Vladimir Ribakov analyzes EUR/USD after a U.S. CPI report showed inflation easing faster than expected, signaling the Fed won't raise rates further. He identifies supply zones on the weekly and daily charts where sellers have repeatedly rejected buying attempts, and suggests the pair will oscillate near these levels in the near term rather than break out.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video I would like to share with you my view on the EUR/USD and what I would expect to see from this pair. From now forward. Ready? Let's begin. So it will be a quick follow-up to a bullish trading idea I shared with you on one of my recent weekly forecasts. If you missed this video, you can find it directly on the YouTube channel, or you can find it right now in the top corner. I'll put it there, the link for you, so you can see the full analysis why I was anticipating the euro-dollar to make any sort of a corrective structure here before further rallies. So the biggest question is what is happening now with the— with this pair after the rally on steroids, I would say, uh, immediately after the today's CPI report which shows that the US economy is solid. Well, in terms of inflation at least, and that the numbers are shrinking beyond the expectations, which gave the instant, um, sort of, you know, something to, to, to put the grip on, some sort of belief for the investors that the Federal Reserve does not have any more reasons for further hike, and that we are getting slowly And well, maybe steadily but slowly closer to the target that the Federal Reserve has, 2% inflation rate. And we saw the instant reaction. So the biggest question here is what's now? Now the lines you see here, ignore, it's just the lines we have from a Home Trader Club buy trading opportunity that was shared with the members. But I want— let them not let me erase for a moment. And I want to explain what is next for this pair. So according to the weekly chart, after making the lower lows, the pair is making another rally. Theoretically speaking, it has the room all the way towards this high, but it also has some very important levels from my point of view, and that's this recent connection of the 2 recent lows of the previous uptrend. But also you see all these spikes here, spike, spike, spikes here. All that is zone of sellers. That's where sellers on a weekly chart— buyers were trying to push, but sellers instantly rejected and took the control. So we are right next to the first key zone, also right on the major volume profile based area. Absolutely strong zone, and it's not too far from the next zone here. If we go to the daily chart, uh, with today's rally, we are getting super close. Take a look on the daily supply, okay? We saw the weekly, but take a look on the daily zones of sellers, okay? Sellers, all these zones rejected, right? Buyers were pushing, sellers rejected, then sellers again, and then sellers again. Every time buyers reject, sellers take control. Buyers try, sellers take control. We are very close to this zone, and we have this volume profile area as well. So I believe that the euro-dollar should play here within this zone for some time before the next decisive move will be built for this pair. And Um, the way I think we will see the euro dollar moving is, you know what, let me go for a daily chart for a moment here and I plot Fibonacci retrace and you will see. I believe we will be seeing the euro dollar moving between these 2 key levels, the supply from the daily chart and the Fibonacci and the 50% Fibonacci from the daily cycle. Okay, now take a look on the other side. We are already on overbought conditions. So in my point of view, we should see here some ugly and annoying moves within this period. Okay, before any decisive move next will be built up. So with that in mind, is that moment good for swing trading, uh, new opportunities? I'm doubtful. It was very good in this area, as I explained on the weekly forecast, uh, with all the reasons. Now tricky. I would wait to see here how these moves build up next, uh, and from there looking for the next opportunity. Okay, so with that in mind, keep it— keep the daily and the weekly. We saw the supply area and the Fibonacci. If the euro dollar slowly glitches towards this zone, I would be even looking on short-term sells later on. And it's very important, very important to mention and to say yes, the inflation rate or the annual growth improves more or beyond the expectations. However, don't forget the economy is still. The prices are still rising way more than the normal original pace, and the rates are still high. So today we got the steroids reaction on the market. It's normal. A day or two after, the market will, you know, find, find a new balance, and the new opportunities will arise. And within these levels, I believe the euro-dollar moves would now be focused on the short term. And not on long-term or swing trading. For short-term trading opportunities, I believe these levels I marked should provide good opportunities to trade from or in between. Yeah, so that's, that's it pretty much for me. Let me know, what do you think about this one? What do you— what would you anticipate From the euro dollar, will we see 110 next? Will we see 112 next? Maybe 115 even, or we will see the price moving in between the 109 towards 107 back and forth, back and forth. Let me know what what do you think in the comment section below this video. Thanks for your time watching this video. I hope you find value in it. If you do, don't forget like button and please subscribe if you are new to the channel. And also welcome to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Where you will get your access to full trading courses, real-time education, real-time trading opportunities, access to the community, and so much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.
