Vladimir Ribakov analyzes AUD/NZD after a short-sell setup bounced off supply and broke a 4-hour trend line with bearish MACD divergence. He identifies demand zones, a 100% Fibonacci expansion, and oversold RSI as reversal signals, then outlines entry criteria for a long: multiple false lows, higher highs and lows, and volume support.
Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video I would like to share with you my technical analysis on the Australian New Zealand, or Aussie Kiwi as we all know it. This will be a follow-up on the sell idea I published in my YouTube Actually, it was on YouTube Shorts, and in case you've missed it, here is a quick reminder of the sell setup.
Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and here is my analysis on the Aussie Kiwi and my sell plan on this pair. The first thing we can see here is that the pair is bouncing directly off an important swing high zone, creating a massive supply area. Next thing After making sequence of higher highs, higher lows on the candles, we start to make lower highs, lower lows. Next important moment here is the break of the rising trend line that is created right now on the 4-hour chart. Despite the market is or was making higher highs, the MACD moving average making clear lower highs, completing a bearish divergence. I believe the break below this trend line is the first sign that a bearish corrective movement is coming.
So after this beautiful sell setup we saw, the market makes the bearish move down and takes us all the way in between the 38 down to 50% of the daily Fibonacci retrace levels. So the biggest question is, what is next? And I want to show you the levels where I will be looking for my buy opportunities and to explain how and what I want to see on the chart to make me start buying this pair. So we saw the Fibonacci levels. Let's talk about the classical demand zones we have here. I will zoom in a little bit to present what we have. So on the wave up, right as we were building these bullish waves upside, the market was creating a beautiful bounce right here. Okay, look at these, all these candles. Look where the close and open prices for these 4-second following candles happen to be and where the lowest low happened to be, right at that key zone. If we are looking on the sequence from the previous, previous bearish move from, uh, the September 2022, you can see also sequence of lower highs, lower lows. Look where the most recent untested level is meeting us right here, and that's again within the same zone. Remember the 50% Fibonacci I just showed you before? Bam! We have a classical combination here. Fantastic level. Besides that, this is also a potential bullish hidden divergence while the market makes. Higher lows, the indicator MACD histogram potentially building up at lower lows or a bullish hidden divergence. The next step is to drop to the 4-hour chart. And here is a very interesting set of facts I see here dropping down Fibonacci expansion on these ongoing waves. And we see that the instrument is very close to the 100% expansion. Moreover, look at the RSI building and setting itself on oversold conditions. Usually such conditions are the beginning of reversal signs, so the market is very likely to start and setting reversal signs on 4-hour or 1-hour. What are the reversal signs? Slower lower highs and lower lows, and ideally eventually start making here some fake lows. Okay, low pullback, low pullback, low pullback. This is how we know the sellers are very likely losing their grip, losing their control. And on the 1-hour chart, this is where we were very likely to see that happen. Okay, something like that would be slightly an ideal scenario— 2 or more false breakouts before the market takes place, reverses, and makes the higher highs. Another very important factor we will want to see here is a bullish divergence. Okay, so while the market will make lower lows— again, assuming it will, because we can't predict the market. This is what we anticipate, build a plan, and then we trade the plan. Okay, so while the market makes the lower lows, we will want to see the indicator making these higher lows. MACD moving averages. Okay, this way would be— we would know, bam, we have classical reversal signs. And when that happens, what I want to see here is the market starting building up higher highs, higher lows on the candles. So what we want is, don't forget, we have a level, okay, we have a beautiful zone. So what? We also have a massive volume zone, as you can see here. This is based on my KTLI or Key Trading Levels indicator. You can download that in my blog. So we do have a level, we do the Fibonacci, we have the extension, we have a demand zone. Does that guarantee a buy? No, we need the buyers to show their interest. How do the buyers show their interest? When they manage to create reversal signs, or okay, in that case It should be the fake lows as I just presented and some interest. And their interest is usually that at the end of a bearish move, they start to create higher highs, higher lows. Because when buyers take control, they manage to do what? Create higher highs, higher lows. That would be the case where I'll be looking to buy the Aussie Kiwi. So that's all for this video. I hope you enjoyed the sell opportunity I shared with you just short time ago, and I hope you will enjoy a potential buy that this trade is building up. I would like to take the opportunity and to invite you to join us in our trading family, the Home Trader Club, and enjoy all our trading courses, real-time trading education, and real-time trading opportunities. Join us with the link below this video in the description. I hope to see you with us. I wish you and yours all the very best. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
