In this solo market commentary, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club analyses the EUR/USD pair ahead of the European elections and the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision. He explains that the pair opened the week with a strong gap driven by election‑related expectations and possible dovish Fed policy. Using daily and 4‑hour charts, he identifies a key price zone where the pair is likely to encounter strong resistance. He highlights a Bollinger Band duplication zone, a large volume‑profile area, and a bearish hidden divergence on the daily MACD histogram (higher highs while price makes lower highs). On the 4‑hour chart he notes bullish higher‑high/higher‑low structure but warns that the momentum may soon reverse as price approaches the identified resistance zone. He outlines potential short‑term scenarios: continued bullish momentum versus a shift to a sell‑side setup marked by lower highs/lower lows, bearish MACD and RSI divergences, and overbought conditions. He concludes by urging traders to watch the upcoming election outcomes and the Fed decision for the final direction, and invites viewers to join the Home Trader Club for further education and real‑time trading opportunities.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. In this video, I want to share with you the analysis, the way I see that on the euro dollar. So first of all, keep in mind this is the elections day, and on Thursday there will be the rates decision in the US. As we can see, the euro-dollar started this week with a very strong gap due to all the expectations both from the elections and the Federal Reserve, which some leaked rumors show that the Fed could still keep its dovish due to the elections period view. However, technically speaking, the euro-dollar rally is coming to a Key zone, and here is what we have on the charts. So starting from the daily chart, we bounced directly from the supportive line and this strong demand zone, and of course the huge volume profile area. But besides that, we also got a Bollinger Band duplication zone. Usually in that cases, once there are signs against, we could expect the pair to rally to. To the opposite Bollinger Band, sometimes slightly more, like up to 50% more. And that fits perfectly with the coming levels we have, the levels of sellers. What do I mean by that? Since the moment this low was broken, the previous high is the high of interest for the sellers. This is very close to the current levels. The next high on the line is here. The low that was broken here was a support, acts now as a resistance. Again, it's in the same zone, which makes me think the euro dollar right now entering a huge key zone where we actually could see the sellers taking control from. So I believe what we should see on the lower time frame— oh, by the way, I'll go back to the Daily chart to show a developing bearish hidden divergence. While the market is making the lower highs, the MACD histogram is making higher highs, which is a classical condition for for a bearish hidden divergence. On the four-hour chart, what we see that we gain the bullish momentum by making the higher highs, higher lows. So Very possible that the euro dollar will maintain its momentum, if we can call it this way, toward this key zone which we just saw from the daily chart, and we should be able to see the euro dollar slowly, slowly, slowly rounding the tops here. MACD, RSI completing conditions of bearish divergence. And preparing the ground for possible sell. So on the short term, yes, the euro actually could maintain its momentum, but again, we should be paying attention to the current levels. We have these dynamic or expanding conditions at the moment. If we connect the highs, we will see that we are right now on the top of that. Including the daily levels, the divergences that should develop, and the possibility it will get out of this dynamic resistance, it becomes a classical zone of, I would say, overbought conditions or some extreme conditions and put the pressure on the sell. So on the lower time frame, I think we should be getting ready for possible technical conditions for the sells, meaning if the euro starts to create this formation of the lower highs, lower lows, get ready for the next portion of the sellers. Meanwhile, the momentum remains bullish, but again, pay attention to these strong levels we are approaching right now, we are next to right now, and of course elections and the rate decision in The U.S. this Thursday should be the ones that will dictate how the euro will react around the key levels. Let me know what do you think about this one. Thanks for watching. I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get access to our full trading courses, real-time trading education, and real-time trading opportunities. The link is below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.
