In this market commentary, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club reviews the recent Federal Reserve rate hike (to a 3.75‑4.0% target range) and its macro implications, then provides detailed technical analysis and trade ideas for several major instruments. He argues that the Fed’s hawkish stance keeps the US dollar strong and yields high, while inflation pressure could still sustain this bias. For EUR/USD he sees a bearish continuation toward the 1.20‑1.11 zone and possibly the 1.08‑1.09 volume‑profile support, recommending selling rallies. For USD/JPY he identifies bearish divergences on monthly, weekly and daily charts, a key supply zone around 158‑161 (the 250‑day MA intersection), and projects a move below 150, again favoring short‑term sells after any bounce. He highlights NZD/USD as a rare bullish opportunity, with a rising support line, strong Bollinger‑Band zone and bullish divergence suggesting buying dips near the identified demand area. Regarding gold, he maintains a long‑term bearish outlook but expects a short‑term rally to 4,800‑5,000 (or a fake run to ~4,500) before a possible drop toward 3,500, advising to sell the rallies. Throughout he references technical tools (Bollinger Bands, MACD/RSI divergences, volume profile, moving averages) and invites viewers to join the Home Trader Club for further education.
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Is the euro dollar on its way to 111, 110, maybe even below that to 108? Could the dollar yen visit again below 150? Is the gold going to below the level of 4,000, maybe even 3,500? Or is that just a trap before we rally the 5,000? So there are so many interesting things happening. Let's take a look on the charts. So welcome back, traders. I'm Vladimir from Home Trader Club, and the Federal Reserve in the last week— and not just the Federal Reserve, the other central banks as well— they bring back the hiking, uh, to our lives. The rates are going up. Trump is absolutely unhappy saying that the Rates in the U.S. should be one percent, but reality is the inflation is here. The war is still not going anywhere. The pressure on the prices is severe. So what happened the last week? The Federal Reserve just hiked the rates to the between the three seventy five to four percent. All the Fed members voted for that. The instant market reaction was strong dollar, weaker gold. Drop on the stocks and the Treasury yields going up. And the biggest question is what's coming next. So if the inflation stays high, the dollar and yields may probably stay supported, and that's the common sense expectations from the market. The stocks and gold face pressure and could drop further down. However, if the inflation cools, further hikes may be. Postpone, delay, or cancel, and the dollar strength could absolutely fade. So this is the current and the most relevant Federal Reserve outlook. That's the 2026 GDP 2.3%, unemployment rate of 4.1%, PCE inflation on 3.7%, and year-end rate 4.1%. The bottom line, hawkish. One final message, one more hike is possible and moreover is likely. What does all that mean on the charts? Let's take a look. So the way that the euro dollar behaves right now, we have a very high probability to see the euro dollar pushing one more final drop down, probably to retest the weekly broken resistance that acts as support around the 1.20, 1.11, and maybe beyond that to the bottom of this rising channel closer to the level of 1.08, where we also got this major volume profile. It's about 1.08, 1.09. So the current pressure is bearish. I believe that the euro dollar should provide further sell-off. But take a look what happens here at the moment. We are overriding on the lower Bollinger Band. Usually it is a hint that some slowdown will come, even if it's temporary, but a slowdown should take place. So I believe as the euro dollar forming here the bottom, we should see here, uh, bullish divergence forming, which means lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the MACD price to push up. Look at this range. This volume profile zone above 115.20 should be retested, maybe even beyond that to 116. And from there, the way I see that the euro dollar is still bearish. So for me, this one is sell the rallies. And what's up with the dollar yen? So the dollar yen is very interesting. The way it behaves is the Very high time frame monthly, weekly are showing clear bearish divergences. Let me show you. So this is the monthly chart. Higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the MACD as well as the RSI. Classical bearish divergence. A false breakout here, fake high was completed. So I believe that it's question of time until we see the dollar yen going down probably to below 150 at some point. Weekly chart follows the same path. Higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the MACD. That's a bearish divergence condition. And on a daily daily chart, we already formed 2 bearish waves. Let's just close these lines. 2 bearish waves. So right now, this volume zone, this is a golden area. We are talking about anything between 158 to 160, 161 here. Why is that critical? First of all, that's the meeting point, as you can see here, of the 250 moving average. Second of all, it's a massive volume profile from all the higher time frames. And of course This is a key supply level. Since this low was broken, these highs act as a major supply. So I believe that the dollar yen should find a comfortable peak around this area. On the shorter term, yeah, it could push, but from there we should be looking for the sell. So the way I see that on the lower time frame, that's where the opportunities are. Similar to what we saw on the euro dollar, the dollar yen is overriding the, um, Bollinger Band. So there are 2 scenarios. If we start the week with the run to the upside, look at this level we just discussed, and from there going for the sell. If we continue with these bounce, look for the rising supportive line and this strong supportive demand area. From there, most likely final push towards this zone and then go for the sell. once we have the bearish divergence. Another super interesting opportunity could be found on unusual pair for us, New Zealand dollar. What do we have here? Rising supportive line, and these lows act as the demand area. And moreover, this is a very strong Bollinger Band zone. Since the break— this is our Bollinger Band indicator. You can find all the information, of course, in the description below this video. But since the break of the Bollinger Band, This is the duplication area. This is surrounding this levels we just discussed, and this is a classical dynamic supportive zone. RSI is flirting with oversold area there as well. And if we go to the 4-hour chart, we are overriding the Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles here. The way it looks right now, we are building a bullish divergence, which means lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the indicator. Usually it is a sign that a pullback is about to take place. And I think around this zone we just saw before here from the daily and the weekly levels, that could provide very interesting bounces to the upside, at least on the short term. So looking to buy these dips is my trading plan. And of course, the gold. So what happens next with the gold? I see that in a very clear way. I believe that the long-term bearish move is not over. I think more to come. However, on a short term, this should complete either as ABCD, which means the levels of 4800 up to potentially 5000 is still reachable. If that happens and we complete this bearish divergence, would be looking for a classical sell from there. However, because the pressure is severe, it could become like a range here. So simply. I would say tired fake run towards this zone, probably closer to 4,500. And from there, if the lower highs maintain themselves and we break this range, then the gold is very likely on its way to 3,500, which will simply correspond to this phenomenal weekly range. So this is the trading plan I have for the gold. This or other way around, for the long run it is sell the rallies for me. What do you think about the markets and what is the most interesting trading opportunity you have? Let us know in the comment section and I would like to thank you for watching. Of course, if you are new to our channel, consider to subscribe and to enjoy all the trading opportunities and the education we have here in this channel for you. I also want to invite you to our family, the Home Trader Club. The link to join us is below this video in Thanks for watching, best to you and yours, and I'll see you soon with more. Good trading, bye for now. Bye.
