💥 Forex Weekly Analysis & Forecast - 27 September To 2nd October 2020 💥 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Traders Academy Club, and this video is the forex market analysis and the forecast. Uh, this, uh, video is for the week of, uh, 27 September until the 2nd of October. It's the beginning of a new month, one month before the US elections, and the market, the way it behaves is preparing the ground for some, uh, some volatile period. So, uh, this week we got a very volatile market, and the way I see that, it should be here for a while, and we might enjoy from great opportunities by the market. So it's time to be in trading. Summer is over, and it's time to be there when and as things happen. If you are new to this channel, first of all, welcome to our fantastic community. I would like to invite you to subscribe to this channel. Just follow the subscribe button below the video, and when you click the subscribe, remember to enable the notifications so you know when I upload new content for you and new trading ideas and new educational videos. As well, I would like to invite you to join our trading club, the Traders Academy Club, and you can also follow our work in our free Telegram channel where we share educational posts, trading idea ideas posts, and much more. Both links could be found below this video in the description or in the comment section inside the pinned comment. So let's begin. What do we have for this week? But before that, Quick reminder: on Monday, as every week, I publish text format. Okay, text version for the forecast. So just come to the blog VladimirRebakov.com, and you will see here a post preparing the text version for you, for your comfort. This is done so you can always come back and refer. To the forecast and remind yourself the ideas as we have them. Also, quick reminder for if you are new to the channel, of course, if you go to the Forex Education tab inside this blog, you have here a lot of great free tools and free ebooks that could be beneficial to you as well in your trading. So what was in the previous week that developed well and what can we expect for the coming week. Let's quickly review the previous week ideas and where do we stand with them, and then we cover the coming week ideas as well. So USD/CAD, we were under a very strong supportive zone with a very strong bullish divergence from the daily time frame. The idea was get this rally happening, and with the break of the 4-hour chart range We expect to see further continuation upside. When we take a look on the dollar CAD, as we broke the range, we got the breakout, we got the pullback, and we got a fantastic rally and opportunity. So dollar CAD was one of the better pairs this week. We also were trading the euro dollar to the downside, expecting to see that correction happening. Uh, and the euro dollar, as you probably followed, made a great move to the downside. Uh, so, um, yeah, so far so good with this pair. We were bearish under the pressure of the 4-hour chart divergence. We expected to see another leg to the downside, and again here as well, we got a great drop. Pound also won, was one of these beautiful pairs to deliver. CAD franc, it was a summary from 2 weeks ago. Pound kiwi, after enjoying the move down, we expected to see pullback to the upside and then to provide us some opportunities and some evidences for the bearish direction. So we got the rally and now potentially to look for some bearish evidences. It's still not in play. Still not completed. So the way I see this pair, I will cover also in a minute. I just want to finish the review before. Uh, and we had the New Zealand franc. The idea here was bullish as long as this supportive area holds, but this idea failed to deliver. That was the idea here, as long as we hold. We came to retest it, but it never managed to gain any momentum. Instead, it broke down. This idea failed. Uh, the Dow Jones, we were bearish, and as long as the resistance hold, we were after the bearish view. And Dow Jones also delivered, and delivered, I think, big time. So that's the previous week. It was one of these weeks that almost everything you aim to do in the market works. Of course If you apply specific technical analysis techniques, and it was very good week. So what can we expect for the coming week? And for that, where is my oh here. And for that, let's start. I will start with the euro dollar. We are bearish since the previous week, and the way I see that this is still under correction. There is no ending sign, at least according to the daily. What do we have on this pair and what can we expect further? Watching on the 4-hour chart, assuming this is the first leg, then there is a good chance we are heading towards the 161.8 extension. There is some slowdown around the 100 moving average. Uh, sorry, around the 100% Fibonacci expansion. I was looking at that 200 moving average and say 100 moving average. So we also have some slowing down bullish divergence here on the MACD, also the RSI. Likely to assume we will face some sort of pullbacks, but then I expect the euro dollar to continue further until the daily and the 4-hour would be synchronized. Again, as for now they are not, uh, to avoid any surprises by the market. Currently this is the developing trend, as we can see here it gains the momentum. As long as we are below 61.8, uh, Fibonacci retrace zone, I think that's where we are heading. If we suddenly go and cross through 61.8 in one straight leg, this is a no-go. That's a red bulb by the market saying the bears are not here. As long as this invalidation plan did not happen, I expect the euro dollar to continue to deliver to the downside. So that's my first pair, which I find very, very interesting. Pound New Zealand, I promised to. Mention again. Now, on the longer term, the scenario starts to be tricky because there is a bullish divergence on the weekly chart. So sells for the long term currently are not correct. But on the short term, I think that this is the place where we need to pay attention to. We have a strong resistance zone here, as you can see, right? All this area See here, right? And also this zone here, very, very, very, very strong area. Also the dynamic 200 moving average. And I think if we get closer to this zone, this is the place where we can expect the market to complete a divergence on the indicators MACD and RSI as well. And from here to provide us some good opportunities, at least for the short term, with bearish bounces. So the way I see that, if the pair managed to reach this box, this is the place where I will looking for bearish evidences and to enjoy bearish bounces. So that's my view here. What do you think about this pair? How do you see the pound New Zealand? Are you bullish, bearish? Where are you heading with this pair, if at all? And also. If there is any instrument that I did not cover, but you do want me to COVID leave the request in the comment section. Drop your question there, and if I have an analysis for this instrument, I'll be more than happy to share with you. If you find these ideas interesting and helpful, please show your support back. Hit the like button. Your help is very much appreciated. And helps the channel. So the next interesting opportunity, as I see that for the coming week, is the dollar franc. And here is why. Watching on the Fibonacci expansion, like the euro dollar, this has a room towards 161.8. So this is for the longer run, right? So likely to assume the market would. Try something like that. And this is exactly what I will be interested to see from this pair. But when we watch on— let me just put it here— when we watch on this zone, little zone of consolidation, then massive breakout through. Now it's retesting that. We are riding the upper Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles, right? We have a clear slowdown on the Bollinger, on the MACD histogram. That all that becomes a strong zone, very strong zone. Watching on a one-hour chart, we have a massive divergence. Actually, it started even before on the moving average. Now also the RSI joins the party. There is a great reason to believe that this area. That we marked right now, right? This area is going to be a resistance area for the short term, and from this zone, likely to assume we would experience some sort of corrections, where after, if we manage to reach this supportive zone— and also we can, of course, you can see here the supportive area Right, this and this. And also back to— and as long as we are holding this, uh, rising supportive trend line, if we manage to get these pullbacks on the short term, I expect to see this pair pushing forward towards the 161.8 expansion I showed before. So little drops here potentially providing a bullish hidden divergence. Should provide us further buy opportunities. My that's my view on dollar franc. How do you see this pair? Let me know what do you think about it. I'm very interested to see how is your view here because around the market there is a great argument right now. A lot of traders think that's all that's all of the rallies and now it's going for completely new low of this year. Other things just the beginning of a big rally. So let me know what do you think about dollar franc. How do you see this pair and what would you expect to see out of this one? Okay, drop your view in the comment section. My next pair is the Aussie CAD. Very, very interesting pair. It has a very strong resistance zone from the weekly time frame. It has a very strong slowdown on the MACD. Uh, for a while it was holding here, this resistance, and the dynamic 200 moving average is yet bearish. Right now we went below it. This double top attempts to break below this most recent low and gain momentum here to the downside. As you can see, RSI put itself below this broken supportive area. And on the lower time frame, the way it develops, we got huge momentum here and I don't see that stopping. I do see that establishing, or at least trying to establish, some bottom on the next several days. I do see a potential go and retest of the broken area, and when and if this hidden divergence completes I expect the pair to continue lower. So the way I see the Aussie CAD is in the beginning of something bigger and deeper, and I personally think later or sooner— and it might take some time— we should see this pair reaching this key supportive area right here next to the daily dynamic 200 moving average. So for me, sell the rallies is the plan for Aussie CAD. If you are not involved. And if you are involved, then just enjoy the free ride. So Aussie CAD is another very interesting, from my point of view, opportunity, uh, which I like. Now into the commodities, and gold is going to be one of it. A lot was said about gold. What is going to happen here? Now I'm not going to give my analysis for the very, very, very long term. I will do it a bit shorter. After the massive rally we experienced here and the end of the rally with extreme divergence that we experienced here, that's very likely to assume we are heading into some corrective phase. Will that be for a very long run? Will that be only for short run? Too early to judge. One thing is clear right now: the pressure is yet bearish, and it makes sense as it is in a corrective phase. So the way I see the gold, there is still short-term room to go to the downside in this corrective phase. There are no reversal signs, so I would use this. Pullbacks as an opportunity to go and to try and to ride, uh, this one until I will be blocked by bullish divergence. Of course, ideally not only one time frame, right? The slowdown should be 4-hour, then daily also, and potentially maybe even the weekly is going to hit some bullish hidden divergence for us within the few weeks, right? But it, uh, I don't think This is over. Pullbacks are welcome, but the way I see that, we still have to complete this move down, and rallies are still opportunities to see new low from my point of view. Let me know what do you think about the gold, because from what I see around, a lot of traders start to buy and buy heavily with this drop. How do you see the gold, and what would you expect from This one, and the last one indices. The DAX is one of the more interesting. The way I see that we have here triple cycle, two false breakout on the very top, massive bearish divergence. The RSI triangle was broken, and that's a very interesting fact. And also the daily. A little slowing down range here. So how normally the market reacts from this level, we should see corrective cycle. Corrective cycle could be ABCD towards the Fibonacci retracement zones around the 50%, but also we might get some sort of a range for a while. This or other way around. Currently I don't see the daily finished the, the drop. Uh, so if my analysis is correct, then I think this is the first leg, this is the second leg, and after the pullbacks here, we should see another leg to the downside. And that's what I will be looking to trade. This leg is broken into pretty clear waves with a blocking, with a bullish divergence. These pullbacks are welcome, but after that I expect the DAX to continue and create the further continuation down. Invalidation for this plan would be if we go straight move through all the Fibonacci retraces, mainly 61.8. Of course, one straight move through that would be a very warning sign, very strong warning sign. Or if alternatively it makes 3 higher highs, higher lows. I would also invalidate this plan. So I do want to see this rally, and I mainly want to see bearish evidences at the end of the rally, like bearish divergences, and to return to bearish momentum afterwards. I would pay attention to few key levels. We have a key— oops, sorry— we have a key resistance area here, and the next one is slightly higher. This zone, also around the 200 moving average. These 2 zones are the zones I will be paying attention to, and mainly not one straight move through all the Fibonacci levels. If that happens, it invalidates the bearish view. So that's what I see. Very interesting for the coming week. There are many more instruments on the list. And for the full list, I invite you to join us in Traders Academy Club and to enjoy our live market analysis on daily basis, covered up with a full trading report with detailed analysis of all the instruments we have on our list based on all the multi-timeframe analysis we have on the list. So, uh, that would be all for today. I wish you a fantastic weekend and great trading week ahead. It's a new month starting on the coming days, so I also would like to wish you successful months ahead. Stay safe, be well, and best to you and yours in this not easy period. Thanks for your time. I'm Vladimir from Traders Academy Club, and I'll see you soon.