Vladimir Ribakov analyzes AUD/NZD across multiple timeframes, identifying bearish divergences on the weekly chart and three consecutive lower highs on the 4-hour chart. He projects key support around 110, with potential targets near 108-107.5 if that level breaks.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Traders Academy Club, and in this video I would like to share with you a very interesting trading opportunity developing on the Aussie Kiwi, okay, Australian and New Zealandian pair. Um, Very interesting multi-timeframe analysis starting from the weekly timeframe and, um, with wave structures we already see on the 4-hour chart. So let's go to the chart and see what do we have here, why, and what do I expect from this pair to develop and, um, how I expect the price to go. And, um, one request, if you find these videos useful and helpful, please show your support back. Hit this like button, a few words in the comment section would be a huge help. And of course, thank you very much in advance to all those of you who take the time and to share your help. So, uh, on the weekly time frame, as I said, we already have a very interesting retest Of the swing highs, swing high, swing high, swing high. This zone been retested, and we created a beautiful harami on the weekly time frame. And look at this bearish moving average divergence, histogram divergence, and RSI divergence. While the price making higher highs, we already start to see lower highs on all the indicators. That's a strong solid indication that the buyers are getting. Uh, exhausted, tired, um, or the price simply reaches the area where we could expect the buyers to start and get rid of some of their positions. So with that being said, from the weekly time frame we go down to the daily chart. And on a daily chart, also on all of these bullish trends, we can see where the bearish divergence started. There is one little concern I have here, and that's that on the most recent 2 highs here there is no divergence. That opens up a very, I would say, low chance, but still low probability, but still possible scenario of final rally, like, uh, one more final high until the divergence completes. That, that's the second scenario of these for this pair, and then a sell-off, a big sell-off. But the first scenario which I want to share is taking into consideration the missing part of the daily time frame. However, the weekly is already there, right? Only daily is missing, weekly is already there. Uh, here is what starts to happen. Here we can clearly see the 4-hour chart waves— 3 lower highs, lower lows without any ending conditions. That's a pretty solid, decent, um, decent sign that the sellers start to show their interest. With 3 lower highs, lower lows, there are 2, uh, usual scenarios that the price follows. First one, we get some sort of ABCD or a range. It could be in 2 waves or slightly more. And before the breakouts take place, And the price dives down. The other scenario is a correction until a bearish hidden divergence comes in play. Okay, and this hidden divergence could be built this way. So we do have a trending structure making lower highs, lower lows. One more pullback to make lower highs on the chart, right, versus higher highs on the indicator. This would be a strong indication that sellers might really be ready to take the control. So that's pretty much exact the scenarios I follow. I want to see these waves taking place. Ideally, a bearish hidden divergence comes in play, and then with the break below this ABCD or range consolidation, I'll be expecting to see further move down. By the way, If you are wondering with what instruments I draw on my screen and what are these amazing multi-timeframe levels I have here, these are indicators on my trading arsenal. You can download them, you can follow the links below this video in the description, or if you go to the blog, uh, which you can find here Okay, so my strategies and courses, uh, in-house indicators, and you would find all of my tools here. Okay, many of them are available also in a free version, so go explore, download, install, and enjoy them. Also make sure not to forget, uh, we are back to publish our weekly Forex forecast in text version. Okay, so I publish usually my weekly forecast during the weekend, and at the beginning of the week, um, my team publishes the, uh, text version. So you can also find it in the blog, and it will— it's there for you for easy follow-up. So, uh, back to the Aussie, um, Kiwi. 2 scenarios, as I explained. One is the correction until we do have a hidden divergence— lower highs on the chart, higher highs on the indicator to give a further bearish continuation sign. Okay, and then I expect a further move down. Second scenario will be a bit more rare but still possible: final rally until the daily completes the divergence and the false breakout, and then a big dive down. What targets can we expect when the move starts to move, uh, starts to happen? So first of all, the daily volume zone, as we can see here next to the swing low, approximately around the 110, maybe slightly higher. And if we manage to break that down finally, then I would not be surprised if we will see the Aussie Kiwi drops as low as to 108, 107.50 area. That's my view on the Aussie Kiwi. I believe on the next several days, maybe weeks, it will be a very interesting pair to follow, as I do expect to see, um, very interesting technical waves developing here. Let me know, what do you think about, uh, this, uh, pair? How do you expect it to move? Uh, is that the end of the bullish view from your point of view, or, um, we still have room? Share with us your thoughts in the comment section, and thanks for your time watching this video. I wish you and yours all the best. Happy trading, and I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
