Forex Weekly Forecast - 10 to 14 July 2023 | USDJPY, EURGBP, NZDCAD | By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Uh, today we're preparing for trading week of 10 to 14 July 2022. I hope you've had some nice start of your summertime. As you can see, I'm not using my camera this video. The reason is I'm recovering from some fever. I'm not in my best shape, so there is nothing to show here, but I just did not want to skip the opportunity to share my analysis and trading ideas for the coming week. So we will be covering 3 instruments on this video. That will be the dollar-yen, euro-pound, and New Zealand CAD. I also want to pay attention to the news we have this week. So after the previous non-farm payrolls, after the last non-farm payrolls in the previous week, um, we saw some Good balanced report, a report that can work for work well for everyone. The question would now be, of course, the focus is now would be on the Federal Reserve latest decisions for this year. It's very mixed opinions right now. What will the Fed do? Will they really go for Another one or two final hikes of the rates, or they will slow down. And one of the main factors for these decisions might be this week. The reason is we have CPI and PPI reported in the U.S. So first of all, what to pay attention to: we have the claim count change in Britain—that's very important one on Tuesday—and then we have the cash rate decision in New Zealand. And then it starts here, as you can see, the CPI and the annual CPI. This is the main one from my point of view, the annual, because the Federal Reserve goal was and remains 2%— sorry— for the year. And the, the lower it goes, of course, the less pressure the Fed might feel of hiking Rate. So that's the main one. Even though the monthly CPI could put some pressure, and according to the forecast, the core CPI still looks as improving, and the annual CPI, at least according to the anticipation, looks good. It will be very important numbers this week, so pay attention to that. We have cash. Rate decision also in interest rate decision in Canada. Sorry, on Wednesday as well. So very busy week. Then GDP in Britain, and then PPI and core PPI monthly report in US on Thursday. Okay. So yeah, and consumer. Sentiment also on Friday. Lots of news this week. So let's start with the dollar yen. We spoke about this pair last week on the last weekly forecast. If you missed this video, you can find it of course in the channel and can watch the full analysis. One of the scenarios I was following there—we followed two scenarios. One was the four hour; another one was the one hour chart. And what we wanted is the Orient to go below this low, make 2 waves down, 2 waves up, and make the move down. And this scenario was actually the one that triggered. We went below this low in 2 waves, and then the market pulled back in 2 waves holding this resistance, and then the break below this, uh, Uh, trend line started to regain the momentum by making lower, lower highs. And you see the momentum, it's a beautiful 200 points move. And the question is now, what is coming next for the dollar yen? So take a look on the numbers here on the market trend snapshot. This is from our Home Trader Club members. Take a look on these numbers, it's— I love these numbers. To try to understand them and join the trend, or are we in the correction? So while the monthly numbers still positive, the weekly and the daily, the most recent ones, are very negative. Usually this is a sign that we are in the process of a correction, and this correction is yet to complete, okay, until the numbers flip. And this is how I see that. I try to feed it in the technical view, of course, So watching on the daily chart, you remember I spoke about it for so many times about the importance of this level. This level is holding so far. We do not have any ending signs for the long term at the moment. However, the most recent trend here came to a slowdown with the histogram divergence. While the market was making higher highs, histogram makes the lower highs. And right now I do think that this zone at least should be retested. We have a rising supportive line there, we have a lot of consolidation here, we have a beautiful volume profile based area here, as you can see. Okay, uh, it looks fantastic. So for me Any pullback is still an opportunity to look for further continuation down. Yes, there are news will be that will be published during this week that could affect how everything looks like and behaves like, but technically speaking only, the momentum was and remains bearish. And I would expect to see further continuation down after any pullback. I think this area around the 140, maybe even slightly lower, is still a legit area where this pair might try and reach. Let me know what do you think of the dollar yen in the comment section below. Do you think we will see the 140 first, or we're going to turn up already and go above 145? Share your views in the comment section below this video. The next pair I want to talk about will be the euro pound. So as we can see on a very long term, this pair has no clear trend. We are in a range. However, even on a range, there are certain levels we need to pay attention to. We've had a previous downtrend within the range, right? These ones, uh, and the most recent lows of this downtrend here, here, and then this low, right? That's the lows where the buyers were trying to take the control from. That, that's the areas where buyers show their interest, or area of demand, how I love to call it. Uh, the— on the way up after the flip, the most recent area we have is here. Okay, now why do I show you these levels? Because on a daily chart— let me just plot these levels so you would see how it's all connected. And the first lows and the second lows, these lows with these lows, and you will see how everything is connected. Now we go to the daily chart and take a look what happens on the daily chart. So this pair has at the moment a pretty clean bearish trending structure, right? We have a sequence of lower highs, lower lows, nothing seems stopping it. At least at the moment, there is no completed divergence yet, and there are no reversal signs. So with that in mind, okay, let's just remove these lines. With that in mind, if you plot the Fibonacci extension on the first leg. Okay, and then just here, this is the first— let me just show it to you one second. See, this is the first leg from here to here, and this is the second leg right here. Okay, so first leg and second leg. Okay, if we take a look on that, that means the final leg is very likely to go and complete itself. And take a look on the Fibonacci expansion— 261.61 golden ratio happens to be right next to the demand area we saw from the weekly chart where the buyers show their interest. And there's a significant zone. We have one slightly higher here, as we can see, right? But the, the main one is right here, and there is a great chance that with any short pullback this market will do, and it could do, the pair will try to go and complete it before— very likely it will then start the reversal. And that's exactly how I am looking to trade this one. Okay, so on the 4-hour chart At the moment, as we can see, what do we have here? We have here some sequence of lower highs, lower lows as well, right? So there is a good chance the market will try to pull back here. It could be in some sort of a range, right? Something like that. Uh, it could be in ABCD correction, okay, right? Or it could be nothing more than just Consolidation before the continuation. Okay, it could even try to go and complete 3 waves here and then some correction, the same style of correction. But the plan was and remains the same: sell the rallies, at least as long as this high holds. So that's exactly what I want to follow. I want the pullbacks to go and respect the first zone here or the second zone, which is the highs versus these highs. Okay, right here, that's the 2 key levels. Any pullback towards this zone with bearish evidences, bearish setup here or slightly higher, right, and I will start to look for my sell opportunities to go and to join the ongoing bearish trend. If my analysis is correct, we should see this pair reaching— just close this lower window— uh, should see this pair reaching the next important Fibonacci extension zones, followed and supported by the weekly demand areas. So what do you think about the euro pound? Are we Are we still in a bearish trend? Will we see the 0.84 first, maybe even lower? Or the bottom was created and we are on the way up to above 0.87 and maybe even above 0.88? So let me know what do you think about this one in the comment section below this video. And now I would like to take the opportunity and to thank Morgan Markets for supporting me, my channel, my work, and my community. Uh, you can learn every of the amazing features Mogul Markets has for their clients and their traders, uh, in the link below this video in the description. And also you can find out the special deal and a special offer I have with Mogul Markets to my community. Okay. Everything is below this video in the description. And the final instrument for this video would be the New Zealand CAD, also a very interesting technical opportunity. So once again, I'll go here to the members area of Home Trader Club, and I want to take a look here on the market strength snapshot. Take a look on the numbers. Okay, full synchronization monthly, daily, and the weekly. Classical conditions for me, it means that the momentum is pretty much bullish. Buy the dips would remain the plan. We have a falling resistance line here that's yet not tested in this channel. Very possibly that it will where the sellers took the control, right? We had here buyers rejecting, but this red candle, sellers take the control. So this zone is very likely eventually would be, uh, retested, okay? And for me, buy any dips here towards this zone would remain the plan. Now why specifically do I like it? The same logic as I explained before on euro pound. Remember on the move down, take a look on these lows, how beautifully they Okay, that's the zone of demand, and we got the reversal pattern here on the weekly chart. Last two candles that made lower highs, lower lows now flips and make higher highs, higher lows. All that while the market is making higher lows indicator making lower lows to complete the bullish hidden divergence. And this bullish hidden divergence is formed by. Bullish divergence on the histogram and the moving average of the MACD, as well as the RSI. And the psychological round number 0.80 is holding as well. Okay, so pretty great technical condition as we just see on the 4-hour chart. Here is what starts to happen. So we got the most recent trend line broken, all that after the bullish divergence, and the market climbs up. Now it starts to slow down here. We can see that the upper Bollinger Band, right, the ride on the upper Bollinger Band starts to slow down the pair. We could anticipate some slowdown here, and that's exactly what I want to see. I want to see pullbacks here taking place, ideally towards the supportive area or this zone, right, where the buyers try to take control. Broken, uh, resistance become the support, and from there look for bullish evidences for further continuation upside. So buy the dips for NZDCAD would be my plan. And as I showed you before, according to the Levels, I would anticipate it to go and try to climb closer to 0.84-ish, something like that. So what do you think? Are we going to 0.84, 0.85 first of all, or will we continue down all the way and see the pair breaking below the 0.80? Let me know in the comment section. And I would like to thank you for your time watching this video. As always, I hope you find value in this video. If you are new to this channel, uh, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. And if you found value, then please hit the like button. Few words of feedback in the comment section would be much appreciated. As always, And I would like to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our full courses for beginners and advanced, real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunity, trading community, and so, so much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description. Best to you and yours. Once again, thank you for your time watching this video. And I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now and good trading.