Vladimir RibakovOwner, Chief Trader at Home Trader Club (Former Traders Academy Club), Owner, Chief Trader at Home Trader Club (Former Traders Academy Club) · Owner, Chief Trader at Home Trader Club (Former Traders Academy Club)

EURUSD: Sell the Rallies? Weekly Forex Analysis #eurusd #forextrading #hometraderclub

12 Jul 2026 · 2 min

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1:56

In this solo market commentary, Vladimir Ribakov reviews the EUR/USD pair after confirming key support and resistance levels from the previous week. He argues that the pair has not yet formed a new bottom and is likely to break the prior low, potentially reaching the lower end of a rising trend line before a bullish MACD divergence appears (lower price lows versus higher MACD lows). Ribakov highlights three primary technical reference zones: the weekly resistance area, the most recent weekly low, and a volume‑profile concentration. He also points to a rising trend line that could act as a pull‑back target. Two possible 4‑hour chart scenarios are outlined: (1) a corrective zig‑zag (2 up, 2 down) followed by a final upward thrust before bears dominate, and (2) a break below the corrective structure leading to a renewed series of lower highs and lower lows, driving the pair toward the previously identified targets. Throughout, his bias remains bearish, recommending “sell the rallies” as the preferred trade approach.

Chapters

Start with the euro dollar. So last week we marked a couple of important levels that as long as they hold, we are looking for further sell opportunities on the euro dollar. These levels hold. So what's coming next? So here is how the price develops and here is what I expect to happen next. So first of all, just to remove the the blur from this, I believe the euro dollar is yet to form another bottom. Very likely to break the previous low and to reach somewhere like the bottom of this trend line until it will actually form bullish divergence. Lower lows on the price versus higher lows on the MACD. In terms of levels, I would be paying attention to. This weekly resistance zone as a possible area, the last weekly low, and of course the volume profile zone. We also have a rising trend line where the euro dollar could actually try to drop down to. So for me, it is sell the rallies. And usually around the current price, uh, um, structure that the market develops on the 4-hour chart, we have 2 scenarios. Scenario 1, That this becomes a zigzag, 2 waves up, 2 waves down, something like that, and then another final run to the upside before the big bears are taking control. Scenario number 2, it actually managed to break below this corrective structure and starts to recreate the lower highs, lower lows, and pushes down all the way to the targets we just mentioned before. So for me, One of these scenarios should provide great sell opportunities. For me, the EUR/USD is yet bearish.