Forex Weekly Forecast | 5 November 2023 | GBPJPY, NZDJPY, EURUSD, GBPCAD - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to my weekly Forex forecast. This is the first weekly forecast for November 2023, and it's hard to believe, but 2023 is coming to its end. And with that being said, after the most recent Federal Reserve Um, speech and rate decision, maybe, or— but especially by the way that the market reacts, there is a feeling in the market that even if the Fed will go and make one more hike, the Fed will basically reach, if you still didn't, this very top barrier which they would not be able to pass beyond. And from there, the next step, as the market anticipates, somewhere in 2024, uh, the Fed will start talking about decreasing the rates. And therefore the reaction we saw this market. Also the recent news we saw this week, non-farm payroll on Friday, showing that the job market very slowly but slowing down, exactly what the Fed wanted to see. And with all that in mind, the market got sort of a new boost and made impressive anti-dollar movements. So in this video, I want to talk about several opportunities that I found I want to share with you, and I share with you the analysis behind it, the technical analysis behind it, and my trading plan. Okay, um, so yeah, let's not waste time, let's begin. There are many things to talk about. Here is the first pair. Before we start with the pound yen, which will be the first pair, I would like to take the opportunity and to say big thanks to Eightka Broker for supporting me, my channel, and my community. And to enjoy the special offers I have together with them, please check in the description below this video. You will find there all the available offers. So now let's talk about the pound yen. Many traders were asking me recently, what do I expect to see from this one? And until the last Wednesday, Thursday, Friday this week, I was— let me just show it to you. I was under the impression that as long as we hold this zone, we should be seeing the market making pushback and drop down, which did happen. Very limited. It didn't never manage to go and to keep that beyond the previous low. And after the things changed with the Federal Reserve speech and then the nonfarm payrolls, pound yen makes the rally. So it's time to say aha, okay, maybe something is happening on the long term. And that's why I'll go to the higher time frame. Let's put the a simple analysis here. What do we have in terms of long-term trends? So we did have a major low down, um, early, uh, 2011, then a top, then another low we achieved here. But so far it's higher lows. We do not have any higher highs yet, but the higher lows hint that it's either going to complete these 2 waves, or at least it will be in some sort of a range. And with all that in mind, I believe that for a longer run, the pound yen now has some legit room to go and try to achieve. And also analyzing the supply areas of the previous trend, we can see that we do have here clear strong zone of sellers, and so does here. So for a long term, pound yen could go and try to skyrocket towards 200 level. Well, we're not going to trade that, at least not the plan for now, for so many months or years. But let's go down to the lower time frame and break it down, its behavior. So the first major leg we saw here— pardon, that's not what I wanted to draw. The first major leg we saw here Basically completed these waves and then made a correction, cleaned this low and all that happened at the end of 2022. And then it starts to go and make these probably final 3 waves of this cycle. Now if we plot Fibonacci expansion on that very move, we will see that the 161.8 meets us exactly where we can see here. Monthly volume profile based zone, a very strong key zone. The first time we saw this one is with holding and rejected. Same happened here. So now the, the fact that we don't have any trend change could hint that the market will try to break it and go and actually complete the rally towards the 161.8, okay, which is here. And that's very important, uh, level which is very possibly will try to be achieved. When we go to the lower time frame, here is another supporting factor of that. Okay, on a daily chart we also have clean trending structure, clean corrective structure. And what I like to see in that sense is that this low was not broken and we never managed to get a sequence of lower highs, lower lows. It was nothing more than just a pull back the bottom line when this low was holding. And now we can see that this volume profile-based support area, the balance zone here, was holding also. So the assumption here is the buyers are accumulating their purchases, their buyer, uh, positions, and will push that forward until a new high will eventually be reached. So taking that analysis, going to the, to the lower time frame to find the opportunity, we can start to see that the first leg up was completing its zigzag. Now, now it's broken, so very likely to assume the next legs are going to be basically or 3 higher highs, higher lows with correction and continuation, or another zigzag by itself, something like that, and then continuation. So for me, as long as these lows manage to hold, I call it invalidation zone. Yeah, any pullbacks here should be considered as a buy opportunity. Let me know what do you think about the pound yen. Will we see 190, then 193 first of all, or do you think it was just a fake rally and the pair is going down to 180 and lower? Share with us in the comment section. The next instrument would be the New Zealand yen, another very, very, very interesting opportunity the way I see that. But before I talk about the charts, let's see quickly on the numbers. First of all, the pound yen, which we didn't see before. Take a look on the market trend snapshot we have in Home Trader Club. Take a look at the numbers. Pound yen monthly Around two percent on the positive, same like the seven days. That's very strong synchronized numbers, and that's why buy the dips is the plan there. Same exactly about the New Zealand yen, even with bigger numbers. One month slightly below one point five percent. The seven days, the last seven days is close to three percent. Absolutely huge rally, strong momentum, which hints the same look to join the buyers. Now let's take a look how all that looks like on. The chart. So New Zealand yen has a very interesting, I would say, uh, phenomena here, or some conditions. Despite of having several divergences on their own, between the big ones, right, and between the small ones, when the market making higher highs but indicator starts to indicate lower highs, despite of all that, the market never broke the structure of higher lows and higher highs. Take a look how it maintains that higher highs, higher lows, higher highs, higher lows. And same here, it never managed to change that. Even when it attempted to make the first 2 waves, it never went beyond the previous low. So with that in mind, that's a very strong, still ongoing bullish trend. However, very possible that this one would come to an end after making that final push upside and make completing here. Like, we do start to see, uh, here fake highs, okay? Which means that eventually if the sellers will manage to take the control, we will have the fake highs and then lower lows. But it didn't yet happen, which makes me think this false break was completed. One more is coming before the market will decide what's coming next. And with that idea in mind, going down to the daily chart, here is a very interesting fact. We did have these 3 waves upside. These 3 waves upside, trending, classical trending structure, made higher highs on the chart, higher highs on the indicator. There were no opposite signs. After that, here came— here comes the weekly divergence we saw before, okay, which also seen on the daily, but it's a weekly one. But the daily chart never managed to complete its 3 waves. It did have here some sort of a double top, which also never managed to complete a clean reversal. And with especially after the recent week, because during the week I was looking for ABCD personally and sell the breakout, which clearly didn't happen. And we can see it never managed to make the ABCD setup. But now the question is. Okay, if their sellers are not showing their interest, maybe the buyers have more to offer. And that's exactly what I expect if that was the case of higher highs, higher lows. One final high very likely and possibly to be created until the daily will complete its bearish divergence. Okay, which means we do need to see one more high. Dropping down to the 4-hour chart, and here are some important levels. Broken resistance becomes and acts as the support right now, and same about the previously— the, the low of the demand and the broken resistance that again acts as a support. As long as these levels hold, any pullbacks here should provide us further continuation until a new high Would be reached and completed. Speaking about the levels, the levels show approximately around the 92, 93, maybe even beyond that. But at least I would expect it to go and to clean or get a new high above the previous daily high. That gives a great opportunity to enjoy the final rally. What do you think about New Zealand yen? Should we see 92, 93, maybe more, maybe beyond these levels? Or again, like in case of the pound yen, was it fake and we will go beyond 85 from here? Share with us in the comment section below this video. And before I continue, I would like to ask your support. If you find value in this video and you appreciate the work, please hit this like button. Few words in the comment section would make a great help. This is how all the YouTube thing works. So your help is very much needed, appreciated, and of course, thank you very much in advance for taking the time and helping out. Also, I want to invite you, if you are new to this channel, please subscribe to the channel. Just remember to enable the notification so you know when there is new content available for you, and feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that. Once again, thank you very much in advance. for taking the time and help. So let's start with the numbers. Take a look how everything flips in months, slightly below 1%. Yes, not bullish in the control yet, but the last 7 days, 1.51%. The last 24 hours, 1.11%. Strong numbers on the euro dollar. Now, in the previous week when I shared my analysis, I was showing this supply area, and as I said There, as long as this area holds, rallies should be sold. And we saw them one week before, great, uh, drop down this week, great drop down before. Uh, basically what happened is, again, with the Federal Reserve, uh, switching their, uh, sort of, uh, maybe hawkish, uh, speeches, right? What happened with the euro dollar is We completed 2 waves up, 2 waves down, and this was broken, which brings a beautiful bullish power. And the biggest question now would be, is that enough to make it fly from here? So at the moment, I still have my doubts. The trending structure ideally should be something like that before the buyers take control, or at least to move inside some sort of a range for a while. Regardless, with the current supply zone which was controlled by the sellers being broken, it brings the possibility that we're going up again to the next supply level which stands here and here where the sellers are. So let's go down to the daily chart once again and let's break it down. So what we saw on a daily chart after the 20 candles ride on the lower Bollinger Bands, exactly like it has happened here, uh, the massive rally. Okay, and the interesting part right now is that we on a daily chart we do see a sequence of higher highs, higher lows, which stands for a bullish trending structure. So the previous supply zone here Was not really respected. Also broken support; it was resistance, and the same that this candle, as long as it holds, represents strong buyers in its play. So the way I see that is basically that the euro dollar is preparing the ground for the next rally to the next key levels. We have a broken support, actually resistance here, but also zone of sellers. At these points. Sellers created the high end to control. Sellers created highs to control. And same thing here. So that would be a key level. You can also see this level, a balanced level, from the volume profile based— you can see this cloud based on the KTLI indicator. Okay, so with that in mind, as I presented on the 4-hour chart, we did have a zigzag, 2 waves up, 2 waves down breakout. Which the ideal should bring three waves now on the daily chart if the market would actually make it happen. So for me, the idea here is as long as that's the case, buy the dips becomes the plan. And as long as this low holds, that this is the low of invalidation. As long as it holds and the prices. Above the structure and above the volume profile zone, for me, buy the dips on the euro dollar. Heading and aiming the mentioned levels is the plan here. And very important levels, of course, broken resistances that are now acting as support on the way, right? All that are very important level, and of course the zone here of the volume profile zone. Volume profile. So these are the key levels. Any drops, drop towards these areas, and it's good to start looking for bullish evidences for further continuation upside. And here is a question for you: what will be next, breakdown below 105 or reaching the 109, 110 on the euro dollar? Share with us in the comment section. The final one for this video would be the pound Canadian, which is approaching to very interesting levels. Let's take a look how it looks like on the chart. So before we start with the analysis, it's important to say that according to numbers, as we can see, the buyers are yet in control. This will be one of these cases where the numbers and the charts would basically create some sort of conflict, and I'll show you what should happen on the chart before we say, aha, now the sellers are in control. Because if that does not happen on the chart, these numbers do not lie. These numbers belong to the buyers. So let's take a look on the chart what does happen here on the pound CAD. We did have 3 waves. In the majority of cases, we are facing 2 waves correction afterwards, or at least some sort of a range before a major breakout takes place. And with that idea exactly in mind, take a look on this massive volume profile based zone that we are approaching to right now. I believe getting to this zone should bring the pressure on the buyers and sellers could go and reject unless it's short term or it's a second leg of the weekly correction. I don't know to say yet. But it's definitely level I would like to pay attention to. And here is what coming next on the daily chart. After make breaking this low, this high becomes a zone of sellers. Okay, you remember it corresponds to the weekly levels we saw before. And take a look what happens here in terms of sellers. Okay, sellers took the control, then little range here with and decisive candles. All that puts the pressure on the bullish direction, and that's why I believe that as long as this zone holds, the pound CAD has the possibility to break it down and make final move down. So here is what I want to see right now. The pair is making this sort of correction of these kind of, uh, 2 waves here, which I personally like to see. It's also retesting the previously broken support that now acts as a resistance going down to the— so first of all, based on the daily chart, I want this to be broken. If it breaks down, then sell the rallies becomes the plan. And going down to the 4-hour chart, this is what I like to see, and it has to happen yet Because as I just showed you before, uh, the numbers are clearly with the buyers yet, right? So it has to break down this mini channel it's moving in. Now in terms of the waves, let me just enlarge the MACD so you can see that we do have here ongoing potential divergence, lower highs, and this potentially also to create the lower highs. So what we want to see here is the price going and breaking these 2 lows, okay? While the second low is more important as it also corresponds the volume profile. So break below this level should be a great opportunity to go and look to sell the rubies. It might happen this week, it might happen in the coming weeks. I presented to you right now As the levels are very, very, very important. And for those who don't want to trade the longer term, no problem. Just mark the zone of the sellers we were talking about, right? And you can see that also here on the monthly chart. Dropping down to the 4-hour chart and you will see— just show it to you— how it all works out together, right? So if we go— it simply goes here and creates slowdown conditions, right, with bearish evidences and bearish divergence. Goes and basically market making higher highs, indicator making lower highs. Fantastic zone looking for short-term opportunities towards this major balance zone if you are not interested in the longer term but only on the shorter term. Opportunities towards the zone. Fantastic. That's your key levels. What we just saw: the classical supply zone from the daily chart, and the broken support now acts as resistance, and the key levels on the weekly chart. Okay, the last time weekly level was retested, we saw a major drop. Before that, a daily level was Retested and major rally. I believe that if we get to that zone close to the weekly levels and the previous previously extended supplies from daily chart, this should be a classical short-term opportunity. So that would be it for this video. I would like to take the time and to thank you for watching this video. As always, I hope you find value in it and you find it interesting. And if you do, please don't forget the like button. And also, once again, I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our full trading courses, real-time education, real-time trading opportunities, access to the community, to myself, to the Media Zone, and all the other trading tools, and so, so, so much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description. And once again, thanks for your time. Best to you and yours. I wish you good trading and successful trading months ahead. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.