Forex Weekly Forecast 12 To 17 April 2020 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir Ribakov here from Traders Academy Club and welcome to the weekly forex forecast for the week 12th to 17th of April 2020. First of all, I hope you are well and I hope you are very safe out there in this hard, a bit crazy period. I hope you are protected and safe, and you and yours are very well. I would like to send you some positive thoughts and energies for this hard period, and I hope for all of us that it will end soon and we will return to lives as we knew them before this pandemic. If you are new to the channel, first of all, welcome. To our community, I would like to invite you to subscribe to the channel. Just follow the subscribe button below this video and remember to enable the notification. And also, I would like to invite you to join our free Telegram channel and to join my live trading rooms where you would be exposed to all the trading ideas day after day, backed up fully with trading reports, which I'll show you examples to that as well today. As always, on Monday I will publish the text version to this forecast. So what you have to do is to come to my blog vladimiribakov.com, and on Monday you would see a text version available for you. And this text version is basically a summary, a written summary to all the discussed things in the video. Okay, so when you scroll down, this is the previous week. You would have the video always to access, of course, and below you would be— you will see all the images and the explanation to them, okay, with the setups as we have them. So as I said, this will be published on Monday. You can also just come back to the video and you would see this very link available for you in the description and in the, in the comment section as well. Okay, uh, and now let's start and see what, uh, did the market prepare for us during this week. So the euro dollar was invalidated the previous week. Euro pound was very interesting pair. We had a very strong level, and the idea was to get one more push to this zone, uh, and the question would be What will happen from this area? Are we about to fly, or it would be just temporary retrace to the middle of this move down and then continuation? Now let's take a look what happened with this pair. Not much since we are basically still dancing around the same critical area, which from my point of view is yet around this zone. We didn't managed to get any significant trend change because, as you can see, it all is stuck here for many days. We do not have higher highs, higher lows as a bullish trend sign yet. Alternatively, we did not yet have false breakout and convergences in play yet. So the view remains still the same. This area is Critical, and I would want to see reversal signs here. For example, if this is the first false breakout, then I would want to see another push down to here and then creation of convergence. So imagine we move down and then we create here a convergence synchronization between the chart and the histogram of the MACD. And then we will be looking to buy retraces. Will that be for short term, like this sort of correction, or will that be a beginning of some massive new uptrend? It's too early to judge, but because we even didn't have reversal signs yet, but we definitely have to keep this idea in mind. And what should we do in case if this area doesn't hold and We simply con— wait, arrows— continue to create the lower highs, lower lows, then simply the bullish view invalidated. And that's why it's critical to pay attention to the reversal signs first. Most traders, what they do is they bet on levels. So you have a level, you didn't have any reversal sign or any synchronization with the higher timeframe, and just bet on the levels. Now there is nothing wrong with that, but that's for more advanced traders who know to protect their risk properly and to get out of positions very early if things do not develop as they expect, right? But to those who just, you know, most traders don't do that this way. Most traders enter and then they start to pray if things go against. So in order to avoid such things, because this is a very popular mistake, then the best thing to do is to wait for market facts. You want to see the reversal sign happen, and the reversal signs in the majority of cases happen in false breakout convergence principle or trend change reversal changes like the lower highs and the lower lows. When this happens, then and only then you understand that you have chances of the market to start and develop a move. As long as it didn't happen, the market basically tells you a big hint There is no real money flow and you need to be aware of that. Now, very interesting fact is, at least according to rumors out there in the industry, some banks recommend to buy the EUR/GBP as long as it holds above the 0.086 zone and they expect movement up to 0.090, 0.091, which will fit classically in this zone If we manage to get the reversal, even if we go like for two waves correction, this is still a massive area potentially to provide good profits. Now before it's done, very important as as I said before is to pay attention to the facts. Now take a look what happens on the lower time frame. You see instead of like reversal signs, right? We are looking for three higher highs, three higher lows. Instead of that, we got only two. And it was ABCD, and we got one more low, then another false breakout. Then again, we are looking for the higher highs, higher lows for trend change. It doesn't happen yet, right? And that's why again, again, I repeat that follow facts because if these facts would miss and never come in, then very, very, very, very possible we are going to go all the way to new lows. Until clearer things will build up. So follow the fact, not your wishes, not drawings, and not expectations or rumors. Follow what the market tells you on the chart. Bullish trend is defined by making higher highs, higher lows, or at least a potential beginning after you break The idea of the lower highs, lower lows, and start to create the first higher highs, at least on this way, right? So very important to understand that, and very important to remember the six these things follow the facts. And now to the next pair. But before that, I would like to ask your help and to your your support. First of all, this video is completely free. To the community out of charge, and it's available for you always in my YouTube channel. So feel free to share this video and spread the word to any of your community, any of your friends, any of your colleagues, any of your traders you work with. The idea of this video is to help give some ideas and expose to interesting things as I see them. So your help will be very much appreciated and welcome. And if you find this Sort of videos and the text format of the forecast which I publish on Mondays. If you find it helpful, educational, and useful, please show your support back. Leave the feedback below in the comment section and hit the like button. It means a lot to me. It means a lot to the channel. And thank you very much for for your help in advance. Next pair on our list was the Euro CAD. Where we were following for again for this zone as, uh, as buys. But before I forget, uh, I wanted to remind you about, uh, the special, uh, offer we have in this crisis, uh, uh, time. This is a lifetime access to the Trader's Workshop plus 6 free months access to the Traders Academy Club. All my live trading rooms, all the trading reports, and our trading chat. 6 free months. This is a very temporary offer. It's done mainly to help the community and enjoy a special offer during these hard times. You can get it in a 15% discount price or completely free. Completely free with the broker's program we have. So this link is available to you right now on the right side of this video, um, or below in the description and in the comment section in the first pinned comment. Okay, you will see all the information available there. The access to the workshop would basically bring you to such— this is a members area inside. And you will be exposed here to multiple subjects from beginners through advanced trading tool indicators, strategies, technical analysis, pro analysis techniques, psychological approach, fundamental approach, and many more things. The best part here, this is a lifetime access and the videos always come up more and more and more new videos New content available for you there. So enjoy this offer as long as it's available. As I said, it's it's temporary. So let's continue now. I hope to see you there with us. EuroCAD reached that very important zone after the triple double. So my expectation according to the higher time frame analysis is this. This is a higher time frame trendline breakout, so I expect retraces and continuation. So basically, this bullish hidden divergence on the daily chart, I expect to bring this continuation upside, and the break above this trend line would be a great trigger. So this trend line yet to be broken, it's not there yet, and I want to see the break of this trend line and, as always, return of the buyers. How the buyers return to the game? By creating higher highs and Higher lows. We got it. We have a sign to trade. We don't. We are on waiting mode, and EuroCAD is exactly there right now. Previous week was pretty slow. Okay, as you can as you saw, and it's normal. It's logical before Easter and the Good Friday, and especially in such period that we had dramatical moves on the last couple of months. Right now, the market is in a zone of. Refilling itself, recharging itself, preparing the next move based on the next fact. Okay, so it would not be surprising if we will continue and see such moves more on the shorter term. There will be, however, instruments that will be more active. Previous week, that was the Australian pairs, which I'll show in a few minutes. Okay, so don't always Follow to the default, default instruments like most traders follow. Oh, it has to be euro dollar or dollar yen or pound dollar or or gold or or oil. Not always these instruments would move. Not always there will be opportunities. So my personal approach, and I don't say it's right or wrong, but my personal approach, I don't care of the name of the instrument. What I care about is All the signs of volatility, of trend structure, of synchronization on the multiple time frame—it's there. I trade. I don't care of the of the name. So as you can see, the Europe pairs, for example, they are zigzagging. They are slow. They are stuck in ranges. So does that mean we have to stop our trading? Of course not. And such examples would I—I'll show you from the trading report. Previous week we managed to enjoy both Aussie CAD and. And Aussie dollar on Wednesday, and I'll show you in a second. Uh, okay, so just wanted to show you and remind you, if you have an instrument you love but the opportunity is not there and it's not moving, don't close your eyes to other opportunities. The market is there, the market is moving, and it doesn't matter if it'll be only one pair during the week. So what? As long as you manage to get your clear idea And you have that moving, go with that. That's what's the most important thing. So the euro CAD was slow. It doesn't change. I still want to see this breakout and the higher highs, higher lows. We didn't get it yet. So waiting mode is yet valid there. It's still a valid setup, but waiting to see how it behaves. Aussie CAD behaved as the ABCD here until It this one, the ABCD until we ended up with the bullish divergence. After that, it started to recreate the direction and basically from this moment, it's higher highs, higher lows. It's a trending structure, which brings back to the to the table long-term analysis. We are here under some massive bullish pressure. From the monthly chart, backed up with the weekly chart as well. As you can see on this triple cycle, I ignore this spike because the trend, the momentum continued afterwards to the downside. And we have this divergence here, so it looks very, very, very, very powerful. The daily time frame was bouncing from the extreme, and the 4-hour creates the Trending structure. We also are breaking through this trend line. So the way I see that, the Aussie CAD, the Aussie Kiwi, sorry, changes its direction and it's long-term buys. Retraces are good to be considered very likely as a bullish sign. I will be paying attention to this 61.8 of the rally just to avoid a sudden crash. If it goes one straight leg below 61.8, This is a no-go. This is a neutral condition. Until then, buy retraces is my plan here, and that's pretty much it. All it— the, the structure changed itself, therefore we go back to the higher time frame to check the verifications. There they are, there, and the bullish view activated. And as long as the 61.8 Which is the last Fibonacci retrace level of the rally. As long as it holds and we don't have one straight move below, the bullish view is on. Dollar yen, it was from previous week. We moved neutral. Now here is a very interesting one: CAD yen. Also, the idea was looking for the sell as long as we are below the invalidation. Uh, but look what happened since. We are flat. And as always, the idea here is very, very simple. Once you get trending structure, you want to see the market moving. The trend continues when it creates lower highs, lower lows, or higher highs, higher lows in uptrend, right? But that's how trend continues. If that doesn't happen That doesn't happen. There is no trade. So it brings back the question of the higher time frame. The higher time frame cycle did not change. The only question probably here is a question of timing. So, uh, since this becomes flat, you see, it doesn't break below the trend line, it slides through the trend line, and it doesn't gain the momentum. So there is no need to fight. So we are in a possible longer scale of correction until this trend line is broken. Okay, it all also fits here in this, uh, um, more like a paternal, um, ranging structure. And as long as we are above this trend line, this ABCD could continue and be created. It could also hold, hold at the tops, no problem. But we definitely, definitely need to recreate the lower highs, lower lows before any next sell takes place, or at least start and form some fake breakouts here, fakes high with divergences and then convergences. Okay, as for now, it's— it will be removed from the list. It's flat, so no need to, to fight. And before I go to the other instruments, I want to, as I promised, to show you two very interesting things we enjoyed from this week in the Traders Academy Club. And despite a slow week, we managed to catch them pretty beautifully. Both belong to the Australians. Now I promised to show you how trading report look like, right, in the Academy. That's how it looks like. This is a trading report coming to you on daily basis. For those of you who are not part of the Academy, uh, now inside you would find the, of course, all the most important videos available for you in the members area, but this watchlist. And this watchlist, all you have to do is basically click on the image and it will show you exactly what we expect and how. Okay, you click on the image and it shows you the pattern, shows you the divergences And this is the reminder and the summary of to the things we discuss in the live trading room on daily basis. Okay, now that's below comments and basically explanation about what you see on the chart. So this is available for you always on daily basis to all the members. Okay, now. If you think such thing could be helpful to your trading, then I invite you to join the Traders Academy Club. The link is below in the description and in the comment section. Just please, okay, it's very important for me to mention that and to keep, to keep it, the expectations realistic. We are not doing any sort of magic. Okay, it's not like any get-rich-fast, uh, solutions or anything like that. We're following the market real time, day after day, validations and invalidations of the analysis and the setups. There are weeks when the market moves where we enjoy from multiple instruments. There are weeks like the previous week where we are able to enjoy only from 2, 3, 4 pairs out of all the list. So, uh, please make sure you understand I'm not any sort of trading wizard or magician to deliver, you know, moves out of nowhere. I follow the market, I follow the facts, I trade it day after day and explain all these things to you in the live trading rooms. Validation and invalidations— you do not get the exact signal here, enter here, exit here. That's not the club. It's not signal service. It is real-time education based on the proven technical analysis methods day after day with a follow-up of all of the instruments. Very important to understand. Okay, so if this kind of things would be a help to you, I'll be, I'll be more than happy To be there for you, and I invite you to join our family and to enjoy from all the value we have there again on daily basis for you. It's important to understand it's huge work to put it together, and we do that with a big, big, big, big love. And again, that's our list. That's how we traded. And if things validated, they are there. If they are invalidated. They are on the table. All the explanations are available for you there. So Aussie CAD, as I promised to show the first one, the idea we had was bullish expectations after the correction. The reason is because we had a trending structure to the upside and we got the ABCD correction with a bullish hidden divergence. So the idea was to get These rallies, and we were waiting on a lower time frame for the trending structure take place, and it did. And all the rest is history. The pair is flying, and again, out of slow market conditions, this is a fantastic move of 300 points. Okay, so what's next with this pair? My view still remains bullish, like the Aussie. Kiwi I mentioned before, and I think we are still here after the bullish view, meaning buy retraces would be yet my plan. The corrections might be— sorry, the corrections might be a bit deeper this time rather than that, or just some sort of, you know, flat movement. But the way I see that, then retraces and bullish continuation as long As this pair remains above 61.8. And another one which we had on the list that came on Wednesday, that was Aussie dollar. Also the expectations for that to reach the next Fibonacci expansions. So we were after buys here. Also trending structure Spotted here, verified on the higher time frame. Let me show it here. Here we are. Okay, so the higher time frame bullish extreme divergence from the weekly, bullish extreme divergence from the daily, trending structure from the four-hour, and the beautiful rally. As simple as that. So now we are building here this second leg. I assume we will face some slowdown here. We have 20 candles plus, uh, Bollinger Bands right here, very likely to face some sort of correction. And I personally think it will be temporary again before further continuation to the upside. The way I see that, this is a beginning of a potential deeper correction move. And that's why my view. So we again another pair managed to enjoy from despite the slow move, but you know in such conditions when you enjoy every one two hundred pips move, it's it's accumulating and it's compounding and it pays. And I think that the Australian pairs would be very interesting for the coming period. As well. Next one which I want to go over is the coffee, which I find very interesting. The way I see that we are here in this at the end of this massive cycle bullish divergence, so I would expect some good healthy corrections here. But there is some contradiction developing on the weekly, and this contradiction is the way that it. Look, this leg looks like this is a potential triple double. So why I say potential? Because if we break below this trend line, that becomes ABCD breakout and then expectations of a new low. But as long as it holds, it fits perfectly in the assumption of the higher time frame reversal. How and why false breakout in play convergence is in play here, and we are developing currently two higher highs, higher lows. But this is a bullish hidden divergence. So as long as this trend line holds, the my personal view is bullish. And on the daily time frame, basically we are developing. Also in the, in the current, in the current rally, also 2, uh, higher highs, higher lows. And we don't have the breakout here, and we also don't have divergence against, which again from my point of view makes it bullish. And the 4-hour chart currently starts to look interesting, uh, from hidden divergence. We are here, this was a hidden, and it turns to be continuing. So we might play in this zone a bit, maybe even do something like that. But personally, I think that as long as the weekly trend holds, buy retraces would be the right thing for this, uh, instrument. And, um, I believe coffee has more room to the upside than to the downside. Again, most important thing is the invalidation, to know until when your plan is Valid, and my plan is valid as long as we are above this trend line. So very, very, very important thing here. Now back to the forecast from previous week. Sell rallies is the plan for the indices. Expecting one of the scenarios is expecting the new high, which is currently created. Let me just find it. S&P. Now I showed the S&P, but it could be applied to all of them. Uh, the rally here happens in 2 waves. The divergence there is there. This is our clearance zone. This is another one, a very important 2 strong levels. And this is our trend line. Break below that, very likely will deliver the next move to the downside. Should you rush there? No, from my point of view, no. It's not too smart to try and to call where would be the top. So I would definitely want to see the break of the trendline, or at least to see a beginning of a trending structure to understand the bears are likely Taking the control again. For long term, my view remains bearish. I believe that this convergence now is serious, and this is what's coming next. That's why my view is bearish according to this cycle. Now just waiting for the fact. Once the facts are in play, we can enjoy enjoy them and. Uh, uh, trade them. Okay, so that's pretty much about this week. Previous week was slow. This week, as I showed you, we have several very interesting opportunities yet to follow. Some of them from the euros, we are waiting for validation of the setup. Some of them are from the Pacifics, like the Australians, where they show a beautiful formation synchronized on the higher time frame. We have some commodities We have the indices to pay attention to. And as I said before, as I said before in the video, we don't need many instruments to make profits. You need to spot these 1 or 2 instruments in slow weeks and to ride them. This previous week was the Australians. Which would be this week? I don't know how to predict. But what I know is once things are synchronized on several time frames in the same directions, I have better chances. To enjoy from a good trade. And this is why you will see in my trading reports what I showed you there, right, in the academy, you will see a lot of instruments that we follow and we are waiting for setups there. And that's why it's a follow-up on daily basis to see what happens, when happens, how validated, how invalidated, and when which of them would get triggered. I have no clue, no one does. I follow the facts As if the market gives me the facts, I'm there. If the market tells me get out, I get out. Like the CAD yen, which I showed you before. Okay, very, very important to understand. My lines do not make the market move. Your lines will not make the market move. If they— if our lines synchronized with the market moves, ride it. If they are not, do not try to be smarter than the market and convince the market that your lines are still valid. Follow the facts. That's where you will get your better chances, and that's where will be your opportunities. So I would like to thank you very much for watching. I hope, as I said before at the beginning, that you are safe, you are well. I hope you find such videos both educational and beneficial to show you where the focus in the current period. Again, sometimes we have better market conditions and faster market conditions like several weeks ago and several months ago. Sometimes the conditions are more slower. It doesn't matter what the— what lines we draw. Remember, we will never affect the market. So follow what it gives you. If it's 1 instrument per week or 15 instruments per week, just be there when things happen and when they are synchronized. I would like to invite you once again to join our family in the live trading rooms. And the trading chat. Just follow the links below in the description or the pinned comment, and I hope to see you there with us and to keep helping you with well with all I can. Not all not all the things I know, not all the things I can explain, but the things I know to do, I I can help with them. Until then, stay safe. I wish you best, and I'll see you soon. With other other material available. Have a great week and thank you for your time. Yours Vladimir Bakhov, Traders Academy Club.