Vladimir Ribakov analyzes EUR/USD across multiple timeframes ahead of the non-farm payroll release. He identifies a supply zone on the 4-hour chart and two scenarios: sell if the range holds, or buy pullbacks if weak NFP data triggers a bullish breakout and rate cuts.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club, and in this video I want to share with you my analysis and further trading plan on the EUR/USD. So this is a follow-up to the recent analysis we've had couple of weeks ago in the weekly Forecast where we were hunting for two key levels on the euro dollar to go. Sorry, wrong drawing. To once again to go long from these areas. The first zone, as we can see, this zone never was reached. The first zone indeed managed to hold the price. And make a fantastic bounce. So as I explained, I, I really recommend if you missed the weekly forecast from 2 weeks ago, please watch it so you understand the full analysis behind it and why specifically I was looking for these longs from these 2 levels on the shorter. But the question is, what is coming? You can find the video, of course, on the— in this channel. But the question is, what's coming next? So here are 2 things we need to remember. First of all, this is a non-farm payroll week, and the way that the price bounces from the levels that the price is respecting clearly is showing that the market is waiting for the non-farm payrolls and the official numbers. The hope, I would say, among the traders, among investors, is that the job market will show signs of weakness, something that will allow the Fed, let's say, more openly talk about cutting the rates. Because strong job market will always put more and more pressure on the Fed, uh, and will limit its actions in regard of Cutting the rates. The Fed already said that the March cut is unlikely. So the way that the market is anticipating right now is for the further quarters during this during 2024 that the Fed will have no no choice and to cut. So the hope among traders that we will see actually weakness in the job market and that's. Fundamentally speaking. Now technically, I want to pinpoint here 2 scenarios we need to follow and the way I plan to follow and to plan to trade. So for the long term, okay, let's go. Let's start with the monthly, not because I plan to trade it, just because I want you to understand the logic. Where do we stand? So on the monthly chart, we are still in a pretty clean structure of the lower highs, lower lows without any completed signs. So technically speaking, this should be nothing more than a pullback. Yes, a pullback could happen sometimes in 2 ways. The pullback can also be within some sort of a range for a long time. But there, at the moment at least, there is no trend change that happened and confirmed. Therefore, we could assume that there is a good chance for a sell coming afterwards. However, if we go to the weekly chart, there is— this is where the bit of contradiction takes place. On the weekly chart, after the first monthly leg, we can see that at the end of the rally We were facing bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD. Usually, such condition bring corrective structure, and corrective structure could be either ABCD, most common one, but also sometimes a range before the market will decide what is coming next. So the biggest question is for the long term: Do we have any sign that something is ready? The answer here is. No. So for me, this is what is still very, very important. So as you can see, let me just close this level so you can see it a bit clearer. If it's a range from the weekly chart, then we are still within the range. We are moving within very acceptable angles, and each of that move up and down, each of the swings have clear sequence of highs and lows. If it's Upside or downside. So from that scenario, really everything is possible. However, on a short term, there are levels that could be problematic, and that's what I want to show. And if we go to the 4-hour chart, that's where you will see that. So the way that the 4-hour chart was developing, we were creating the sequence of lower highs, lower lows. At the moment, the market is holding this supply zone, and not just the supply zone, but also this major volume profile balance zone. Okay, a lot of transactions are going on here. That's one of the ways that the market is basically telling us that it is waiting To non-farm payrolls, to see and to know, to value the current odds of the Fed being able cutting the rates. So as long as this zone holds, and we have sequence here, broken support becomes a resistance, right? This is first idea. Then sellers here, sellers here. Massive supply zone, and of course the volume zone. So as long as this key major zone holds, then I would not be surprised if the euro dollar will just complete some sort of a ranging here, will then break it down, right? Start to make lower lows again, and then after making lower lows. The euro will actually go try to climb and make the final push down to complete. If we go to the daily chart, you will remember one of the scenarios we saw was the ABCD, right? This one to go and complete the ABCD with the daily and the weekly chart. Well, this is the first classical scenario, and for that we have let me just zoom out quickly. We have this zone which we just discussed about, and we have slightly higher zone, which is the area of the swing highs we can see here from the daily chart. These 2 areas are areas that could actually deliver sell opportunities as long as they hold. Okay, and alternatively, if the report, uh, the non-farm payroll report really published negatively And the euro-dollar managed finally to complete its climb, and we have the massive range. And on the way out, what we will want to see the euro-dollar is doing is to gaining bullish structure, which means sequence of higher highs, higher lows, to represent the bullish control. Because if you think about it logically, What does the market do when the buyers are in control? It creates a sequence of higher highs, higher lows, right? This is what the buyers do in, in a bullish trend. And as soon as it gets out of this range, buy the pullback to complete the weekly bullish ABCD. Let's go to the weekly so we can see that, right? 1 and 2, something like that, right? Would be basically much more realistic. And this is exactly how I plan to trade the euro dollar, looking for my sells from the levels I mentioned, uh, with the setups I mentioned. And if the report comes very negative on the job market, I believe the market can, um, digest this news Uh, in terms of that's it, the Federal Reserve will have no choice and he will go and cut the rates and start the rally. And if it's about to make the rally, then the break above the range should be the read for us, and buy the pullbacks would be the next step to do. Uh, is there anything to do before and from payrolls? Usually no, because usually the play before The important news that should drive the next swing wave is basically in between the short-term levels, something that we were following on the last weekly forecast to trade in between these levels. And I believe, of course, there could be surprises on the market, but I believe that as long as the market is anticipating the main event to come this Friday, nonfarm payrolls, the play should be In between the levels and not out of the levels. So that's my view on the euro dollar, and let me know what do you think about this one. How do how would you expect the euro to behave? Is it aiming the 113, 115 next, or are we going to below 105? Again, let me know in the comment section below this video. And meanwhile, thanks for watching this video. As always, I hope you find value in it. If you do, please don't forget to hit this like button. And if you are new to our community, please consider to subscribe to our channel with the subscribe button below this video. And I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our comprehensive trading courses, real-time trading opportunities and education, access to our comprehensive media zone, webinars, Community, and so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for your time. Best to you and yours. See you soon with more. Bye.
