In this solo YouTube presentation, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club delivers his annual 2026 market outlook covering six major assets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold, Bitcoin and the S&P 500. He opens with New Year wishes and a brief macro backdrop, emphasizing ongoing global rate‑cut cycles, geopolitical tensions, and the lingering impact of recent wars. For each instrument he provides a longer‑term technical perspective (annual horizon), identifies key support/resistance zones, notes divergence patterns (bearish or bullish), and outlines expected corrective moves (range, ABCD, pull‑backs) before the next directional thrust. Specific price targets are quoted (e.g., EUR/USD 1.225‑1.40, GBP/USD 1.40+, gold $4,000‑$4,500 with corrections, USD/JPY peak then downside, Bitcoin potential rally to $150‑$200k after a short‑term bearish correction, S&P 500 continued upside with interim dips). Throughout, Ribakov promotes the Home Trader Club’s educational platform, private mentoring, and a partnership with Eightcap Broker, urging viewers to subscribe and join the community for real‑time trading education. The tone is conversational yet analytical, with cautious optimism for most markets and a skeptical view of short‑term bullish spikes in gold and Bitcoin.
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What's up guys, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome back to trading. Uh, and this is the first week of 2026. Before the charts, I would like to take the opportunity and to wish you a wonderful, successful year ahead, mainly good health to be able to carry on with all the charts and all the drama we have in trading world once in a while. So really, from the bottom of my heart, the whole Home Trader Club team behind and everyone involved, I want to wish you and your families and your beloved ones a really, really good year ahead. And I really hope the crazy Wars we were exposed to in the last years in different parts of the world. I really hope it comes to the end, and I really, really, really hope to have better days for the world and for each and every one of us. So happy new year! And now in this video, I would like to go and share with you my annual analysis, annual forecast for 2026 of the major interest of instruments. Of course, I cannot go over the, you know, hundreds of instruments, but the major ones we will be doing in this video. And yeah, let's begin. A quick reminder that, as always, thanks to Eightcap Broker for their support in our community. You can enjoy all the offers as long as they are there and get your access to all of our projects, including the Home Trader Club, all the trading systems, all the marketplace, private mentoring sessions, and So much more. Just follow the link below this video in the description. So the first one for today, the euro dollar. We would be looking in a longer-term perspective, not in the shorter one, simply because we are talking about annual forecasts. So unlike we usually do in our weekly forecasts in this channel. This is a longer-term perspective. So what is happening on the EUR/USD? Basically, like all the other pairs against the dollar, the market expects the Federal Reserve cut more and more and more rates. Therefore, we— because Think about it. Eurozone cut the rates. New Zealand cut the rates. Many, many Canada cut the rates. Many countries already cutting the rates. The ones that were not so aggressive with the cuts yet—the U.S. and the U.K. So the Eurozone was already doing that, and right now the feeling here is that there is still more. To the upside due to all this expectation from the Federal Reserve to cut the rates, from the eurozone to be able to hold maybe little more cuts but not aggressive. So if we look at that on a longer-term perspective, this is the all-time high we have, this is the available low we have. Of course, you can scroll back in the available data and use the highs and lows you have there. But this is pretty much the middle, right? So the idea here is pretty simple: the longer the price is out of the middle zone for the long term, the stronger the pressure would be to get back there. Yes, it could take time. We are talking about years here. This is a long-term analysis. But if we are on the bottom below the middle, then the market will try to get back to the middle. So that's exactly my expectations: that eventually the euro would find a way to get back here. And retest the previous swing highs. But once it is there, I think that we should be able— this is the first key zone here, and that's the second key zone. Why this is such an important zone? Because this is where the sellers were basically in control. Let me just mark it here in a circle. Sellers took control here, sellers took control here, and this area was not yet retested. So I do believe that we should see the 122 up to 125 being reached, but there is a chance that we would even see 135 up to 139, 140 being retested before the euro would actually be able to complete the rally. But as I said before, from these levels I do expect some rejection, so either here or here we should be looking for sell opportunities. So to summarize the EUR/USD view, I believe that we should see during 2026 the euro to retest the area of 1.225. Once it's there and completes the bearish divergence, I believe we should be able to see good corrective moves to the downside, and that's how I would expect the EUR/USD to play during 2026. GBP/USD is our next one. Beautiful long-term opportunities are here, and as I mentioned at the beginning when we were talking about the EUR/USD, UK and the US are among the only ones who were not Aggressively cutting the rates. Aggressively, yeah, but more often than the other ones. So when we take that into consideration, the pound-dollar completed these beautiful 3 waves with a major bullish divergence, which usually means we enter some corrective cycle. And I would expect here ABCD or some sort of a range. To continue for a long time. But that also means that buy the dips usually is the smart choice to go with. If we take that as the low and take that as the high, then the center is here. This is where the price should be pushing for the long-term analysis. Yes, but that's pretty much where we should expect it to. So all that in— we take it into consideration. Plot here the levels. Let's just throw that one moment. Plot here the levels. I'll put here the rectangle on the higher time frame, and this is the zone we are talking about, 140 plus, that I believe that should be retested. And if we go to the weekly chart That's where I would expect this cycle actually to complete. Okay, get there, complete some divergence, retest the monthly resistance levels, and from there very likely to see the GBP/USD pushing down. So to summarize the GBP/USD view, I do not think the bullish run is over. We might see on the short term some retraces Maybe even something like that as a deeper drop. But after that, I do expect the pound-dollar to retest the 140+ to complete its cycle and go there for corrections. And let's talk about the gold. The gold was soaring during 2025. Especially after breaking this range. So the biggest question now is what is next? Before we actually talk about the charts, if you are new to our channel, first of all, thanks for watching, and I want to invite you to subscribe to the channel. Enjoy all the content we upload during the year for you here— trading opportunities, market analysis, weekly opportunities, uh, and of course educational content that will help you in your trading. I also want to invite you to our family, the Home Trader Club. Enjoy our full courses, comprehensive, complete media zone, real-time trading education and real-time trading opportunities. Once you are in, go here to the Education Center, Where to Start, okay? Then you would be able to enjoy all the courses we have here, and then you would be able to enjoy our real-time Education, real-time trading opportunities, and the Media Zone, of course, full list of webinars is there for you. So join our family with the link below this video in the description. So gold created a major, major, I honestly think unbelievable at some point, run where it is flirting around the $4,000-$4,500 levels. And it is around all-time overbought conditions. So usually— now there are many things behind, uh, of course the crazy massive purchases from all the governments, including the biggest one, China, Russia, US, uh, um, that contributes of course, but mainly behind the scenes Behind the scenes, the fear of the AI risks, the fear of the world war, of course, with everything happened behind the scenes, the fear of BRICS and the replacement of the world's, let's say, need of the US dollar, and so much more. So that helped the gold to make a run that looking backwards is absolutely beyond any imagination. And the biggest question is, is it over? So to be honest, I am very doubtful. I don't think it's over. I do think though that we should see and experience some corrective moves, either a range or ABCD or maybe even one straight shot back to the range. But I don't think that for the long run the bullish momentum, the bullish Pressure is over. So from my point of view, yes, I would expect retraces. I would expect corrections during 2026. But looking very far away, I think there is much more to come. So if we take all that and we go to the lower time frame, we should we can see here that we start to see some slowdown while the market was making the highs. This is basically the first time where we start to see a major slowdown. On the histogram of the MACD and the RSI. Of course, in such conditions, all the indicators do not mean too much, right? Of course, indicators indicate, price dictates, no argument about that. And behind geopolitical waves and moves, the indicators are really not useful as much as in most more technical regular market conditions. But still, it is an indication that the buyers are getting tired. And with all the conditions here, you can see how big the previous waves were, and you can see that the current wave starts to be smaller and smaller and slowing down, which makes me think that yes, we are ahead of a correction. Of course, we could see still some bounces, some rallies, but as 2026 begins, I believe that we should see that dropping down, which could provide great buy opportunities if you missed the crazy rally that you experienced— that the market actually was doing in 2025. So to summarize the gold, I believe that we are not Even close to all-time highs in the long future. I do believe that we should be able to see retraces during 2026, which after could provide major buy opportunities on gold. Now let's talk about the dollar yen. New government, new prime minister, old-fashioned moves. There are tons of reasons behind the dollar yen. Rally. The main ones are the huge deal they have with the US and the interest to keep that, um, uh, cheap. But their own economy would be destroyed if that continues for too long. Uh, so the government was— or not the government, the central bank was already hiking the rates, not enough in a hawkish view. Which makes me think that the beginning of the year could bring dollar-yen to complete these kind of waves here. But I definitely think that this peak, once created during the year, should be able to complete this crazy cycle. And something politically, geopolitically, financially, economically will happen behind the scenes and will trigger a major turnaround on all that. So my view on the dollar-yen, especially now as it breaks this range, that we should be able to see dollar-yen completing its crazy rally. But once we are able to see the weekly create final waves with bearish divergence and the monthly creates its own divergence. Pay attention also to this dynamic resistance inside the channel, and the closer we get there, the stronger the pressure on the dollar yen. And I believe from there we will be experiencing major moves down. And the final one for this video, the Bitcoin. A lot of questions were received during the last few months. Do I believe the bottom was achieved? The answer is no. The way I see that, first of all, for the long run, I have no doubt that this will settle the bottom and we are going ahead again for a bullish run, probably to complete the all-time high, $150,000 up to $200,000, definitely possible target. But on the shorter term, The weekly is still under a major bearish divergence, which usually means we are ahead of ABCD correction or going to move inside the range for a while, which on the perspective of 2026, I believe that rallies should be sold. Key levels to pay attention for that is of course the broken support becomes a resistance here. Let me mark the level for you, up to the highs which create the supply levels here and here. So we are talking about the $100,000, slightly below, as a first major possible level. We are talking about $108,000, and we are talking about up to $115,000 $115,000 as the levels that I believe the rally should be blocked, and from there we should be able to see some sell opportunities. So to summarize that, I do not think the bearish move is over on the Bitcoin. I think these rallies will provide more, uh, move to the downside. On the other hand, if the Bitcoin is able to go and to clean the level of $75,000 and to complete this major cycle bullish divergence there, I think that then it could be a major buy opportunity in this year. And final one, S&P 500 major rally, no completed cycles, the buyers are here and with Trump policies Very likely to assume that this one has more to offer, but on the shorter scale, I do expect the drops to take place, provide corrective moves that will then offer further buy opportunities. So I, again, I don't think unless something crazy would happen, we know Wars, political, geopolitical unexpected changes. We all remember what happened during COVID So unexpected things could happen and could cause a drop. But for the longer run, longer view, I don't think the bullish cycle is yet fully completed. I was expecting it to complete here, but the divergence was never completed and reversal signs never took place. Therefore, the again the cycle is not over. As simple as that. So what the way I see that these rallies probably will finish create retraces ideally back to the previous lows. We also have a major resistance here, and from there I believe the S&P has more to offer to the upside. So if we have to look at that, um, that on the longer scale, I think that we are ahead of a peak correction and then further rallies. Pay attention to this massive major rising supportive line, this trend line. Pay attention to the lows and the broken resistances. All these are key levels to hold and to provide further buy opportunities. it is. That's it. Thanks for watching. If you are new to our channel, please subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. Enjoy all the content we upload here for you in 2026. And once again, I want to invite you to our family, the Home Trader Club. Enjoy our courses, enjoy our real-time education and opportunities. The link is below this video in the description. Best to you and yours. Ciao. Happy New Year and all the best wishes on earth to you and your beloved ones. Thanks for watching. Good trading. All the best, and I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.
