In this weekly forex forecast, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club interprets the Federal Reserve’s latest hawkish speech—highlighting a 3.7% realistic PCE inflation, unchanged 2% target, and no firm September hike promise—as a catalyst that strengthened the US dollar. He then applies technical analysis to four major instruments. For EUR/USD, he points to a strong volume‑profile area near 1.15‑1.16, suggesting a short‑term pullback to 1.15 with potential oversold bounce. For GBP/USD, he notes a 50/200 moving‑average crossover, support around 1.34‑1.35, and a long‑term bullish view toward 1.40, while short‑term pullbacks could test lower lows. Gold’s recent rally is seen as exhausted; key resistance at 4,350 and support zones at 4,300, 4,200, and 4,150 frame a bearish lower‑high, lower‑low pattern, offering short‑term buying chances. USD/CAD is influenced by renewed US‑Canada tariff talks; a rising support line near 1.40 and a supply zone up to 1.407, reinforced by a volume‑profile cluster at 1.40‑1.41, suggest a temporary upside before a longer‑term downside. Throughout, Ribakov references tools such as volume profile, Bollinger Bands, and the KTLI indicator to justify trade ideas. The video concludes with standard calls to like, subscribe, and join the Home Trader Club for education and trade copying services.
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Did the Federal Reserve just destroy the anti-dollar move hopes and the rally from the gold towards 5,000 and the euro to 1.20? Did the Fed actually flip the market? Is the euro heading back to 1.11? Let's take a look on the charts. So welcome back to our weekly forex forecast. I am Vladimir Ribakov from Home Trader Club, and in today's video we have very interesting scenarios. But first of all, what just happened after the last speech of the Federal Reserve? So here is the quick summary from, I would say, a very hawkish but not crazy enough to say that in September we would have a hike. For sure, but the Fed still warns that the realistic PCE inflation is 3.7%. The financial conditions are not restrictive. The economy and the labor market remain strong despite some controversial numbers of the nonfarm payroll report, the recent one. The 2% target remains firm, unchanged, and the Fed Hint that they might have some work to do. Hawkish view without any specific promise that in September we would see a hike. The market is split in the beliefs what's happening, but it definitely shake the market and make the dollar stronger. And what all that means on the chart? So the last week we were talking about the euro dollar, and I marked this. Line where we were talking about the overriding conditions on the Bollinger Band and that we do expect to see dropdowns as long as these key levels hold. And the question is, is that actually going to change the direction and we will see a crash from here? So this is too early to know and to judge. I believe the real answers would be only In September after that so expected rate decision, and with that being said, on the shorter term, I believe the euro dollar is going lower. We have here a very strong, as you can see, volume profile based area. This is around 115, slightly above. So I believe any pullbacks here should open the doors for the euro to retest this area. But also pay attention to these lows. So let's go back to the daily chart so you can see what happened here. This high right here was broken, therefore this low is a low of interest. This high was broken, so this low is the low of interest. So there is a great probability, and since this low is now being retested around the 1.16, any pullbacks here could push the euro further down to 1.15, maybe below. I do not think we have enough besides some hawkish speech, um, to justify, to judge, um, and say that the trend changed. I believe the euro is heading there to the level I just explained. But as we get there— oops— as we get there, I believe with these possible oversold conditions, the euro could actually bounce back to the upside from there and play in between these levels until the next decision in September. And a quick observation on the pound-dollar as well. So what's next with this pair? So it cleaned the peak and make the bounce down. Is the rally over? So while the long term remains as for now For me personally, bullish. I believe for the long run, the pound dollar is aiming the 140. The question is what will happen on the short run, and what happened here? I want to remind you that this range or this trend was broken, so there is a great probability we are going to retest this area. With that being said, we have a rising supportive line here and huge volume profile area below 135, closer to 134, and also. A cross of the 2 moving average of 50 and 200, as you can see, right? Let me just find my circle right here. Okay, so I believe on the shorter term, similar to what we saw on the euro dollar, uh, I believe the pound has all the reasons after some pullbacks to complete this move, clean the next lows on the go, and once it is there watch out for some oversold conditions and possible bounces to the upside. I— this is how I see the pound-dollar, and that's how I plan to trade this one. And the gold also, after a massive rally that we experienced, it came very close to the high on the daily chart and just bounces down. But the bottom line here, the way I see that gold does not have any Um, trend-changing signs as for now besides these beautiful candles, which makes me think this high is cleaned. This low and this low are the level of interest. We have also rising supportive line and the broken resistance level. So around the 4350, uh, down to 4300, then possibly 4200. Down to 4150. These are the key levels on the gold, and I think similar to what we saw on the pound and the euro would be this bearish structure lower highs, lower lows at the moment. Any pullbacks here could actually push that further down, but I don't think we are back to the bearish trend. I think that from these levels, gold should actually provide some very interesting. Buy opportunity, at least on the short term. And let's take a look on the dollar CAD, a pair I don't talk about too frequently, but also very interesting scenario. So what happened there in the last weekend? The negotiations between the US and Canada simply blew up, which means the tariffs are on, are back on the table starting from September. Now we have a beautiful bounce here, a rising supportive line. This low around the 137.50 is cleaned. So what happens here with the dollar cut? I think it favors the rallies on the shorter term. Bounces should provide further move up. But I do believe this is temporary. We have the broken resistance that acts as support around the 140 and the supply level around 140.70 up to 140.30. Very strong levels. So I believe on a shorter term, dollar CAD has all the reasons to go to these levels, where from once that completes, I believe we should experience the move to the downside. So if we go to the lower time frame, you can see that the pair starts to build up some waves here, which makes me think some pullbacks and further run should be delivered. As you can see on the volume profile area above 140 up to 141, we have massive Levels. As you can see, this is our KTLI indicator. The links, of course, in the description. This is a major zone. So as long as the low holds, pullbacks from my point of view should provide further move to the upside. That would be it for this video. As always, I hope you find value in it and make sure you smash this like button if you do and subscribe to our channel for more trading tips. Videos, opportunities, and education. Thank you very much for watching. I want to invite you to our family, the Home Trader Club. Get your access to our courses, real-time education and trades shared with you, and our Trade Copier project. All the information with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. I wish you all the very best. Good trading, and I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
