Forex Weekly Forecast 4 To 9 August 2019 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir Ribakov here from Traders Academy Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast for the week of 4th to the 9th, 9th of August 2019. First of all, thank you very much for your time watching this video. We have a lot of interesting things building up on the charts. And we will be going over all the opportunities in a minute. A few notes. First of all, the text format will be published as always on Monday. So just go to the blog vladimirrebakov.com or follow up the email update and, or just come back to the video and in the description Below the video, you would find this link on Monday evening. Um, to the— this is basically the forecast text format for your comfort. Just come back here and you will have all the things we discussed in the video available for you in a written text. As simple as that. So right now I'll be reviewing the trades we discussed in previous week to see what worked, what failed, what's relevant, what has to be updated, and then share the next great opportunities as I see them. For all those of you who are watching the channel for the first time, first of all, welcome to the community. I would like to invite you to subscribe to the channel. To do so, just follow the subscribe button. Below the video. Make sure to enable the ring notification button. Um, please leave your comment and feedback in the comment section and hit the like button. Your support, my motivation to keep doing that week after week. Feel free to share the video with anyone who you wish, and I would like to invite you to join my free Telegram channel and my live trading rooms. To do so, just follow the links below in the description. Now, what I'll be doing right now is forecasting my views for the coming week about the most interesting opportunities, uh, the way I see them. And in live trading rooms, we cover many more instruments, of course, Day after day. So if you are interested, join us in Trader's Academy Club. The link you can find below in the description. So let's begin. The first pair we were looking to trade was the pound versus the Aussie, expecting the corrective cycle to happen based on the daily Fibonacci level. Wanted to see a retrace down and get. Some buy setup right there. Um, so we got the retrace down, but it was sharp and deep, never provided any buy opportunities on the way. So basically this idea failed and we never got a setup to trade that. But the view still remains on the short-term corrective cycle, and I will explain. We are still under the level of 100. Just facing one more false breakout. When I say level of 100, I mean the Fibonacci expansion of the first leg move, first leg down and the second leg down. Uh, still bounce on the 100, bullish divergence, false breakout. So we are still in a corrective cycle, and corrective cycle could happen in 2 waves, or corrective cycle could be in any sort of a range. This or other way around, my view remains on the short term That we can still see that correction going for the longer term. This correction is to complete and start the next further continuation down. So basically, when, for example, this would— let's say this is rallying and coming into this area with a bearish hidden divergence. What I'm looking to do here is the 4-hour chart to form its own divergence. Bearish divergence, and then start looking for the sales options, for example. So this is definitely one to continue and follow on the list. Aussie Kiwi, the idea was to get the break above the daily trend line and to start looking for the buys. The daily trend line yet to be broken, nothing yet changed, so the view remains the same. Once we break, looking for retraces. And buy continuation unchanged. Cat franc, the view was bullish. I want to see the break of the falling trend line right here for the second wave to develop on a daily chart. So here is our trend line. The idea was once again to get the breakout, and here we can see the breakout happened, and this trade simply failed. It did not manage to hold the breakout and it did not manage to deliver the second leg as expected. So this pair is basically removed from the list right now. It's going neutral until the next opportunities will happen. Now I want to show you a very, very important thing here. How to know that your trendline breakout that you expect becomes suspicious. So first of all, this is the trend line, right? We got a breakout. Now look what happens on this breakout— a divergence on all the indicators: MACD histogram, MACD moving average. Meaning that this rally that should be a momentum rally, momentum to break through the trend line, basically shows a weakness by making a bearish divergence. This is a warning sign from the market that the breakout is weak, and better in such cases look for next opportunities to build up. So this idea failed, nothing on this pair as for now. The next one was the euro franc. Wanted to see 2 waves building up on this pair. We got the 2 waves, but they were much smaller Than I personally expected. I thought we are going for much deeper second, second leg here. And again, you heard me saying many times, the market does not care about how beautiful the lines we draw. The market care about fact. The fact is that after this small rally on the second leg, we blocked with a bearish divergence. This is a sign when the market is losing its momentum. What's next with this pair? The double cycle from the weekly, the divergence we had here broken, basically the tick to the upside. So the momentum is back to bearish. Uh, I personally am not trading sells in such case as we are next to very important level of the weekly double cycle with a still potential divergence to form. So for me, the euro franc is simply going neutral. I don't see anything, um, any good reason to go and to continue and hold this pair right now. New Zealand and Canadian, uh, we have— we are in corrective cycle. So, um, 2 options were in play: 2 waves to the upside or moving to the down, uh, going to the previous lows and then continuing its correction. Basically, the idea is we are in a corrective mode for a weekly continuation. So let me explain what do we have here once again. According to the weekly, this is a triple cycle to the downside. This is a double wave correction. After it was broken, the idea is sell the rallies. Right now it is developing and developing pretty good second leg until we will get any signs against The momentum is bearish. So right now on a daily chart, the expectations, uh, one of the following: 1, 2, or the ranging movement. And this is what happens. So sell the rallies would remain, uh, the plan on go— the ongoing plan for the New Zealand and Canadian. For all those of you who are involved in sales already, um, keep it going. Nothing else to say. Here we go. This is the idea. Okay, so the seller rallies could take us back to the top or smaller retraces and then sells. Um, but the pressure remains bearish. Now there is a very important thing to pay attention to. Uh, first of all, the news for this week, the unemployment change and unemployment rate in New Zealand, but mainly the cash rate that they expect to cut the cash rate in New Zealand on Tuesday by 25 basic points or 25%. And remember, it's never only about the cut, it's a lot about the statement to follow and the press conference, any hint for further decisions. So a lot of, um, important events from New Zealand for this week have a clear view For this one. All right, let's continue. Next one on the list we have is the dollar yen. Dollar yen, I wanted to see two waves building up on a daily, four-hour chart to complete its divergence approximately 109.40, 109.50 level, and then break above the rising trend line and move to the downside. So let's take a look what happens here. We got the two waves, took us exactly to the level we wanted, completed the bearish divergence, and a four-hour chart did exactly what we wanted to see. Here we go. Break above the rising trend line, and you can see where we stand right now. Two hundred points plus to the downside. The plan worked simply, perfectly. Euro Canadian is the next one. The idea was and remains sell the rallies. For this pair, nothing changed here. Any short-term pullbacks are acceptable. The idea remains bearish. My point of view: sell the rallies unchanged. Euro versus the dollar. The view was bearish. I was looking to see the area 110 reached, and if we break through, then 105. So as for now, the euro dollar reached. The 110 zone right here, and it's building up some sort of a bullish divergence. I think sell the rallies is still the plan for this one. There are no reversal signs, so personally I would be doing exactly that. Can we see any sort of rallies? Yep, we can see it's going in one wave, making some hidden divergence and trend continuation. Or we can simply get it into waves and looking to sell the rallies further on. What level should we be careful about? The 61.8. If we cross above it and hold above it, it would be suspicious sign right here. Okay, so if we cross above that to hold, then you go neutral on the bearish view. Meanwhile, The bearish pressure was and remains on, with expectation for further move down. Pound New Zealandian, like the pound versus the Australian before, holding the bottom of the range. The idea was get the retrace and corrective cycle. Exactly like with the pound versus the Aussie, the move was straight, never provide the buy opportunity yet. However, the daily divergence still holds, so my view remains same exactly, looking for buy retraces in a bullish corrective cycle. Bullish corrective cycle could provide us that still the 2 waves, or just make it dense in a range for a while. These are other way around. The idea was and remains looking for buy setup on the retraces. And before we go to the commodities, a few new opportunities on the list. First of all, the pound-dollar broke through the level I was waiting to see what will happen here. Will that be a fake breakout or a real one? It is a real one. There is no divergence building up yet, nowhere. The way it looks right now, the pound-dollar could aim towards 120 or lower. So from my point of view, where this was the angle of the move, then it's getting more impulsive. The idea is to sell the rallies. I have a bearish view on this one, at least for a short-term movement. Here we have a possibility for a long drive towards 0.95. I'm doubtful we will. Just wanted you to see that this is a brutal possibility for this one. And something that is definitely more realistic is this cycle that we have— no, here— that we have on the monthly with the Weekly duplication could bring us easily towards these areas. So 120 would be the psychological level. We might see that going all the way down to 115 or lower. So pound dollar, sell the rallies is the plan for this one. And let's move on. Next one on the list would be the CAD versus the yen. So here is what's happening with this pair. Structure of triple double comes in play, triple double, and it is breaking down. The way I see that, we are developing this next cycle. This is a structure of a continuation. We have the psychological 80 and possibly all the way lower to 90, nothing against here. So from my point of view, it's sell the rallies for the CAD versus the yen. My view remains bearish, becomes bearish, sorry, with the breakout. Euro versus the yen. Now this one had an amazing triple cycle at the beginning of the week with a classical obvious opportunity for some buys. Never managed to gain a real momentum crossing below the last low, making the bigger waves to continue. The way it looks right now, we do have the 118 to pay attention to, but if we cross through, which easily could happen, next critical zone would be around here. We also still need to pay attention to this gapping area, but the pressure is bearish. So from my point of view, at least on the coming period, the— and as long as there are no signs against, as there are no— and there are no reversals in play as well. So from my point of view, EURJPY is sell. The rally's planned. Uh, the next one on the list would be the New Zealandian franc, another interesting opportunity, and also the New Zealand dollar. I'll talk about that. So what do we have here? Triple double structure that comes from the weekly chart, making this as the next developing leg, and this is what happens on the daily chart pretty much Same story. Here we go. Triple double in play by itself. The trend line was broken and the continuation is gaining. We have the levels marked here a lot, but a lot of potential to go. If we break through here, then the next level could be all the way down to 60. 162. Very, very good-looking momentum. I would be looking for sell the rallies opportunities. Anything like that definitely could be a good one to follow up. Pay attention to the news to be published this week in New Zealand, especially the rate cut and the press conference to follow. And the last one from the Forex View is the New Zealand versus the dollar. Which basically develops very likely this two waves correction, so it could take us below 0.60 for the longer run. This is what we are facing on this pair: one, two, possibly all the way down here. And on the lower time frame, daily chart. This pretty much provided us like the New Zealandian franc, this kind of a structure here. Trying, trying to break through with all the levels in play. It looks very good on the bearish direction. We continued continuously hold the lower highs, lower lows despite short-term rallies. So my view remains still bearish, and I think there is more to come and go. For the sell here. On the shorter view, there are some sort of possible retraces building up, retraces probabilities building up here, so we can see some corrections which later on I'll be looking and aiming to sell. Now we are back to the commodities. Gold, the idea was retraces and buys. So far So good. Here we are, little retraces and buys. I still think gold has a potential to create new highs. Pretty much same exactly with the silver, retraces and buys. So from my point of view, it's still on, still expecting a new high. Nothing new in terms of quantities As for now, and there are a few more things on the list. First of all, let's talk about the cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, a few levels were in our attention: the 9,000 and slightly lower, and if it breaks, then 7,000. So what happened here was a hold. Let's take a look here. BTC. USD. What happened here was the hold of $9,000 level, and basically what happens since was this trend line, uh, that was broken. Of course, you can see that on the 4-hour chart with the last trend line followed with the bullish divergence. So Bitcoin is rallying and paying. So that's pretty much it. Once this would make the divergence It would be a great place to get a cash out and go neutral. The next one on the list was the Ripple, where I wanted to see the daily trendline breaking. And let's take a look here. And this is what we are facing. So the trendline was broken, but no momentum gained. We're stuck in the same zone. Game over for now, the way it looks right now. There is a very healthy possibility we're gonna see a new low for a divergence to complete and then looking for the buys. So just we'll follow up during the week. Of course, we'll update in the live trading rooms if it becomes in play. As for now, Ripple will remove, be removed from the list. Now, few interesting things happening on the indices. We have the Federal Reserve cutting the rates. By 25 points, not hinting for clear reactions on the next decisions. And this is a direct impact on this massive engulfing coming in play in this double cycle on the weekly on NASDAQ. It's the same with NASDAQ, it's the same with S&P. Beautiful engulfing on the play, holding the psychological level. Daily chart completing false breakouts with the convergence principle of lower lows. So my personal view is as long as the highs hold, it's a sell opportunity and it's same everywhere. Sorry, we got a false breakout and we are getting the lower lows. So sell the rallies would be my plan with the indices here. They look simply good. German DAX also is back in play. Still this false breakout from the weekly developing to the downside as its correction. Nothing against on the daily at that moment, so the pressure would remain bearish. The DAX is also back in in the bearish direction play. And 2 stocks which I find interesting, one of them was discussed in the live trading room this, this week, is Louis Vuitton. You see it's a big cycle here in play and smaller cycle here in play, ending up with a bearish divergence, expecting corrective cycle. Daily provided its own verification with the divergence, and the 4-hour was this that provided the false breakouts and, um, the continuous divergence. So, uh, after we got this slow sell the rallies is the plan and Louis Vuitton goes good the way it looks right now in the cycle, I would expect to see a deeper further correction down. And another one on the list also from the stocks is Visa. Triple cycle on The long weekly chart, of course, could be broken into any shorter view as a special cycle. It could be marked any way around here, doesn't really change the, the view here. Also, the monthly, you can see slowing down with the continuing divergence. Monthly could even be interpreted as a double with this slowing divergence. And the daily also pay attention to the weekly psychological zone of this resistance around the round of 180, slightly higher, and a massive engulfing. Daily chart is the one that provides another false breakout and making the lower lows. So I would not be surprised if Visa starts to build up sell opportunity for a corrective cycle. So plenty of opportunities, as you can see, the market provides us. August volumes could go lower, but with everything happening around the world right now, it does not look like the volumes are going lower. They might be even Massively. That's pretty much it for all the Canadian followers and for all the Canadian friends in the community. Happy long weekend. Enjoy your little break. And for all the rest, I wish you a wonderful trading week. Thank you very much for your time watching this video. And once again, I would I'd like to invite you to the live trading rooms and to enjoy live trading room on daily basis with us in the Traders Academy Club and trading detailed trading reports with all the opportunities as they appear. To join our family, just follow the link below in the description, and I'm looking forward seeing you with us there. Thank you very much once again for your time. I wish you a wonderful weekend. And trading week to come. Yours, Vladimir Ribakov, Traders Academy Club. Ciao for now.