ever had from BJ's Wholesale. And they told me the entire time everything was fine. Everything was fine. Everything was fine. Because understanding that if it's supposed to get there on, let's say, August 13, they then have to break it out, send it out to the stores. Stores are very slow at getting their program set. They know this. And so they back these times up. And it really flows very specifically.

It's not just if you've ever seen like, gone into the holiday time in like a Lowe's parking lot or a Target parking lot, and you see like containers set up in the law in the parking lot in October, some of them have to do that because they're not close enough to a distribution center to do it at one time. So when they're remote ones, that happens. This requires a ton of planning for them. So not one little piece can go wrong.

Right. And so in this story, in the end, when a product finally got on the water, our delivery date was two weeks past it was going to get there two weeks past the actual date. Now, in my whole career, I've always seen buyers, okay, I'm pissed off, but let's figure out how we're going to work with this. And maybe we can send it direct to some stores and break it out at the port and do whatever it takes. But that didn't happen at this one. The buyer canceled the order. And so this client had half a million dollars worth of product on the water that didn't have any place to go. And I could do nothing for them except say, what are you guys thinking? I asked you a million times, is it on route? Is it on time? And their feeling was they were getting pushback from the factory. And their feeling was, well, maybe we can make up a little time on the water. Maybe we can get it down to like 11 days. And they were thinking that the buyer would work with them. Most of the time I've seen the buyer work with them, but this time the buyer said no. And man, that was. It was devastating. They had taken out a loan to get that product. So I cannot be more. Okay, so here's the reason I was telling you that story. You're sitting in front of the buyer. The buyer is going to ask you what your lead time is. Okay. You have to be honest. Don't be thinking that they want to hear this or want to hear that they don't. They want to hear what it is. What is your. If your lead time is 60 days, 60 days. If it's 90 days, 90 days. If it's over 90 days, you get your lead time down.

That's why I'm a fan of what I just mentioned before the soft launch on Amazon or the soft launch on your own store, shopify, whatever you're going to do. That soft launch the previous year really helps you because you get your tooling done. You get some of these things that you might not have in order. You get the factory of made that first run and you get your lead time really dialed in through that. It's a lot of learning and hiccups happen and the only person who has to suffer if it doesn't make it on time is you. And then you got a little bit of inventory to use for next year. So that's really why I'm a fan of that.

No. Well, dry run, testing your product, seeing how the. Have you ever bought your own product online just to see how it shows up? That's all part of the process of making sure that what you're doing is really working and what the end result is going to be. But I have had.

Because it's such a big risk in a Q4 purchase.

Right. And I've had clients that want to tell the buyer what they want to hear. And I say what they want hear is honesty. Once you're partnered with the retailer, they're on your side now. They're no longer ignoring your phone calls. They're no longer putting you at bay or putting your paperwork at the bottom of the stack. Now they're as tied to you, your success as you are. And so they're not saying, hey, if it's not 30 days, we're gonna kill it. What they're saying is I need to know when your product will be here so I can back it up and give you a PO in time so that you can actually make it and produce it in time. And so that's important. So know your lead time and even add two weeks to it just in case there's a storm or it gets held up.

Strikes.

Yeah. Or it gets held up at the port or if it's food, maybe there's an inspection. Who knows? You never know. So add a little bit of cushion.

To that, especially coming up, because we just had the announcement today about the tariff changes that are going to be happening. That means there's going to be a lot of paperwork hassle because there's going to be this whole craziness of, like, is the subject to one. They got to look it up on a list. They don't just know, like, there's going to be a lot of extra time needed to prep your shipments. It's just going to be in the beginning, so going to be a hassle.

So plan for it, Plan for that and don't be afraid. Whatever port you're bringing your product into, find out what brokers are, work exclusively with that port and call them. They'll be super honest with you and say, hey, what are the issues that you're seeing with product coming in right now? What's the actual time from the time it hits the port to the time that it gets on a rail and heads out? They're going to be super honest with you. But do that homework. And then it also is a great way to vet brokers is to which ones give you the information that you're looking for, because you may need a.

Broker, you need communication with them because it's so true. There's so many things that happen, and if you don't have a good communicator there, that's probably the biggest detriment.

Right. So here's your last concern, I would think, because this is also a question I get asked a lot, which is, how am I going to pay for it?

Yeah.

How much inventory are they going to want and how much is that going to cost? And should I leverage my house to pay for this inventory? And the answer is, I can't tell you financially what to do or what to risk. I will tell you that the buyer's job is to order the product that they need to set the space. They're not trying to gouge you. They're just doing their job. And so if it's 100,000 units, that's what it is. If it's 200,000 units, that's what it is.

If it's.

And depending on how much you read your contract, you're going to know, am I going to have to take product back at the end of the season? And here's where. And this is where I think Tracy put this online right now, is what do you do when you think the buyer Wants too much inventory. And it's like telling the doctor that they're wrong about your prognosis. Right, right. They're the expert.

I've had it happen before, that's why. And I'm like, that's too much product. They're not going to move that much. Like you just. I mean, I've worked in the industry long enough in certain categories. Feel like it's too much.

Yeah. Their job is to make sure they don't run out. They don't really care if they have to send some back to you. So that's not really their big concern. But it is yours. So do a little bit of due diligence and research and you can ask the buyer, do you have like product last year and what did it sell and why are you asking for this much? When you're set, how much is in reserve and what is your sell through rate per day? And do you really think that you'll move through this product? If you don't, you can always say to the buyer, let's say if they're asking for 150,000 units, I'm more comfortable. I know that it's only going to take 80,000 units to set the stores. I'm more comfortable with 110,000 units or 100,000 units simply because I don't know that we'll move through that many. But have that conversation. Most buyers are going to say, why do you think that? Don't be afraid to answer that question.

Yeah. And as long as you're not rude about it or pushy about it, there's no reason not to question it. So a few years ago we were doing a gaming ottoman. It was like this ottoman that had speakers in it and it flipped up and you sat in it and it was at Target. And the first year they bought 12,000 pieces or something like that and they sold out of it in two and a half weeks after Black Friday. So, I mean, it went fast because there still should have been some around for two more weeks because that year between Thanksgiving and Christmas, so they should have had a little more. And so the next year they go and they reorder the same amount. And I was like, you know, you guys ran out of that. But not only that, I question this because there's a new PlayStation or something launching. And so whenever you have a new PlayStation launching or a new unit of some kind, you have residual sales that happen within that department. And I think you're going to leave money on the table if you don't order a Few more thousand. And the buyer said, I hear you, but we think sales overall are going to be down this year. Because it was a slow year, we think sales are going to be down. So we think you're wrong. We think that 12,000 is the inflated number accounting for that. And we said, okay, you're the buyer, you're the expert. They were out in a week.

In a week. I thought you were gonna be gone in a week. I thought you were gonna tell me that.

I did my job and questioned it on behalf of my client because I had the industry information. And you have to remind them of that. Cause they don't always know, like, this was a new buyer to the gaming category. So they weren't up on what the manufacturers are doing. It's your job to be up on what's happening in your industry. And if you see something that's going to happen and going to roll out or a movie that's going to come out that's going to tie into something that you're doing, you got to mention it to them, because they may not be in the know. Don't assume that they are. And then let them sit back and consider it. Don't push that on them. Just offer up that information. Let them consider it. She turned us down and she was wrong.

Yeah, lesson learned. So you're coming at it from a different perspective of they're buying too little and you think that they need more. So both of those situations will exist. Remember, the conversation you're having is not with a doctor. It's not about surgery. This is about getting the most sales you can and limiting your risk as much as possible, all at the same time.

Yeah, I did have the more example happen to us at Costco. So it was a TV stand, and it was going in for Black Friday. And they very typically do a TV stand on Black Friday because they sell Black Friday TVs and they go hand in hand. And so we were like, wow, that's a lot of inventory. I mean, I don't think they've ever done this much before. But they had big plans for a very early January promo that was going to go out at the start of the furniture rollout. And they didn't want to have the delay or have to reset. They just wanted to shift the inventory within the store. And so when we pushed back and asked them about that, that's the answer they gave. And that was a perfectly reasonable, great answer. It just means you don't have to follow up with extra shipment. So it works out for you too. But you got to ask, right?

You do have to ask. And buyers typically know their business unless they're brand new. Costco buyers especially know their business. But don't be afraid to be a partner and ask the question. Don't be afraid to say why that much. Why not that much? Don't you want to think about this?

You do know what's going on in the industry that I don't know about or in your business?

Yeah, you do know the trend. So don't be afraid to ask that question. And then if you're a member of product lines hazards, if you're in our system, whatever the buyer tells you, you can come on the platform and ask us and say, does this sound reasonable? You can bounce it off. In fact, there's a bunch of people that you can bounce off here.

Six of us on there with a lot of retail experience. There's about six of us, joe, there's you, there's me. So there's a lot. And genomex, they have a lot of experience in that area. So you mean you're talking about a lot of people with some experience, a great experience in that. And so if it doesn't sound right to you and you're worried, come ask us.

Yeah, that's what we're here for. And that's. I guess probably I have clients that keep me on retainer just to sit in on buyer meetings on the phone and I don't say anything, I just listen. And then they call me afterwards and say, what did all that mean?

I love it. You're a translator.

Yeah, exactly. I translate buyer.

Because buyer speak is its own world, Right?

Exactly. And so it's really helpful for them. You guys have that times six. All you have to do is just bring back the info. So back to affording it. Don't be afraid and don't think that it looks bad if you fact your po. That's not uncommon, especially for new suppliers. And even if you have the money to buy the product, should you really lay out all your money for 5%, you could factor it and save your cash reserved for something else. So don't be afraid to do that. I wouldn't just make that. Well, I guess you can. For those of you who don't know what factoring is, that's where a company will step in and actually fund the po for you and for a percentage. And then they are actually listed as the person that will get the receivable for that P.O. with the retailer. So the retailer doesn't cut you a Check. When it's time to pay the bill, they cut the factoring company a check, they take their money back that they loaned you plus their percentage, and they send you the rest. So it's a great first way if you don't have that money. And I use it as a don't be afraid thing.

And also, a lot of factoring companies can really help you with sort of that vendor approval process. So, like, they don't submit the money until the vendor's done everything. And if you don't feel comfortable and you've never done that before and you don't understand and don't want to release the money too soon, sometimes just using them because they have capability in that, and they're providing that service because they're not about to release their money unless they're absolutely sure the product is what it's supposed to be. That's a great way to go about it. Your first time, too. So you got that as a little cushion.

Yeah. And also the factoring company that I use that I recommend for my clients also does invoice financing. So once the PO is done and produced and delivered, they'll pay your invoice for you for another 5%, and then they wait for the 90 days or the 60 days for the retailer to pay them. So not only did you get financing to. To produce it, you got paid immediately, and it only cost you overall, maybe 10% total. It's a great way to get through your first big PO without being so scary.

Yes, yes. Without being scary. So let's have that factoring company come on the platform and do a single episode. So we're bringing on some special guests now and again.

Okay.

So that they can answer some questions, but also so that they can have a recording of it there for other people who just joined the platform and want to know what is factoring all about? What does that mean? What does the company do? We can just do a little exploratory interview of them and kind of get a sense for that. So let's invite them on.

Perfect, Tim.

And we'll do that. So, any parting thoughts? Crazy stories about things that have really gone wrong at holidays, other than a.

Half a million dollars. Like I said, that was actually my first order ever in 23 years ever being canceled, I've never had a PO buyers have always said, you know, you might get a thousand lashes, but in the end they're like, geez, I committed to that product. I really needed to be here. So let's figure this out. Also understand that Buyers have been around a long time too. They've been through it all and so they can help at those times. As far as things that have gone wrong, like I said, never anything as catastrophic is that I've always had things that are a couple days late or stuff that gets held up at the border or it's always for buyers, they really slow down at the holiday time. But for suppliers, it's a nail biting situation. Making sure your product shows up on.

Time, daily on the phone, is it here?

You got two phones working. When's it going to get released from customs and the whole thing. So I guess my parting thoughts is you can't prepare enough, you can't do enough homework. And as Tracy said, dry run, not even a dry run, but soft launches of your product. Even in smaller retailers, specialty retailers, mom and pop retailers, is still going through the process of bringing product in, taking in a po, shipping product and receiving payment. It's still all part of leading you up to this big retailer. I know you all want the big Costco order and it's going to come or the Target or the whatever those orders are going to come. But you have to move through the processes to get there. Be careful what you wish for because sometimes you could get it all at the same time. Yeah.

You know one of my favorite people, Brian from Uggs Boots, I can think of him calling Brian Uggs, but I. What is his last name? It's going to come to me anyway. The founder of Uggs Boots, this is what he says. When you're birthing a brand, you can't skip straight to adulthood.

You can't skip straight to adulthood. You got to go through toddlers, you got to go through the preteens, you got to go through the teens, go through the pre. Adult, you got to go through all of that because systems get put in place, processes get put in place, team gets put in place. And those things need to happen in order for you to get where you want to go as a mature brand who's selling and cranking it out and getting those Costco's orders day in and day out and hitting to be, you know, $300,500,000,000 companies. Right? That's where you got to go if that's the brand you're building. And so these soft launches, these smaller retailers, they are the way to go. I know it's hard to be patient. You just want to be that multimillion dollar brand overnight. But it never happens overnight. Ugg Boots did not happen overnight. Dozen years later, he was still getting banks turning him down, saying he was a fad.

Right. Stuff that happens overnight, remember, stuff that happens overnight can go away overnight. And so it's the brands that build all the way up. And that doesn't mean that you could get a call from a buyer at Bed, Bath and Beyond saying, hey, I saw your product at this mom and pop shop next to my house. I dig it. I want to get into that. And then all of a sudden you're ramping up faster, but it was because you did some of the small things first. And then the last thing I would say is there's nothing like vetting your product, like selling it on Amazon and getting hundreds of customers to actually use it. There may be a glitch in it that you don't even know about because not enough people have purchased it. You definitely don't want to sell 100,000 units to Walmart and find out that there's a glitch and they send them all back. You want to get that out of the way early. And that's what a soft launch is also for. So, parting thoughts? Do your homework. Do the soft launch. Take the time to get it done right. Don't be afraid if you get the big order. Don't commit to things that you can't follow through on. Don't tell the buyer just something they want to hear because you think that's what they want to hear. Always be honest and walk away if it doesn't sound right or if it puts you at too much risk. There'll always be another opportunity somewhere else. Most of all, have fun. Be passionate about your product because you.

Want to get that big wins in the fourth quarter. That's your big time of year. So now that's actually one quick question I want to ask you before the end, because Brenda was saying that in the Brenda creamy who was talking about our Amazon planning, she was saying that for products that you sell year round, she sees a 40% boost in the holidays, unless it's a seasonal holiday item, which is totally different. But if it's a regular item all year round, 40% boost. What do you see at retail?

Retail could, I would say anywhere from 25 to 40%, depending on what the product is.

Right. So it's not quite as extreme as people think it is.

Yeah. Now there's just more people in the stores, so more eyes on your product is going to be more sales, bottom line. But yeah, it can be anywhere from 20 to 40 and then it could also be 100%. I mean, it just Depends on what the product is and where it's at.

That's right. So planning guys, I don't think any one of us can stress that enough on this platform. Every single one of us say this. Every single episode that I've listened to you all planning, it all comes down to good planning and communication. And so while Tim can't have a better communicator and planner than you and I know that. And so that's why they should not only be tuning into your office hours and asking great questions, they should also be tuning into your podcast. On the Shelf. On the Shelf, I absolutely love. Because you talk a lot about these things. Like you just get out of a buyer meeting and you discuss what it was like.

That's right.

So it's a really good real world example of what it can be like. So we'll be hearing maybe later in the year some of those holiday conversations you're having.

That'll be fun. Yeah. On the shelfnow.com so, yeah, go to there and check that out. Submit some questions. Happy to talk about anything that you guys need. Thank you so much, Tracy, for having me on. It was fun as always.

That's right. So seasonal inventory strategies, seasonal planning strategies, all the things that you need to know about retail. Thank you all for listening. This is Product Launch Hazard.

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