In this video, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club examines the market reaction following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, highlighting the immediate anti‑dollar moves across major FX pairs and the mixed signals in equity markets. He discusses the lingering risks of sustained high rates—particularly pressure on the banking system and consumer debt—and how these macro factors could influence future Fed actions. Ribakov then provides a detailed technical analysis of the NASDAQ, noting overbought conditions, bullish momentum on the Bollinger Bands, and emerging bearish divergences that may signal a short‑term correction. He follows with a similar technical outlook for EUR/USD, outlining an ABCD correction, potential third‑wave completion, and price targets around 1.13‑1.15. Throughout, he offers concrete trade ideas (sell opportunities on NASDAQ, dip‑buying EUR/USD), references specific indicator readings (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands), and promotes his community tools and partnerships with Mugen Markets and Morgan Markets. The video concludes with a call to engage in the Home Trader Club for further education and real‑time trading opportunities.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video I want to talk about the impact the market had the day after the Federal Reserve holding the rates for the first time. Not surprisingly, but for the first time after a long, long, long, long period where the Federal Reserve holding the rates and also starts to hint that the end is close. They might still go and hike, I'll talk about it in a moment, but the end is close. Um, so that's it. Did the market just turn around and we are going for all-time highs? Very possible scenario. However, I'm not sure that this is going to happen so fast. And also, I would like in this video to follow up on the trading opportunities I've been talking on my last weekly, uh, forecasts. If you missed, you can always find them, of course, in the YouTube channel. And also to explain the current views after all the changes happen in the market. What do I anticipate from some of the instruments? But before we go to the charts and talk about all the opportunities, I would like to take the opportunity to thank Mugen Markets for supporting me, my channel, and my community. With the link below this video, you can join Mugen Markets, open your trading account with them, fund it, Of course, make sure you trade it. And here is the deal I have with Morgan Markets to my community, and big thanks to Morgan Markets of course for allowing that. You can— all the members of Morgan Markets who join, uh, from my, my community can go and choose 3 of the amazing tools I have here for traders. You go to the blog vladimirribakov.com, strategies and courses, in-house indicators. Choose any 3 you want, any 3 tools you want, and you get full access to that. Of course, the paid version, you get it free. Any 3 of them, or you get 3 months free access to that Home Trader Club. Okay, 3 full months of access. 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So this is the offer, especially for our community. And again, thanks to Mogan Markets for allowing it, of course. for supporting me, my work, and my community. And, um, enjoy, guys. So what did happen? The Federal Reserve holds the rates on the very exact current levels, uh, they have. But yesterday it did have the feeling that the market is disappointed as some of the Fed members are seeing the interest rates higher actually than from the current level of 5.6% by the end of the year. And only in 2024 they do see the beginning of a reverse change, a reverse trend. And yet the numbers are higher than anticipated before. So yesterday that caused some sort of instant Uh, confusion. We saw the dollar gaining some momentum on the very instant impact, but today the anti-dollar moves were on fire pretty much everywhere, especially on the majors like the euro-dollar, the pound-dollar, uh, the dollar-franc, dollar-cad. They all moved dramatically. So here is what I personally see. The challenges are still here. Yes, no doubts. At least the official numbers are pretty good, pretty impressive. The inflation rate shrinks and goes lower, and it looks good. However, it is still double the size of what the Federal Reserve is aiming, which is 2%. Which means in order to achieve that, they or will need to hike the rates eventually or keep it longer for a longer period than expected. So such a pressure builds up over time. It's not instant. We do see that people are still uh, spending money. However, the core retail sales and the core spending among the consumers is shrinking as well. So the challenges are still here. I don't think that all the pressure that the inflation got with us— and even if you think about it, even if we do reach the level That the, the rates are still very high. We're talking about 5%, okay, potentially even higher than that. Even if we go in reverse mode, it will be slower just to make sure we don't fall in this bad place again. Continuous, continuous, uh, high rates would put more and more pressure on the banking system, and of course on people to pay the mortgages and the students' loan, other loan people have. And we all know how many people rely on the credit line. So with all the celebration and the instant steroid-based move on the market, I'm not sure that it's There for too long. Okay, the pressure doesn't go anywhere, and I will show what and how I technically this pressure might actually look like. We are talking about the banking system, and not only because when people would be unable to pay the debt, imagine the pressure then the system will have because what the Fed will do. So the the Fed is dancing basically on. You know, both stages at the moment. From one side, the rates—they have to fight inflation. On the other side, they keep printing money to ease the system. At some point, all this—I was reading in some article somebody called it a hypocrite move, trying to you know. Take down 2 birds with one shot. That's how a very known sentence goes. That's pretty dangerous game and might one day blow up in their face. Maybe not, of course. I, I hope not. Of course, everybody knows, hope not. But it might actually end up very bad. So here is what I want to talk about, the charts, and do some follow-up and explain what are the instruments I I'm following and mainly why. So I mentioned before, I'll go with the NASDAQ, but of course it could be discussed on every of the instruments. The NASDAQ right now with an impressive— and I admit I was one of those who anticipated here a double leg correction or a range correction before we actually see new highs. Clearly my anticipation was wrong after a One leg bounce, the market is on steroids. For me, it's pretty surprising and also disappointed because it feels like investors or the system, I would say, all they care about is just the result, just the dry numbers, just the final numbers present something good that we are doing good, everything is good. That cannot last forever. And here is the technical view why I believe that this rally, which could continue of course, might bring its pressure. So imagine we do indeed have a final rally and complete that towards the new high. This will make for the first time since very, very, very, very long period A huge bearish divergence for complete 3 waves or a completed bullish cycle. Okay, um, and huge bearish divergence between the low, um, highs of the MACD moving average and the RSI of the monthly chart. Such things are scary because that could lead not for a correction, that could lead for a low many years. Of challenging period to the market. So I, of course, I hope I'm wrong. Okay, I just wanted to explain and present why I see that the way I see that. Okay, okay, take a look on German DAX. Same story. It is completing this massive, absolutely massive movement. At some point this will end, and this could be painful. It was painful on twenty. 16, then 2020 with the with the COVID right? We all remember what happened then, how strong it dropped, but it was still just corrective movements or pullbacks. It never changed the trend. Eventually, these things could go and happen, and if it does, that means we might enter a period of a very, very long, challenging financial market situation. So again, I hope I'm wrong. I hope it's not going to happen, of course, but Uh, that's with the side effect, I would call it this way, of what the Fed is doing. From one side, printing money, uh, to ease the banking system. From other side, try to, you know, jingle with the, with the rates and say, yeah, it's all good, inflation is the right way. Again, continuous long-term high rates under such market conditions could turn to be bad. And I'm not trying to predict something crazy or whatever. Again, I hope I am wrong. I just want to explain my logic and why do I see so. So this is for the long run. However, here we are on the short run. Okay, on the weekly forecast I presented these 2 ways. We are in a very strong supply area from the weekly chart. We are very close to RSI being overbought around 80. Okay, and we are talking about the weekly chart. Going to the daily chart, we already see the NASDAQ riding— let me just increase the charts a bit— we already see the NASDAQ riding for over 20 candles on the upper Bollinger Band without significant retrace, with RSI kissing the 80 and overbought conditions. Last time that happened without the RSI, only on the Bollinger, was here, and we all remember how it reflected. And before that, it was here on August 2022 with massive drop down. Okay, so if we, if we want to see more examples, scroll backward and you will see the, the previous one was a beast. The only one that wasn't was here on June, July 2021, which created just a ranging pullback. The rest, as you see, are massive. So these conditions put a lot of pressure, and the way I see that, the, the summer should be a challenging period. And I believe that within this zone, unless we break through and just go all the way to all-time highs, which could happen, but as long as this zone holds, I believe we will see here Some corrective movement towards probably like August, maybe September. So what I want to see here, and we already, if you go to the four-hour chart, we already can start to see that we already have the bearish divergence, higher highs on the chart and lower highs on the indicator. But what I want to see next actually to provide the sell opportunity is like fake highs. Okay, so a high and a pullback because right now the highs are. Stable and the flip of the trend. So I want to see lower lows and trend lines being created, being broken. If that happens, that would be a good sign. We can look for the sell opportunities at least towards the summertime. So this is about the NASDAQ. The next one I want to discuss about will be the euro dollar. So here is the euro dollar. What I was expecting in the euro dollar is ABCD correction towards this Beautiful supportive area before it flips and turns upside. It never managed to complete itself, and it did flip earlier, which brings the question: So where is the euro heading? And one of the possible scenarios to answer that would be that the euro dollar is about to complete this third wave. And if that happens, we should see the euro dollar. Approaching towards the 113, 114, or even 115 area before any possible turnaround, which technically speaking could be pretty exciting. We have a falling resistance line, we have some supply area, a lot of spikes and sellers in this zone. So yeah, if the euro dollar managed to get there, and it's very, very, very likely would try to do so, especially with the recent events where the US is holding the rates, but the rates is going higher in the, in eurozone, and they hint that it might be not over. So it's time to look for possible turnaround. And what happened here is that this is the weekly chart. Going to the daily chart, and we can see that the euro dollar had its impact from the Bollinger Bands, riding on the lower part of the Bollinger Bands. It pushed back and now breaking through the Bollinger Band, very possibly creating some sort of conditions for a rising. Okay. And as we can see, the most recent legs are creating some sort of a channel. So with any pullback, there is a great chance that euro dollar will go and try to continue there. Going down to the 4-hour chart, we can see clean market structure by making a sequence of higher highs, higher lows. There are no ending conditions or whatsoever. At the moment, just temporary resistances that could bring some pullbacks before further continuation. And that's pretty much the trading plan. If you are not yet involved in the euro dollar, buy the dips. Seems at least as for now we are in sensitive market conditions. As you can see, things could change with every day or a week technically. But at the moment, the euro dollar looks like it's flipping and preparing itself. For further rally towards the 113, maybe up to 115 area. So that's pretty much it for this video a day after the Federal Reserve holding the rates. Let me know what do you think about what I just discussed in the comment section below this video. And I would like to invite you to join us in Home Trader Club and to enjoy from your full access to full comprehensive trading courses, both beginners and advanced, real-time trading opportunities, real-time education. Access to the community, and so much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description. I'll see you soon with more— the weekly forecast, actually. And thanks for watching. I wish you and yours all the very best, and thanks for your time. Bye for now.
