Forex Forecast & FULL Trading Plan 24th - 28th April 2023 - By Home Trader Club

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly Forex forecast. Today we are preparing for the trading week starting on 24th to 28th April 2023. In this video, I will share with you 3 trading ideas The way I see them, that would be on the euro-dollar, pound-yen, and gold. Before I start, I would like to thank to all those of you who shared the desired instruments for me to analyze. And if you would like to ask any specific instrument, feel free to do so in the comment section below this video. And on the next weekly video, I will share with you my views on your instruments. Of course, assuming I have a view there. If I don't have anything, I would not be able to share anything. So the first instrument would be the euro dollar. And let's go to the Home Trader Club members area and let's take a look on the instruments. So what I love to do to understand where at what phase the instruments are based on pure price, uh, percentage change. I love to see their behavior during the month, week, and last 24 hours. So quick observation of the euro-dollar teaches us that the monthly change is close to 3%, while the weekly change is negative, and the last 24 hours is pretty much doing nothing, around the 0%, a bit to the upside. This gives, uh, some understanding that the euro dollar right now is still trading, maybe not as massive as it was on the upside, and buy the pullbacks here could be actually still good idea until reversal signs take place. So with that in mind, I want to go to the charts and let's talk about the longer term and then drop down to the shorter term. These lines, we don't need them. So the euro dollar completed three massive waves. We cannot ignore that. Are they completed, or is just is that just a correction before something massive comes to the downside? Time will tell, but we cannot ignore these three massive waves. Usually every trending structures, especially when they're— when they are built by clean waves, bring, bring with them a corrective movement. So in the corrective movement, it usually comes as ABCD, or in more rare cases, some sort of consolidation or a range. So with that in mind, the longer term does look like buy the dips, okay? But the shorter term starts to bring some pressure, and this pressure can be looked like by these two waves. Okay, here are the interesting things we have here. So this was the first supportive zone that became a resistance, did hold. Afterwards, it was broken again, pullback, and now we are pushing forward. The next key zone we can see in line. Is basically here. The last support broken becomes a resistance, which is right around this zone. And the next one is slightly higher, all this area. As you can see, broken support become a resistance. So this is the instant zone we have, okay? And that could cause some, uh, issues, I would say. But of course the price should still reach it, right? But that could cause the corrective movement to begin there. Besides the classical support and resistance, we can also see that in this zone there is a massive volume profile-based area. And while the market is making higher highs, indicator— in that case, the histogram of the MACD Slightly making lower highs, hinting of a slowdown or a negative divergence building up. So with this in mind, we understand that slowdown is coming. And going down to the daily chart, if we analyze these legs— that's from the weekly what we saw before, right? If we analyze these legs, let's go and take different color. We can clearly see that the first weekly leg was built in 3 waves. And same is happening right now with the second wave, and this one getting actually slower and slower and slower. And we can start to see how the euro dollar slowly start to round. The last time it was rounding actually got us a beautiful correction. So the way I see that the euro dollar is running close to the end of its current journey. And there are 2 scenarios to trade such an opportunity. The first one, to look to buy the pullbacks towards the classical zone. Around this zone, if we manage to reach it, of course, we should be looking for the candle patterns to start and create the reversal sign, exactly like it did here at the end of the rally. We saw massive bearish candles taking control and causing the push, push down. Sorry, the same could happen here, and very likely, very possibly would happen. If that happens, our next movement is to the downside. Okay, the other scenario is of course to let the price rally, assuming it does, without trying to join it, and then look for the reversal signs exactly as mentioned before. It starts with candles Uh, the, the way they form the lower highs, lower lows, and then bring the reversal. So that's, uh, both scenarios for short term and the long term. And here is how I would look to trade that on the shorter term. So right now the euro dollar is holding and bouncing from this supportive area. Yeah, broken resistance becomes support and holding it. Okay, even this zone flirting around it for a while. Holding. So what could happen here is pretty classical: 1, 2, 3, pullback and continuation. The target is from what we saw on the weekly chart. Another scenario would be a bit more maybe comprehensive, however still correct, is the push. If this becomes a little trap and completes one more push, then a push lower to the next supportive zone. And broken resistance becomes a support, and the lows on the way create for us a beautiful supportive area. This to complete corrective structure, okay, some drop here and higher lows, and from there the rally towards the key zone. These are the levels I will be playing with on the short-term opportunity. Of course Assuming they, they hold. And for the longer run, I do expect it to reach this key zone. You can also see here with the key trading levels indicator of mine, you can see here the weekly and the monthly key zones, and they create a beautiful resistance area as well. So this is how I see the euro dollar and my plan for both the shorter And the longer term view. And the next pair I was asked to analyze for this week, and I decided to do so because I do have an interesting opportunity from my point of view here. That would be the pound yen. So let's also start from the higher time frame and then go to the lower time frame. So on the higher time frame, we can clearly see that there is no clear trend on the monthly chart. Okay. After the drama we did have in 2006 towards 2009, then basically which continued until 2011. That's it. The price is moving in between these two massive swings, doing not much. However, the interesting part here is the most recent momentum. We do see the pound yen pushing and making higher highs, higher lows without changing the trend, without. Really making it look like it's over, and such a push could take us towards the next important levels. Okay, so this is the instant resistance we have. The next resistance will be these two spikes that were broken. Okay, there is a very good chance the pound yen will eventually take us towards this zone. So with This analysis in mind on the long term, let's go to the shorter term. It's very funny to call a weekly chart the short term, but that's what it does. At the end of these three waves, the pound yen comes and creates a corrective movement. As per the corrective movement, the usual price reaction is the ABCD, assuming the trend is completed. If the trend is not completed, then just a pullback and continuation could happen. Alternatively to such cases is a range, and this is pretty much what we are facing at the moment. It's ranging, okay? And with such a range, very likely to assume that the trend will eventually try to continue further on. So if the longer-term trend indeed is not over, drop down to the daily chart and we can clearly see that the momentum here still continues. The price still creates higher highs, higher lows, which stands for the uptrend. If we connect the highs and the lows, we have the price is somewhere in between. So very likely to assume that with any pullback, the price could try and make the continuation. There is though Something tricky with this current scenario. Okay, if we are on top of the range, then based on the daily chart, we are on a supply zone. And from this area, a lot of traps could happen. A lot of attempts to make it, uh, pushing through could turn to be fake and the price pushes lower. So personally, I would not be surprised if the short term would basically be busy with that exactly. How? By trying to make some pullback here or one more fake high, create a rejection. Okay, fake highs on the chart versus lower highs on the indicator and cause some pullbacks. On the short term, there is a very good chance that the mentioned supply area would behave as a rejection zone. And will provide pullbacks. Of course, not just because there is a rejection, it's reason to sell. But if you see that the price rejects and starts to create bearish divergences, lower highs on the indicator, clear candle patterns that hint that the sellers are taking control, this could provide a short-term sell opportunity. For the longer run, these are the 2 zones we currently face. Let's mark them. Okay, so broken resistance, these 2 highs become the supportive area. This is first zone, and then we have the next important zone right here. So as long as these 2 levels hold, any pullback— let's try to go there— okay, any pullback towards there, here, or the next one should for the longer run be opportunities to join the ongoing daily, weekly, monthly chart. Again, short term could create some, uh, um, tricky movements zigzagging back and forth, back and forth, some rejections like we saw pretty much on the first visit close to the supply area. But the longer term could be bullish. And the reason for that is mainly because that the bearish divergence started before, which was here, did not manage to bring anything significant. If the trend is about to change, then what does happen here? We start to see the trending structure building the lower highs, lower lows. In that case, it did not. It simply is flirting and holding that even during the beginning of this week here. Okay, it was flirting, flirting, never makes lower lows, and that's a sign that the sellers are not yet ready to attack. And if the sellers are not ready to attack on the short term and potentially change the trend on the long term, then very likely the buyers are still here and are still ready to push the price further upside. So this is my observation on the pound yen, both the short term and the long term. And the final one, the gold. Actually, this one is very interesting. A lot of— I don't know to tell how many— a lot of questions I received recently. Vlad, Vlad, what's going on with gold? Do you think we are going to the all-time highs? The answer is yes, I do. I believe it is time for the all-time high, and right now gold very likely Completing its final wave upside. How far will that go? I really don't know to predict, and it's not our job to predict. We we're not we're not here to predict. We are here to just try to trade the opportunity. However, I saw a lot of forecasts trying to figure out the levels of the gold numbers like 2,500 or 3,000 and so on. Very possibly for the long run. I'm not sure though it will happen on this ride. I do believe we're gonna see the eventually the new all-time high, but look what's coming here. The slowdown will go and build up. The last time there was a divergence on such a long term was here actually. Okay, with this, the market making the higher highs versus lower highs, and the RSI was right on the 80. Okay, assuming there will be one more, uh, push higher here, it will create a new divergence between the MACD— higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the indicator— as well as the RSI. Such case could bring a lot of pressure to the downside. Now How does that possible? The logic is very simple. As soon as the gold will push through and make a new high, be sure there will be a lot of, I would say, not trained or not too smart maybe money coming in. Those who just try to ride the wave because there will be a lot of Papers and articles never see great, saying the gold is an all-time high. Da da da. And you know, a lot of people just say, "Oh, it's time to buy gold," and they buy gold. And many times, many times, what happens in such cases? As soon as everybody buying, the price drops. So it's important to remember that, and buy a little bit after. The first wave is buying it. Okay, so it's important to pay attention to that. And here we go to the weekly chart. We actually face very interesting scenario here. The gold is building right now a tiny pullback. Why is it tiny? Because look at the candles. Despite them making the lower highs, lower lows, 2 last weekly candles, they are still stuck inside the bigger weekly view. That's usually a sign that it's nothing more than just a pullback before the further continuation. The fact that we have higher highs here and lower highs on the histogram but never flipping from the positive to negative to lower positive yet teaches us that very likely it's not over. So buy the pullbacks here still remains my plan. And if we go to the daily chart, here is where it starts to be interesting. I do believe this was the first wave. Now we are in the second, and after this pullback, we should see the further continuation. So where are the key levels for the gold? Broken resistance becomes a support, okay? And of course, we also have the ongoing supportive line here. We have the volumes on here, so all that becomes a classical supportive area, number one. And the next one might be slightly lower, even though I, I'm doubtful we can go there. That's right here around the 1800. So what I personally would be looking at is the following. Take a look what happens here with the Bollinger Bands. Okay, you can see that on my indicator here. Every time before we got big red cloud, the market reacted strongly to the downside eventually. Okay, well, it happened here, it happened here, here. Okay, same of course with the, uh, when the key ride happens on the lower band here and here. So right now we are on the ride on the upper band, and with that comes some pressure here. And I believe we should retest the lower band of the Bollingers. Very possibly the market will build a bullish hidden divergence where we will see Higher lows on the chart versus lower lows on the indicator. It's a bullish or inverted divergence, and from there, very possibly further continuation upside. Okay, so with that in mind, here is the first zone for us that we should be looking at if the gold managed to do something like. That scenario push, okay, and complete the move down. Or if the move here simply happens to be, you know, just holding, we're waiting until the daily will complete the bullish hidden divergence or the reversal sign there. This is very likely where the 4-hour chart will start to flip and eventually make higher lows, higher highs, and from there the buys should be a good opportunity. Now let's take a look quickly on the statistics. So with the statistics in mind, also I would be paying attention to— take a look— 28th and the 1st and the 3rd, very, very strong days for potential buys. So if we manage to get these low created, as we discussed, next to our key level. We also have bullish statistical days in mind at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. It creates for us a bullish window or bullish week ahead. So together with the price analysis, it could be very beautiful opportunities to start, uh, looking for potential buys. On the goal to try and to join this ongoing trend. So what are your thoughts on the instruments I shared with you—the euro dollar, the pound yen, and gold? Share with us in the comment section below this video. Also, I have a request from you: if you find value in my videos and you appreciate my work, please hit this like button. Consider subscribing to the channel if you are new to this channel, and. Welcome to our community, first of all. And also, I would like to take this opportunity and to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. 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