In this video, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club reviews the EUR/USD pair following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate hikes and hint at possible cuts in 2024. He notes that markets are pricing in three rate cuts for next year, though he remains skeptical given persistent inflation. The immediate market reaction saw a broad sell‑off of the dollar across major currency pairs. Ribakov then conducts a technical analysis on weekly and daily charts, highlighting false breakouts, bullish hidden divergences on MACD and RSI, and Fibonacci expansions. He expects the next upward move to target the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion around the 1.15 level, aligning with previous swing highs and supply zones. He also outlines an alternative wave‑based scenario that could lead to short‑term rejections near the same zone. Volume profile zones on the 4‑hour, daily, and weekly timeframes are identified as key levels for pull‑backs. The trading plan he proposes is to buy dips near these zones, watch for rejection at the 61.8% level, and aim for a rally toward 1.15, while being ready to short‑term sell if signs of reversal appear. The video concludes with a sponsor mention for 8K Broker, a call to like, subscribe, comment on the EUR/USD outlook, and an invitation to join the Home Trader Club for further education.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video I want to talk about the euro dollar. What is happening next, the day after the Federal Reserve hold the rate and hints maybe 2024 the trend will change? Let's talk about that. If you find value in this video, don't forget to hit the like button, and if you are new to this channel, please subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. So what happened with the euro dollar and the market in general a day after the Federal Reserve actually says it looks like there will be no need of more hikes and very possibly 2024 will start cutting the rates, at least according to the investors and the anticipation in the market. The market is anticipating 3. Crazy, I know, but 3 rates, 3 cuts during 2024. For me, it sounds not real, at least at this moment, but time will prove, of course. Let's keep in mind that the inflation, even though the numbers are improving, it's still high. It's still 50% more than the Federal Reserve target, and it's not reducing in a very, let's say, satisfying or fast pace. So the biggest question is what will actually happen Next, we saw the market's reaction. The market was like, "Aha! That's it. Game is over. Time to fly." And everyone, and that's how it at least felt at the moment, was selling the dollars. The dollar was hit against literally every pair: euro, pound, franc, CAD, yen. You name it. The question is, wasn't this reaction too fast? So I believe that on the short term, the dollar will continue to suffer, but we will have to pay attention to specific levels. So in today's video, I want to talk about the euro-dollar specifically, but that's relevant for all of the instruments. So on the recent weekly forecast, we were talking about this very level on the euro dollar that you can see on the screen. And from there, I was expecting to see the price making conditions for buy. So we saw here the classical conditions: false breakout, fake low, bullish divergence on the MACD, bullish divergence on the RSI. And after that, the trend changed by making higher highs, little pullback And here we are around the previous swing highs. So what is coming next with the euro dollar? Let's go to the higher time frames. Let's remove this, that, and pay attention to very interesting things building up on the euro dollar. So here is the weekly chart. Let's start with the weekly. According to the weekly chart, just remove these Fibonacci. According to the weekly chart, If this was the first leg of the potential corrective move upside, and then we got a pullback, then we got a bullish hidden divergence, and we would expect to see further continuation upside. If that is correct, then I would expect to see the second leg reaching at least the 100— sorry, the 61.8 Fibonacci expansion. Which is approximately around the 115. It fits ideally with the swing high, which is the supply area, and that would be a perfect zone. It also fits with the last high of this rally, the last rally right here. So it's all there around the same level surrounding the 115, maybe slightly lower, maybe slightly higher, but it's all surrounding this area. If this analysis is correct. Then buy the pullbacks would be the plan. However, there is also another view to this situation. The first move, the first leg, as we saw here, was broken into 2 waves. Usually it means that the next step is 2 waves by itself, or at least some sort of a range. That's not happening 100% of the time, but in terms of waves, majority of time, that's what Does happen, and if that is correct, then I would expect these stops to start producing some rejection and potential short-term sales. Okay, now let's go to the daily chart and we will talk about all these scenarios. So on that daily chart, swing high, swing high, as with all these spikes, as you can see, create for us a short. Term potential rejection. Okay, and if we plot Fibonacci expansion on this first leg on a daily chart, we would figure out that what the 61.8 Fibonacci expansion is right here on the supply. So there is a great chance that on a short term around this zone with this divergence, we will see the euro dollar facing the first rejection. Of course, if the buyers just go beyond this level, then buy the dips becomes the instant plan. But on the short term, this level could be a very important zone for rejection. That's why for me, on a short term, the plan is still rallies towards this zone, towards this exact zone around the 61.8. If there are signs against, that will be a good place to cash out and potentially short-term sells. If the market just goes beyond 61.8, then buy the pullbacks for further rally towards the 115 would be the instant plan. Before I continue, I would like to take the opportunity to say big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting me and this channel and to enjoy the very special offers we have thanks to 8K Broker. Please check the link below this video in the description. So long story short on the euro dollar, then let's talk about the important levels. So of course we have this volume profile based zone on the 4-hour and the weekly chart. The next volume profile zone is on the daily chart. These are very important levels. Any pullbacks closer to one of them should be an opportunity to look for further rallies. Towards the 61.8 Fibonacci. For me, at least on the short term, the plan is buy the dips. Let me know what do you think about the EUR/USD in the comment section below this video. Will we see 1.15 or the 1.10 will hold and we will see the EUR/USD back to the bearish move? Let me know in the comment section. So thanks for your time watching this video. If you find value, please don't forget like button and subscribe to the channel. Few words in the comment section would be a fantastic help, and feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that. Also, I would like to welcome you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, to enjoy all our trading courses, real-time trading education, and real-time trading opportunities shared with you, access to the community, myself, my team, and so much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now. Bye for now.
