Divergence University Performance Review - December 17th 2019

A forex instructor reviews three trades: NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, and EUR/CAD. He breaks down pullbacks in bullish trends, false breaks on the Kiwi, and an ABCD pattern on the Euro Kiwi, then walks through why the EUR/CAD lost money despite divergence signals.
Chapters
Hello everyone and welcome to another Divergence University, uh, weekly review, starting with the Kiwi, which managed to score some pips here. I'll try to zoom in, but Let's leave it like that. All right, so let's see what do we have here, guys. First of all, we have the 1-hour chart. Okay, on the 1-hour chart, what we are looking at here is a pullback. Why are we looking at a pullback? Because on the higher time frame, this is approximately where the trade happened, so you can keep an eye on that. Uh, but if we go to the daily chart, we can clearly see that we're in a very, very strong bullish momentum. That means any pullback is an opportunity for us to go ahead and buy. So this is exactly what we got on the 1-hour chart here. That would be false break number 1 here, coming without divergence though. Because if we compare these 2, that would give us that kind of situation, right? Something like this. So no, no real divergence here happening, but it is a false break. And the price, as we can see, is attempting to go ahead and break the previous high even though that high is in between here Okay, it is some sort of, um, inner high which the price is already showing bullish momentum and strengthened the desire to continue higher. Then we have the next low broken with another false break almost immediately— well, not almost, immediately with the next candle. And then we have a third one. This is also where— actually, let's go to the live chart so I can zoom in a bit. We don't need that anymore. This is also where we can place this kind of alternative trend line, and this is going to give us yet another, uh, false break here. So that's more or less the idea here. As you can see, we entered on the last one. And, um, one more thing I wanted to show is this critical level, guys. Look at it. This is simply, simply fantastic zone, and we almost reached there. We're missing how many pips is that? Like five, six, seven pips. Okay, towards the bottom and towards the top it's three pips or so. And of course reaching the previous low here. Well, again missing a few pips, but we consider it as reached. This is where the tick. For the divergence is happening. And let's go back to the live chart. We are looking for, um, this zone. To be clear, this is tiny candles which are not really giving us what we want to see. Then we see the price pushing higher. We have 2 consecutive bars with, um, stronger momentum behind them, okay? Not like tiny, tiny, tiny candles. We have a nice bullish candle pattern— well, not candle pattern, but we have a nice bullish candle, okay? 2 of them. And this is where the decision is taken to go ahead and, um, look for the buys. Very quickly showing the results here, the push up came almost immediately. And again, that makes Plenty of sense because when we look at the daily chart and the four-hour chart, we're inside a very strong bullish momentum. So still no sense against, no major sense against, which means pullbacks for buys. Next one is Euro Kiwi. Now here we had some issues with the software that takes. The screenshots, as you can see, the entry was right there, but the screenshot was taken somewhere around here, which is few bars. Well, few bars, but ten fifteen bars after that. Not really sure what happened there, but sometimes we have glitches. It's perfectly fine. No problem with that. What we need to focus on here is the setup. Okay. So again, we have the one hour chart, and as we can see. Clearly, this is an ABCD pattern. The previous swing high is holding here. We have a fantastic resistance zone, right? And we're reaching that zone right in the middle of it, and this is where the divergence is happening. We can say it is an entry a bit later. That candle was sufficient, but unfortunately it was missed. So that's why it was triggered right here. The risk-reward ratio versus the bottom, it's still more than enough even if we consider it like that. Okay, as you can see, the 1:2 is coming to that zone. So versus the bottom, we have plenty of room. We could have even taken it to 1:3, let's say, right? It would have been still good, but we have our plan and we work with it. So that's why this trade was taken there on that part. Unfortunately, it was not cashed out the position, and only afterwards, probably the spread was widened or something. Okay, that's why. And only after that, the trade manager managed to close it. Of course, if you experience such situations, guys, and you're around the computer, there is nothing wrong with closing the trade a few pips earlier, especially given that you're trading with more than 1:2— more than 1:1, right? So even if you're taking 1.8, 1.9%, okay, instead of— so if you're risking 1% and then your profit is at 1.8, excuse me, and you're reaching a nice good level, well, of course, go ahead and Close your trade. At least this is what I'll do. All right, Euro Kiwi. What I wanted to show here very quickly is first of all the double wave which we mentioned. Okay, and then on the higher time frames, look where do we stand. That was a trend line. We bounced off of this trend line, but there was no divergence here on the daily chart. Which means we said most likely we're going to see one more attempt to go lower, and this is exactly what we attacked. All right, last one, EUR/CAD. This one lost based on the divergences here. Um, what we got is basically push lower, spikes to the upside, and that zone is simply perfect. Okay, clearance, kind of clearance zone. We can say we have a bit of a range here, and that would be the very bottom of it. So push, you can see the first time the price attempted to go higher, big spike, immediate rejection to the downside. Another attempt, this is the candle, the bearish candle pattern which we attacked. Same story happening, and this is where the entry for the sell was triggered. Unfortunately, after it pushed lower, we could— it, it couldn't reach the targets, and then immediately, um, it shot up, okay, with the big spikes and the volatility with the widened spreads and all that. So Um, this is where we realize the loss. So that's everything for the previous week, guys. Hope you enjoyed it. If you have any further questions, please leave your comments below. I'll be happy to reply. Um, what else? I invite you to join our Telegram group. You have the link right below in the comment section. Check out the Traders Academy Club as usual if you'd like to take your trading to the next level. Me and Vlad are waiting for you there. Um, so that's pretty much it. Have a wonderful week.
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