Vladimir Ribakov explains his short strategy for EUR/USD following strong bearish momentum from U.S. CPI data. He identifies an ABCD pattern on the weekly chart, multiple hidden divergences on MACD and RSI, and targets the 100% Fibonacci extension as the next downside level if no bullish divergence forms.
Chapters
Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. In this video, I want to share with you my follow-up on the EUR/USD sell plan we discussed recently in one of our weekly forecasts and to share with you my analysis and further expectations from this pair. Ready? Let's begin. Before we start, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting my community in this channel. And to enjoy our special offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to all of our projects, the Home Trader Club, and the new live trading room for day traders starting next week, follow with the link below this video in the description. In one of our recent weekly forecasts I shared with you the analysis and the plan to sell the euro-dollar. The plan was that we expect this low to complete, a bullish divergence to complete, pullback, and then bearish continuation. As you can see, the euro-dollar gains very good momentum, especially on the last couple of days, a lot of thanks to the CPI data that came up today and published in the US. So I want to follow up. What do I expect next on the euro dollar? Please ignore these lines. These are the lines that on one of the trades we had in Home Trader Club yesterday, where we were looking the sale with the break of this low pullbacks and continuation. So right now the euro dollar is approaching to the target zone that we discussed back then in the weekly forecast. Which was the low here. So we are very close to the zone in between the 4-hour chart low to the significant daily low, which I believe is going to be of course tested and well rejected somehow. The biggest question is what's next? Let me take you to the next chart. So I will go on this chart because it doesn't have any lines. So the expectations as we discussed back on the forecast. Was the same. We expect the euro dollar to complete the ABCD on the weekly chart, or at least some sort of range before the market will decide what's coming next. What happens with the euro dollar since then is we gain the momentum. The expectations are accordingly. If we plot Fibonacci extension on the current developing legs, we can— we will see that the euro dollar has 2 significant levels. First one is the 61.8, which still could be relevant because if the euro dollar does something like that and completes the bullish divergence, the party of the sell might be over here. I do not know, and please don't believe anyone who will promise you specific scenarios because no one can predict how the market will react. If that happens, That might be the end of the bearish move. But if that doesn't happen and the divergence doesn't complete, which currently doesn't have any reason to complete, especially with the fundamental support we received today with the CPI data, the next important target zone could be all the way down to the 100% Fibonacci extension of this wavy, and that would be. Very close to the weekly significant low. Okay, so technically speaking, this one has the room, and as long as we do not have that completed, for me, the plan on the euro dollar remains absolutely same. So for those of you who are already involved in the way. We discussed sell the rallies. The euro dollar had here a phenomenal opportunity. Sorry, just over clicked here. Take a look how it was creating here a phenomenal bearish hidden divergence. Three waves to the downside, a rally, and lower highs on the chart versus higher highs on the MACD histogram. Absolutely amazing. Bearish hidden divergence. After that, it developed into two waves ABCD with bearish divergence on the MACD moving average histogram and RSI as well. False breakout, fake high on the top, and then break below the rising supportive line, which delivers amazing move down. So my point here is sell the rally. Still remains, of course, the plan— ongoing plan, not a new plan. As I said, it's a follow-up. And as long as there are no completed signs against, there is a great chance the euro-dollar will do something like that until the 4-hour, and then the daily chart will line up and start to develop bullish divergences, which will end this, um, strong bearish momentum. So the 2 levels we will have to pay attention to is this low and the 61.8 Fibonacci extension, as explained, of the daily, uh, legs. That if that happens like that with a bullish divergence, that would be a very strong warning sign. If not and the euro continues the momentum, then our target should be accordingly around the 100% Fibonacci extension Which we saw on the daily chart. So that's my view on the euro dollar. I hope you enjoyed this ride on the euro dollar that we were waiting for to happen. Finally, it found a reason to happen. Beautiful trigger, beautiful momentum, great move down. Let me know how do you see the euro dollar in the comment section. Below this video. And meanwhile, thanks for your time watching this video. As always, I hope you find value in this one. Please hit the like button if you did, and if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe so you can enjoy all the content and the trading ideas and the analysis we share here. And I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you can get your access to our complete courses, real-time education, and trading opportunities, access to the community, so much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description, or with the special offers we have, we have with Eightcap Broker, also with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for your time once again. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.
