Forex Weekly Forecast - 24 to 28 July 2023 - GBPUSD,EURAUD,AUDCHF,XAGUSD - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to the weekly forex forecast. In this video, I would like to share with you 4 interesting opportunities, uh, the way I see them. That would be the pound-dollar, euro-Aussie, Aussie-franc, and silver, which I believe all create very interesting opportunities. Before I go to the charts and start talking about all the technical conditions, let's see what are the important news we have this week. As you can see, this will be a busy week and it starts with Monday right away with a lot of very important news coming from Europe. It's all about the flash manufacturing, flash services PMI in, uh, France, Germany, uh, and, uh, then also of course in UK. Very, very busy. And, and then follow up in the US. Very busy, um, and important numbers because the services recently been increasing while the manufacturing was shrinking pretty much everywhere. And it will be very interesting to see how the numbers look like after that. And then we are going to consumer confidence in US, which is expected to be, uh, higher. CPI report in Australia that should give some light, uh, on what is expected on the next, uh, interest rate decision in Australia. And then The main event, the Federal Reserve funds rate, and follow up with the press conference. Keep in mind that according to the consensus, the expectations that the Fed will go and complete a final hike despite the fact that the CPI, the annual CPI, shrinks and reaches this about 3% in the US, the Federal Reserve Target was about two percent, and as I said, not once they will do all the required. So there is a big, big, big, big expectation in the market what will happen here. But not only what will happen with the current rate, but the tone from the Federal Reserve on what is yet to come in the second part of 2023, and of course. The odds towards the interest rate decision in 2024. That will be right after with the press, uh, conference. Then we have the rate decision in Europe, which is also a very, um, important one despite being, I would say, official— under official recession in eurozone. The central bank was very, very clear that the inflation is still there and they are not done with that. So these two are potential game changer, I would say, with with everything it has to do with these currencies. And then we have the advanced GDP. It will be on Thursday, right after the rates in euro. And keep in mind, take a look what is expected here according to consensus. Okay, shrinking economy—that's something to pay attention to. And then on Friday, well, of course, Thursday night we have also the outlook by the Bank of Japan outlook report and the monetary policy statement. Japan, and then on Friday we have the press conference in Japan, and then we have the GDP in Canada. Well, very busy week, so keep an eye on these ones. They could be what will trigger technical setups and the opportunities to follow. And now let's talk about the first pair we have for this week. That would be the pound. Dollar. As we discussed in the previous week, uh, the— as I explained there, I do not think that for the long run this pair is done, but we did expect to see some pullbacks to happen to important supportive levels before the market really goes and continues higher. So my view did not change at all about the pound-dollar. The only question that remains left here is down to where this corrective structure Can take us to. So what is important on the pound dollar? If we take a look here, what you will see that the pound dollar is right on important first, or I would say the last resistance that was broken now behave as support. But the more key levels are slightly lower than that. Okay. So the next level is here broken. Resistance that was already supported once, and then the broken resistance that now behaves as a massive support area and suggests key volume zone. Okay, so with that in mind, these are the 2 main levels I would want to pay attention to. Okay, so let's put them here and here, and of course the current one. Now let's go to the lower time frame. That's where it starts to be interesting. But before that I want to go back to my members area in the Home Trader Club and pay attention to the numbers we have on the pound-dollar. Okay, why the current scenario is expected to be a correction. So take a look on the numbers. I love to— this is the market trend snapshot, one of the tools we have in the Home Trader Club. Take a look what we have here. The months The monthly numbers are very, very, very positive. Okay, however, the 7 days and 24 hours are yet in the corrective structure. That teaches us that the longer-term bullish momentum is not yet gone. It's still there. However, we are currently under corrective structure. And with that in mind, we go back to the technical analysis and try to see where these numbers and this understanding can fit Okay, and that's exactly what we expect. We are under corrective structure with anticipation to go back to the bullish trend. Now keep in mind, I saw that all the numbers and the news expected I was talking about, that could be a great boost for technical setup, or that could then change the trend, which we will know after. Okay, but at the moment, based on the numbers and the technical levels What I would be looking at is these are the levels I showed you from the daily chart, okay? I will be looking for bullish setups right on them. So what is interesting to me right now is if we take a look on the Bollinger Bands, we currently have, uh, 2 levels here. Let me show you where the 3rd duplication level is. So here is the 3rd level, okay? We have it right here. The first Second, third level. Take a look, the third level is right next to the important supportive area. Okay, we're very, very important support on here and a volume zone that we can see. This is a 4-hour chart volume zone. Let me control that here with my indicator. Uh, this indicator I control here, it's the KTLI or Key Trading Levels based on volume profile. I want to remind you that you can download all my indicators with the links below this video. So in the description below this video, and these are very, very important levels. Now what I like here is that the current price movement happens to be in 3 waves, and while the market makes these 3 lower highs, lower lows, we start to see a slowdown condition. So ideal scenario would be something like a pullback and a final push down in the supportive area where we should get a bullish divergence created, and then the market tries to bounce back. The question that we will have to see and maybe get answers to after the Federal Reserve comes and publishes their data, right, and their decision What we will need to see here, will that be the final correction before the rally, or we will get here some bounce and then a little deeper pullback towards the key supportive zone, okay, before the trend goes and continues? This option looks very legit to me, and this is pretty much what I would be expecting to see. We have this, uh, area we just discussed. This is the next important supportive zone. I want to see the slowdown conditions here. And again, the news could boost or change the whole thing, but at the moment, that's what I would be looking at on the pound-dollar, to create the bottom here, to create this reversal sign, and to push forward. Okay, so, uh, what's that? Sorry, too many lines appeared. Okay, so, okay, once again, let's just draw it from the beginning. Key supportive area that we saw from the daily chart. Okay, we want to see the market making and completing this scenario, right? The indicator completes bullish divergence condition, and from there looking for bounce back. Okay, so this is my plan for the coming week on the pound dollar, and then we will see how the market reacts to the news And what sort of technical conditions will we get? Is it pullback and final leg to the downside before the long term continues, or will that be a significant bottom hold? There is also rising supportive line which— oops, sorry— which we can't ignore, of course, right? All these zones, huge supportive line, and if it will manage to hold that, we might see really Further bullish continuation. So I believe that a lot of things should get cleaner right after to after this week and the news. What do you think about the pound dollar? Are we going to 125 from here, or is this one going to turn around and go to new annual? Highs? Share your views in the comment section below this video. Thank you very much in advance. Of course, the next instrument I want to cover would be the EUR/AUD. But before that, I would like to ask your support and your help. If you find value in this video and other videos I upload for you in this channel, please hit this like button. Few words in the comment section below this video would be a great help, great help. Uh, this is how YouTube algorithm works, and in order for this channel to keep being relevant and bring with the important trading content, your help is needed, is very much appreciated, of course. So big thanks to all of you who take the time, hit this like button below. Also, if you are new to this channel, welcome to our amazing community. Please consider to subscribe. With the subscribe button below this video. Just remember to enable the notification so you can get notified when I upload a new content for you. And I would like to also invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you can get all that you can see on this very image here— the full access to our price action courses and trading courses for beginners and advanced, real-time trading education, and the real time trading opportunities that come in real time as they are spotted by me, uh, and of course access to the trading community, myself, and so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description, and I hope to see you with us. Going back to the EUR/AUD, this one is really interesting. So I believe that what we have on this pair at the moment is the pair trying to complete the triple cycle, which I believe it should complete very, very soon, then develop some sort of a slowdown condition while the market is making higher highs, or any sort of a double top, which is definitely a possible scenario, and then lower highs on the indicator completing bearish or negative divergence before it flips. Okay, so I believe we should see this final leg trying to go and push it right to this zone, maybe even slightly higher. We have a key level here. Take a look on all these highs, how strong they are holding. Take a look on this area. Okay, you can see here massive move down, consolidation, a little consolidation. Buyers are trying to reject and sellers continue. This is an absolutely strong zone, and I believe that as soon as it is retested, from there we're going to see the peak and the reversal. But this area should still be retested the way I see that. And here is basically what we have after making a sequence of higher highs, higher lows in this classical uptrend and making an ABCD correction. With a bullish divergence on the histogram of the MACD. This ABCD line was broken, okay, right here. Then after the breakout, we come for a retest. We start to see higher highs on the chart, and right now we got a beautiful continuation. There are no clean, strong reversal signs whatsoever, and that makes me think that this pair has its momentum towards this key zone before it will potentially, uh, go and change. Going down to the 4-hour chart, and it fits pretty much, I would say, classically. After this rally here, we got the also a little range or ABCD breakout coming for a retest. So far holding, which makes me think as long as that is the case, going back to the daily chart, right And this zone managed to hold. We can see also here big, big, big, big volume, right, area, a lot of volume. I believe as long as this zone holds, any pullback should provide us opportunity to see the pair pushing towards that key zone we saw before. Okay, so this area is really critical. As long as it managed to hold My bullish view remains on, and I believe Euro Aussie should get this done with the final rally. So what do you think? Are we going to see the previous high here around the 168, or maybe even higher all the way to 170? Or did we already see the top and this pair will do nothing more than dropping Down to 160 or even lower. Share your thoughts and your views in the comment section below this video, and thank you very much in advance, of course, for your help. Before I move to the next instruments, a big shout out and thanks to Movement Markets Broker, the broker I trade with, for supporting this channel and my community. You can learn everything about Movement Markets. And the special offer I have with them below this video in the description. You can get your access to all of my projects basically of your choice thanks to the Mogul Markets partnership. So learn everything about it with the explanation below this video in the description. The next pair is going to be the Aussie franc and it is one I love. I go back to the main media series. Take a look at the numbers. You see these numbers here? Everything is negative. But take a look how the numbers starts to shrink from a very negative bearish trend on a monthly view through decreasing momentum on a daily chart and last, of course, 24 hours. That teaches us how the momentum slows down. And connecting that to the technical signs, here is what I see on this pair. We are right next to a key— let me just close that— right to the next key demand area we have here. Okay, the market is making clean waves down, as you can see, sequence of lower highs, lower lows. Okay, and the great part here, which I start to like, is the potential bullish divergence created on the moving averages And histogram of the MACD, while the RSI could join the party. I say potential because it did not yet create a bottom and turn around, but it has very high probability to do so because of the levels I just showed. Also, if we plot Fibonacci expansion right on the ongoing waves, you would see something amazing. One of my What did I do here? Yeah, one of my favorite combinations. Let me just show it to you. Okay, here we are. Okay, triple descending cycle, which means every following leg here is at decreasing momentum, and we have a huge zone here. Okay, right On this demand zone. Okay, that's where the buyers took massive control from, right? It all connects together, and if this divergence comes in play here, we should get a massive buy opportunity for a long run. Going down to the daily chart, we can see that the pair also starts to build this long divergence here. And on the small power divergence, right? So very likely that these waves are going to complete themselves before it takes place, which makes it absolutely great sign, uh, to follow. Take a look on the 4-hour chart. Ideal scenario here— I'll explain 2 scenarios here. The ideal scenario would be to get some, uh, final lows, false breakout Okay, like fake low under higher lows on the indicator, and then with this ongoing trendline breakout, well, the market will start to make higher highs. Could be absolutely amazing long-term buy sign. So this one could take some time. It might happen in a matter of days, but it also could yet take several weeks. I show it to you right now. I'll have a follow-up on my next videos because I want you to be prepared. Bottom line, whenever it happens, in between the videos I upload or, uh, or right during the week— we cannot predict the exact time when the market makes it, right? But the levels, the demand area, the Fibonacci expansion, the divergence, everything starts to connect. And in majority of cases, such things tend to pay and pay big time. So stay tuned, pay attention to Aussie franc. I believe this one is going to build up some amazing opportunity soon. What are your thoughts about this one? Share with us in the comment section below this video. The final one is going to be the silver, which is very interesting. Of course, after massive 3 waves here we got on the monthly chart A huge bullish divergence. We got the price retraces. We make the higher highs on the chart, higher highs on the indicators, and after that, a classical condition of a zigzag: two waves up, two waves down, breakout, retest, and a hold. Great technical conditions, which as long as they last, this should be a sign of the silver. Will try to push further on. Going down to the weekly chart, and here is where it starts to be interesting. So this was the high I showed before, the trend line from the monthly chart that was broken. But the interesting part here, that this breakout happens to be in 3 weekly waves, which usually by themselves bring either ABCD before the continuation or any sort of a range, which is more logical scenario in that case, and continuation. The reason I believe that it's nothing more than a correction at the moment is because while the market making the higher highs, higher lows, indicator makes the same higher highs, higher lows. It does not have any condition of ending divergence. As you can see, higher highs everywhere are the same. MACD, it all connects to the same thing, the same logic, which makes me think we are right now in the corrective structure. As I explained before, a range is very logical scenario. So here is what we are facing at the moment. We did have 2 waves down on the daily chart which ended with the bullish divergence on the moving average of the MACD as well as the RSI. Break above this falling resistance line or trend line created the higher highs on the chart with higher highs on the indicators, creating the bullish momentum. On the 4-hour chart, we will see that this one created A sequence of higher highs, higher lows, bringing up again the trendline structure. So the classical scenario here is a pullback, ideally towards this massive, massive, massive zone. Okay, let's go to the 4-hour chart. You will see that much cleaner there. We have here a beautiful rising supportive line, broken resistance that become a support. And huge volume zone. So it's pretty wide area, okay, but a key zone to watch. The next important level would be this broken support that became a resistance and also behave as support. And remember the range I was showing before on the daily chart? It all connects. Any pullback to this zone 1 or 2 And we should be looking for these buy opportunities. So with the news, we anticipate the raise decision and the press conference and what will come next. Pay attention to this one. Of course, gold should be— stay connected. So based on your preferences, if it's gold or silver or other commodities, pay attention to them. They could really be great ones to follow. Usually what happens in such cases is the market tends to create some sort of double wave or some longer range correction here before it really creates a significant hold around the levels I just showed and makes the rally. So this is exactly what I'll be looking at. I want the market to enter the zone. Enter the zone does not mean specifically a buy, okay? Look for these setups. Usually, as I explained, the market creates some sort of ABCD or a range here and then manage to break. I believe the silver should make that happen, uh, and within a potential range that I explained before, create for us some sort of move like that before the breakout and continuation with the Higher time frame. So here is the question to you: Do you think silver will hit the level of 21 or 20 again, or will it manage to survive this pullback and go to new annual highs? Let me know what do you think about it. It will be very interesting to. Um, to hear your opinion because the views among traders are very split. Many believe that silver will go to nothing less than $30 again. Many believe that silver will crash below $20. I'm very curious to hear what do you have to say. Share with us in the comment section below this video. So that would be it for this video. Once again, I hope you find value in watching that and other content I upload for you. If you do, And if you still didn't, please hit this like button. Consider to subscribe to our channel if you are new to this community, and of course, welcome to our fantastic community. And I invite you to join us to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you get all your access to everything you can see on this very image here— all the trading courses, all the real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities, and so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. I hope to see you with us I wish you and yours all the very best and successful trading ahead. And stay tuned, there will be further updates right after the Federal Reserve cash rate decision. So thanks for your time, best to you and yours, and I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now, good trading.