Vladimir Ribakov analyzes AUD/NZD price action at a key volume zone where a bullish hidden divergence on MACD suggests the downtrend is slowing. New Zealand's recent 75-basis-point rate hike has likely peaked, aligning with a potential rally toward supply levels identified by Fibonacci expansion.
Chapters
Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Traders Academy Club, and in this video I would like to share with you my analysis on Aussie Kiwi. This would be a quick follow-up to the analysis I've made on the weekly forecast. Which, by the way, if you missed this video, make sure to watch. You will understand why exactly I was after sell towards this zone. And now this zone been reached, let's talk about what is coming next. So again, make sure you watch, uh, this, uh, weekly forecast if you still didn't. Okay, so let's begin with the follow-up, but before that I would like to ask your support and your help. If you appreciate these videos and you find them useful, please hit the like button below the video and subscribe to the channel if you still didn't. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit by watching that, as it is open for the community. And thank you very much in advance, of course, to all those of you who take the time, support, and help. So according to the daily chart, we are reaching to the key level that I was talking about in the weekly forecast. Look at this weekly and monthly volume area. Look at all this consolidation here, back and forth. Buyers and sellers are fighting each other here, trying to find the next direction. If we go to the weekly chart, you will see that this is a massive volume based on the volume profile. Indicator. To download my indicators, go directly to my blog vladimirribakov.com, then follow the tab of my strategies and courses. Click on Vladimir's In-House Indicators. This is the marketplace I'm developing together with my team. And here you would be able to find all the indicators you would like. Uh, you can see how critical this area is based on the weekly and the monthly levels. Besides that, this is a retest of the previously broken channel or falling resistance line. So we are now entering a key area, okay, according to the weekly analysis. Besides that, the pair is building up a potential bullish hidden divergence. Okay, as you can see, there is an uptrend here where the price creates higher highs, higher lows. And if we compare higher lows on the chart versus lower lows on the MACD histogram indicator, we will see that while the price is making higher lows, the market— the indicator, sorry— is making lower lows. Uh, which is creating inverted or hidden divergence, bullish hidden divergence, um, divergence. So I believe this is right here the zone where it should slowly, slowly, slowly, uh, slow down and start to create the reversal. And the daily chart will show that in the best way possible. So if I plot Fibonacci expansions on this ongoing wave to the downside, the first wave with the correction, and let's plot the second Fibonacci on the next wave and its correction. You will see that we are here also in an amazing 100 and 100 Fibonacci expansion zone. Okay, besides that, the daily chart has a potential bullish divergence coming in play. So what we need is this daily bullish divergence To create, which means this to become a low and the moving average of the MACD to switch and shift to the upside. If we think about it, this is a technical view. Fundamentally speaking, yesterday New Zealand increased the rates by 75 points. This is the biggest rate hike they did in a long, long, long, long time. Okay, now with the market reacted positively to that on the last, anticipating towards that and reacting to that, uh, in the very strong way for the New Zealand dollar and other New Zealand pairs. Now it is past the interest rate hike, and yep, after the reaction comes the time to slow down, fundamentally speaking. It should be happening as well. So what I will want to see here, okay, is the slowdown while the market is continuously creating the lower low, lower highs, but in slow pace, and the bullish divergence building up on the moving average. So while the chart is creating the lower lows, right, in a slow momentum the indicator, in that case the MACD, will start making the higher lows, identifying of a potential, uh, bullish divergence and the turnaround. And when this happens around the zone we just spoke about, I believe the next rally is basically inevitable. And if we take a look on a higher time frame, look where the daily massive zone Is okay. We are talking here about the 110. So it's not only the huge volume area, but it is also the supply zone from the previous, from the current downtrend, and also it's very close to the supply, as you can see here and here, from the previous uptrend. Okay. So there is a great, great, great chance that as soon as we form this bottom I'm talking about, and the bullish divergence builds up on the daily and the four-hour chart. We should see the price shooting back upside towards this key zone. Let me know what do you think about that and what are your anticipation and from this pair and how would you expect this one to work from here and share your view in the comment section below. Thank you very much, of course, in advance. So thanks for your time watching this video. I wish you a very successful trading and I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
