Forex Weekly Forecast | 2 to 6 October 2023 | EURUSD,GOLD,CADCHF - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to the weekly forex forecast. In today's video, I would like to share with you three very interesting trading opportunities I find for the current week. That would be the euro dollar, the gold. And the CAD franc. Ready? Let's begin. So the very first instrument would be the euro dollar. The very interesting part I find here, starting from the weekly time frame, is that from the very bottom of the last quarter of 2022, the euro dollar had a massive rally. This rally happened to be in 2 beautiful waves. The first wave here And the second wave here. But the classical part is the bounce, right? The bounce happened to be for for a good reason from a major supply zone after completing here bearish divergence. While the market was making the higher highs, we got the lower highs on the moving average of the MACD. Since then, the euro dollar is under bearish negative momentum. And the biggest question here is, is it over? So personally, I am not quite sure it is, as we clearly can see that the market also flips. And from making sequence of higher highs, higher lows, we start to see lower lows in play. The biggest question here, down to where can we go? Right now the price is in between 38 to 50% Fibonacci. Of this weekly lag. Where are we going next? So the— of course, 50% is a key zone, and the next one is 61.8. But in terms of not just Fibonacci, in terms of, um, demand areas and where could the buyers show their interest, we have this important low that was broken, right, then retested, and it becomes very interesting zone of interest. And then we have the next one with the same sequence: low, then retested, right? So this would be a very possible key final zone according to the weekly chart. Now let's take a look on the daily chart and try to understand, do we have any signs here that maybe it's over? The answer is not really. The daily chart offers also a clean sequence of Lower highs, lower lows. We are moving in sort of a bearish channel here, and we can clearly see here based on the volume profile cloud where the money is. Okay, any pullback back to this zone, the money zone, should provide possible further bearish continuation, right? The sequence is clean, lower highs, lower lows. Do we have any divergence here on the MACD, something that hints it's over? Do we have anything on the other side? Answer is no. The indicator is in full synchronization with the price. Usually it is a sign that we have room for continuation. Moreover, let's take a look on the numbers of the move. So this is the market strength snapshot, one of the features we have in Home Trader Club. Take a look on the euro dollar and its numbers. Look at these beautiful synchronization between the monthly and the seven days. Monthly is very negative with more than 2.5 percent to the downside. The last seven days were slightly below the one percent. Only that last 24 hours were flirting. These numbers usually. are a sign of a clean negative sentiment or bearish market, which is classically lined up with what we just saw on the technical analysis. So taking these numbers and going back to the charts and connecting it to the weekly and the daily chart, the classical logic here is sell the rallies towards the 50%, down to 61%, where we saw there is a clean weekly, um, demand areas we found before. So if we go to the 4-hour chart, right, to try to find the zones, we have a broken support that now acts as a resistance, and we have the broken support that now acts as a resistance. This is a classical first zone to look for possible sells. Any pullback closer to the zone or inside the zones And we can start looking for bearish evidences and go for sell. So this was the first key zone. The next one is slightly higher. We have sequence of lows here, right, that was, uh, warbroken eventually and became as a resistance and a supply area. And that happens to be right here. Low, low, low, then high, high, high. Classical final zone, right? So in case the first zone does not hold And the price managed to go and push slightly higher than that. This would be the next zone to go and to look for major major sells on the euro dollar to join the current ongoing bearish momentum. So that's my view. Sell the rallies on the euro dollar. Let me know what do you think about it, and let's see. Do you think the euro dollar can reach again the level of parity? The one Or it will find the bottom somewhere like 104, 103, and then turn around back to 110. Share with me your views in the comment section. Will be very interesting to see what do you think, as the views on the market are pretty much split. Share us what are your views in the comment section. The next one would be the gold, and this one is a beast. From what seemed to be unstoppable train to create absolutely all-time highs, the gold is bouncing and bouncing strong to the downside. The question is, down to where? Are we close to the bottom? So let's take a look on the charts and try to figure out the situation. So what's pretty obvious, uh, on the weekly chart is that the gold is holding and respecting A horizontal range. Okay, call it consolidation, call it a range, call it whatever you prefer, but the respect of the sequence of highs, the respect of the lows create here a zone of consolidation. What will then bring in the future? There will— there are way too many, uh, factors for that. I personally think that we will eventually see all-time high But the bottom line is we are currently on a weekly range. The question is what's next? So here is what we saw from the gold after the most recent rally. We came to the top of this range sequence of fake highs with big spikes and a major turnaround. The next important zones are Here, broken resistance became a support, and that falls together with Fibonacci expansion on the 100. Also take a look here on the volume profile zone, okay? That will be a classical first area where the gold is very likely heading. And the next one, in case this one is broken, is the bottom of the range and on Fibonacci expansion 161.8. Okay, it fits classically in this area as well. So from my point of view, and based on the weekly chart analysis and the current sentiment on the market, I believe there is more to come to the downside. Let's go to the daily chart and try to figure out what do we actually see on a daily chart. So plotting, uh, on a Bollinger Band, I want to show you here a very interesting, uh, scenario. Take a look what happens with the Bollinger Bands in terms of the duplication. Okay, so this is what you see on the chart. Uh, it's my Bollinger Band indicator with 2 absolutely amazing features I love to use: Bollinger Bands Riding, which gives me these clouds where I know there is a sell zone or a buy zone if it's a blue, right? Again, and Um, the second feature which I love here is duplications. Once a breakout happens, I love to plot the, uh, um, duplication feature to try to figure out where are the possible supportive areas based on the Bollinger Band range at the moment of the breakout. So this breakout of the lower band then happened to be here. The duplication first is here, second is here. Take a look where it is. It's right next to the demand which we discussed before, the broken resistance that is now a support, right? And the demand area, a lot of buyers here. And the Fibonacci expansion— well, this is the expansion of the plot, okay? But this is the key zone, and I believe that we should see the gold coming very close to there. From there, I do expect that the gold will try to reject, at least on a short term, and and create some sort of a pullback before possible continuation lower towards the 161.8. Around this first zone, I do anticipate the RSI to be very close, if not right on the oversold, the key oversold conditions of 20, level of 20. So with all that being said, I believe that gold is yet sell the rallies. Okay, and if we take a look on the 4-hour chart, we are currently standing in these perfect conditions where if the daily really reaches this zone, 4-hour will complete its 3 lower highs, lower lows, reach this key zone. Remember the 100% Fibonacci expansion and the demand area and the classical Bollinger Band application. From here, I believe the gold will go and complete a divergence. While the market will make lower lows, the gold will make higher lows. That could be on the MACD, that could be on the RSI as well. Bullish divergence condition. We already have, right, the riding on the lower Bollinger Band, uh, for over than 20 candles. This is one of the features I shared with you before I love in Bollinger Bands, which brings it all together, that this should be a key buy zone on a short term, very possibly back inside this zone, the zone of sellers. Why this zone is critical? It also was a support that was broken, now will act as a resistance. And we can see how many sellers took the control here after attempting here, right, back and forth between the buyers and the sellers, and then a boom to the downside. So that's how I believe the gold is going to play, and that would— I would be focusing on the short term during this week. Let me know what is your view on gold. How would you expect the gold to behave this week, especially because that is also a non-farm payroll week, which could of course have its impact? on the price. Share your views in the comment section below this video. And of course, thanks in advance. The final instrument for this week will be the CAD/CHF. But before I go to the charts, I would like to take the opportunity and to welcome you to this channel. If you are new to this channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. Just remember to enable the notification so you know when there is new content available for you. Also, if you find value in this video, please hit the like button. Feel free to share it with anyone who you believe can benefit watching this video. And of course, thank you very much in advance for your help, for your support. So let's continue. So CAD/CHF is the next major opportunity I find, and here is why. According to the very long term, at the end of these waves, the major waves down, we can see how it is rounding Right, rounding bottom here. But take a look what happens here. While the market makes the lower lows, indicators make higher lows, screaming that very possibly buyers are planning to take control. Going to the weekly chart, the most recent trend line we've had was broken on this sequence of lower highs. But the interesting part here was not just the trend line, but that after these fake lows or attempt to make lows, right, the first low was deep, second low was much smaller, it all happened to be under bullish divergence. The market was making the lower lows, indicator making higher lows, a classical turnaround of events which usually brings a corrective structure of ABCD or some range for a while. Which for us means very likely buy the dips. Now let's take a look on the numbers. So going back again to the Home Trader Club market trend snapshot, take a look on the CAD franc. Look at the numbers. The monthly close to 4% on the positive, the 7 days over 1%, only the last 24 hours is negative. Usually such numbers hint that the buyers are here taking control. Buy the dips would be the right plan. The numbers, pure numbers of price, uh, change fit perfectly and what we just saw on the chart. Okay, therefore, with the RSI being overbought right from this supply area, I would expect to see a pullback, and from there another rally to take place. The key levels to start looking for that— as the 4-hour chart is where we start to see clean sequence of highs and lows— so here are the key levels. Buyers range bomb, another bomb, beautiful demand area, lots of buyers here, right? Right, so, and this is the first zone. And of course, the deepest zone is here, broken resistance that became a support, and also inner zone of buyers. So any visit close to this zone— we also have a rising supportive line here connecting the lows— any visit closer to these areas, zone 1 or 2, of course it could stop slightly higher than this zone. But these are the zones where I do anticipate the buyers to start and show their interest of pushing that further up. So what would I be paying attention to? And for example, a bullish hidden divergence. Okay, assuming the market will make this low, the indicator should create— while the market making higher lows, indicator make lower lows. That's conditions of bullish hidden divergence and the potential trend continuation. This will be the sign for me to start looking for the buys, uh, and enjoy the rally that I expect to happen based on the higher time frame analysis. Okay, so I will be looking to join on the lower time frames, in that case daily, 4-hour, not really low, it's not a day trading But the goal here is to find this pullback. Of course, we need to see it rejects, right? It's not just because if the market goes straight, there is nothing to buy. What we will want to see is a rejection. We want to see the price reaching the zone and buyers start making higher highs, higher lows, indicating that they are showing their interest again. Not just straight move down. Okay, so don't buy hope, buy facts. Very important. Uh, so that would be my trading plan on the CAD/CHF. Let me know what do you think about this one. From my point of view, this one could be a beast, absolute beast. Share with us your views in the comment section below this video. And I would like to take the opportunity and to thank you for your time watching this video. Once again, I hope you find value in it. Please hit the like button if you do. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that. And I would like to also take the opportunity and to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our full trading courses, both beginners and advanced. Real-time trading opportunities, real-time trading education, access to myself and the community, and so much more. Comprehensive media zone, trading tools, you name it, it's all there for you. Join us with the link below this video in the description. Thanks again for your time. Best to you and yours, and I'll see you soon with more. Good trading and good week.