Forex Weekly Forecast | 30 October 2023 | EURUSD, USDJPY, GOLD - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. In today's week, I want to share with you some very interesting trading opportunities, and I want to explain the technical analysis behind it and my trading plan. So let's begin. Before we continue, big thanks to Eightka Broker for supporting me, my community, and my channel. Below this video in the description, you can find all the available offers I have for my community with Eightka Broker. Now let's talk about the first instrument. That would be the euro dollar. So before we go on technical analysis, let's take a look on the pure numbers. I will refer to the market trend snapshot. This is one of the amazing features we have in Home Trader Club. Take a look on the euro dollar. The 1 month is slightly below 1%. The, the last 7 days and 24 days were pretty much flat. That means the sellers are slowly, slowly, slowly losing their current, uh, obvious clear grip in the bearish direction. However, these numbers do not show that the buyers are in full control. They did not twist. We don't have increasing bullish numbers. Present the buyers. Not in the 24 hours, not in the 7 days, definitely not in the months. And with that in mind, I want to go back to the weekly chart and remind you of our recent analysis. We've had these 2 waves to the upside which was blocked by a broken support. It became a resistance. And if we break it to 3 waves, it also ended with a bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD. Usually in such case, the market provides some 2 waves correction before anything else, or at least one clear move with ending signs. And I will explain what are the ending signs in a minute. So yes, we do have one leg, but the real demand area from the previous move down where the buyers took control— this was the Closest one, the one before, was here. None of them was basically tested. And if we go to the daily chart, on a daily chart, as I said, one leg on weekly chart is acceptable as long as the daily would have ending conditions. And the daily, so far, if you take a look, uh, and check this move down, it clearly breaks the trend, right? We have 3 lower highs, lower lows here, and the trend does not change. We do not have any fake lows. We do not have any flip-frollover lows— higher— lower highs to higher highs and then higher lows. Therefore, in my opinion, this whole ranging movement is nothing more than a sliding correction before one more drop will take place. With this idea in mind, we can go down to the 4-hour chart, which currently, if you take a look, attempts to break this rising supportive line. The biggest question here is, will that be enough for the current sell? And that's my answer. As long as these supply areas— let me put it in a rectangle here— as long as this supply area— why is that supply area? Because take a look how the price develops. Move down, rally, high created, low was broken, sellers in control. Previous support rejected, retested, and becomes a resistance. Another support is broken. Sellers in control. After sellers take the control, we have here range. This range makes a move down, and 2 following days in a row, the sellers rejected this area. So this is the first zone where the sellers are. Next zone, as I already mentioned, would be right here. And as long as these 2 levels hold, for me it is simply sell the rallies on the lower time frame with bearish evidences, expecting and anticipating one more low to be completed on a daily chart. And then very possibly the daily chart would go and complete the conditions of a bullish divergence when the market makes lower lows but the indicator will start making higher lows, and then we can start looking for the buys. Meanwhile, as long as these zones I just mentioned are holding, any rallies towards that with bearish evidences on the lower time frame should be considered as a sell opportunity. Let me know what do you think about the euro dollar. Will we see 103, maybe even lower than that first of all, or the euro dollar is going to 108 or 110 from here? Share your views in the comment section below. Before I continue, I would like to ask your support. If you find value in this video, please hit the like button. If you are new to our channel, welcome to our great community. Please subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that and building a proper trading plan for the coming week. So I covered the dollar yen, uh, on the previous weekly forecast where we were talking about the preparation of the sell. As I explained, I expect to see false breakout or false breakout building up before the trend flips and making lower lows and the sell starts. Let's quickly take a look how the dollar-yen, um, numbers look like. So this is a very red, uh, um, square we have here, but let's take a look on the monthly. The monthly is still bullish. But the lower starts showing the momentum of the buyers basically decreases. And exactly like with the euro dollar we saw before, these numbers are simply inverted, which means the buyers are slowly losing their grip and we should start looking for the reversal signs. What sort of reversal signs? As I showed on the euro dollar before, where we should see one more low and then bullish divergence, here we should see highs which are currently created, and bearish divergence which currently is created. So the biggest question here now, what will trigger this big sell? Let's go to the higher time frame once again quickly to remind what do we have here. So this rally, this massive rally comes to the end. It is riding more than 20 candles on the upper Bollinger Bands Putting the pressure to the downside. The last time these conditions happened were here on the first rally. Then we all remember the major correction took place. I have no doubt that eventually this will happen here as well. Besides that, this starts to build up a potential bearish divergence while the second high is establishing on the chart. So far. At least for now, the MACD, moving averages, histogram, and RSI are building lower highs, which means the bullish momentum on the second leg— on this leg— is significantly lower than the one before. That's a condition where buyers are losing their grip and sellers take the control back. So going from here, not because I plan to trade for 10 years with that, just looking for my opportunities, going to the weekly chart, and these 3 waves also starts to run to the end. So the weekly analysis together with the monthly analysis makes all this zone look like a reversal about to take place. Let's go to the daily chart and take a look what do we have here. So the daily chart, we do have The divergence. We do have false breakout, so higher highs in the chart, lower highs on the indicators basically gives the bearish divergence, negative divergence. We do have fake high attempt to make a high which pulls back down massive engulfing. So now we need to wait for the reversal signs. What are the reversal signs? After the higher highs, we should see lower highs, and then we can start looking for potential pullbacks and sells. Or at least after a fake high, to go and see, uh, 2 waves down or 3 waves down with a correction, and then break below the correction could lead for a great sell. And if we go to the 4-hour chart, that's pretty much what we will be looking for. That's a very possible scenario. Two waves down, two waves up, and a breakout. Or, as mentioned before, break below this low should trigger a daily convergence. Okay? On a four-hour chart, we also have the conditions here of the convergence. Let me just show it to you first of all between these conditions, these highs, higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the indicator. Break below this low. Could be the one that triggers that the four-hour chart sells are prepared. So that's what we will be looking for in terms of triggering the sell. Okay, could the daily go and make one more fake high? The answer is absolutely yes. Why? Because the monthly and weekly still need to establish its divergences and to complete it. So no need to rush and. Press the button on early sell because, you know, in all this rally there were a lot of sellers that tried very, very, very early, and as you can see, it didn't work out too well. So from my point of view, the conditions are there now. It's all about the setup, and the setup on my trading plan, as I explained before, fake high, twist of the momentum, the trend change, making lower lows, and then pullback, or start to see the waves to the downside, then waves to the upside as a correction, and then break below the correction should bring a sell. Let me know, what do you think about dollar-yen? Are the sellers already in control? Share your views in the comment section. Now let's talk about the gold. Very, very, very interesting opportunities building up here. As you remember, we We were—I published recently several videos there. I pointed this supply zone as a potential short-term hold to bring pullbacks before the continuation, and so did this supply. They both managed to hold for a very short time. This one only for a couple of days with a tiny pullback before the breakout, and this one. Also for three days with a small pullback for 23.6 Fibonacci and then continuation. So that's a very important thing here to to break down or to mention when when the trading plan is against higher timeframes, it always is riskier. Okay, so for those who cannot deal with the risk and carry small smaller risk. Better simply avoid and wait for longer-term opportunities. And as you remember, uh, some weeks ago I published, uh, in my analysis in the weekly forecast my anticipation that the gold will go and complete another final high, all-time high, with, uh, then monthly and weekly go and complete the bearish divergences. So as long as— and it's very sad and unfortunate, but it's important to bring it and to mention that— the war in Israel and the fear in the market that it will spread beyond that to other countries in the Middle East— Iran, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, who knows where else— the fear will put more and more pressure on the market, but mainly on the commodities. A lot of traders are treating that as a safe haven in uncertain times, and so it is expected to affect, of course, also the oil prices. If Iran would get involved, so will the oil prices. So I will not be surprised if oil will continue and skyrocket for some period. But let's talk about the gold. What happened with the gold here is that according to the monthly cycle, this high is yet to be established, and it seems it's not established yet. On the weekly chart, same story. The sequence of higher highs, higher lows maintains and continues. No change on the trend. And the most recent little corrective structure to the downside is now broken and making higher highs, which brings it to a simple buy conclusion. As long as this low holds, any pullback here is now returned directly to the higher time frame with expectation of further continuation. Technically speaking, only technically speaking, There is a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart which could eventually bring this correction. But with the trending structure in play and with the weekly, daily, monthly all lined up to the upside, these corrections should be nothing more than small corrections, exactly as we discussed recently on the small videos I prepared during the The short videos, as well as during the last, uh, weeks. Like here, small pullback, it did not deliver big one. Same here, small pullback, did not deliver big one. Okay, that's one of the price when go against the, uh, when looking for opportunities against the major trend. And same about this one, it could go and happen to be to the support or the next support. But it should not be major trend change from where buy the dips was the long-term plan and remains the long-term plan. So for those who do not like to carry these short-term sells against higher time frames, simply avoid. There is nothing wrong with avoiding the direction of the sell, but then look to Buy the dips to join this expected longer-term bullish trend for the all-time highs to be created and achieved. So that's my view on gold. What do you think? Should gold go and create all-time highs? Will we see 2100? Will we see 2200 or further to the north? Share your views in the comment section below this video. So that would be it for this weekly forecast. Once again, I hope you find value in this video, and please don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe to the channel if you are new to our channel. And welcome once again to the community. And I would like to take the opportunity and to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will enjoy access to our full trading courses, comprehensive trading media full of webinars, access to trading tools, real-time trading education, and real-time trading opportunities. Join our family with the link below this video in the description, and I hope to see you with us. I wish you and yours all the very best. Stay well, be safe, healthy, and all the very best. Thanks for your time watching this video. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now. Bye.