Forex Weekly Forecast | 9 to 13 October 2023 | GBPUSD,OIL (WTI),DAX - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hey, hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. In today's video, I would like to share with you 3 great opportunities the way I see them, and I want to explain all the technical conditions why do I find them so interesting? I will be talking about the pound-dollar, the oil, and the DAX. 3 opportunities which I believe are here to deliver. Ready? Let's begin. So the very first instrument I would like to share with you would be the pound-dollar. The pound-dollar has absolutely classical conditions, uh, what I love to call synchronization from the higher time frame to the lower time frame. But before we actually go and talk about the, the chart, let's take a look on the numbers here we have. Okay, so what you see here, that's the market trend snapshot, one of the features we have in Home Trader Club for our members. Take a look on the numbers here. 1 month is very negative, uh, change, close to -3%, while the last week is slightly changing, especially after today, Friday, where we got the non-farm payroll report in the 24 hours. But the month is very negative. Usually this is a sign that there should be some sort of a pullback before the market will try to go back to the main, um, direction, which is clearly seen by these monthly numbers here to the downside. So let's take a look on the chart. Here is what we have here starting from the weekly chart. What happened with the pound-dollar? We got one Very strong push to the upside, correction, second strong push to the upside, then completed a bearish divergence between higher highs on the chart and lower highs on the histogram. And all that happened to be here around the key resistance zone. Since then, pound dollar is managed— managing to make the first push to the downside. Now Even though in my view I do anticipate the pound dollar eventually build up a long-term buy, something like that, I do think that we should first of all complete this correction. And the way I believe it should be done is, if we go back to the weekly chart, is by completing here some 2 waves to the downside, or at least some sort of consolidation as a range here before the continuation lower. Another possible scenario, it's less common but could happen, is that we will go to retest this demand area we have here straight, clean this zone, and from there the buyers will take control. It's again a bit less common, uh, Price movement, but definitely possible scenario. So with the bottom line here is that I am not sure that the bearish momentum is over. And if we go to the daily chart, we can see that we do have sequence of lower highs, lower lows, which by itself hints very possibly it's not over. So personally, I am after sell the rallies on the short term. These rallies are very welcome. We were riding on the lower part of the Bollinger Band, so going to the upper Bollinger Band makes absolute sense, like it happened to be in these places. You can see before trend continued, and that's pretty much what I wouldn't expect to see the pound dollar pushing back. We have some very important levels. First of all, based on the KTLI indicator, volume profile indicator, we have these. Massive weekly volume zone. Besides that, these 2 small candles— let me just remove this for a second so you can see that— small candles before the next move down is a great zone where the money was, um, building the positions, right? The sellers were building the positions. So this is the first important zone And the next one, broken support now acts as a resistance. As the pound dollar enters there, this would be a classical opportunity to start looking for the sell. In rare cases, in rare cases, it could go and exceed the move. If it does, pay attention to these important swing highs on the way in case it rallies a bit beyond that and from there further sells. So going down to the 4-hour chart, take a look what actually is happening currently. Uh, the— after the move down, we got a bullish divergence. Lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the moving averages of the MACD and the RSI by itself, usually as a sign of a correction. Correction could be as a 2-wave sign or deep range here. Regardless, on the short term buy these dips could go and be an opportunity. Aggressive one, yes, as it's against higher time frame, but could also be something to consider during the week. Um, and from the mentioned zone, I would be looking for bearish signs and to go with the sell. Keep in mind that this week we had also 2 very important Um, data or news released related to the job market. The JOLTS opening positions was surprisingly good, and so does the non-farm payroll. These numbers are likely to put more pressure on the Fed to keep their rates high, or maybe even hike one or two more times. With that in mind, more strength of the US dollar for the longer run or medium term, you know, um, plus the technical signs could be great combination. So that's my view on the pound dollar. Let me know what do you think about this one. Share with us in the comment section. And before I move to the next one, which would be the oil, I would like to take the opportunity to ask your help. And to support my work and my channel. If you find value in this video, please hit this like button. A few words in the comment section would be a fantastic help. Thank you very much in advance, of course, and feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that. Um, so thanks in advance for all your help, and now let's move forward to the oil. So here is what we have on oil and the weekly chart. 3 bearish way completed. And usually what happens next is ABCD correction or some sort of consolidation or a range. With that in mind, my plan here on oil is buy the dips. Taking it from here to the daily chart, and here is what we do see there, okay? Structure of 3 higher highs, higher lows. Without any ending conditions. Market is making higher highs, indicator making higher highs. It's classical synchronization. Usually these are conditions that after a pullback we should see bullish continuation upside, and that's what I have in my mind. So we have a rising supportive line, we have several very important demand areas on the way, buyers in control, buyers in control. Broken resistance now acts as support, and in the previous downtrend, the buyers were in control here as well. So if we merge these levels together, that's the ideal zone for oil. The closer we get there, uh, we probably will start to see bullish pressure. What other thing we want to pay attention to is higher lows on the chart versus lower lows on the indicator to create a hidden or inverted divergence to put the pressure on the buyers here to push the price upside again. And from here, let's drop to the 4-hour chart, take a look what happens here. We start to see conditions on, uh, the Bollinger Band where we got over than 20 candles, right? Another classical technical sign that shows that the buyers are very likely to start and put their pressure from here, at least to the opposite Bollinger Band. Last time it happened in the, the recent uptrend was here where we got the bounce, then another move down and completed the divergence, and then a major rally took place. So With that in mind, I do expect oil to go and complete something like that to the key levels we discussed and saw before. I will be after bullish divergence where the market makes lower lows but indicator starts to make higher lows, and together with the daily levels and the bullish hidden divergence explained there, I believe that oil should go and provide a classical buy opportunity on the coming week, maybe weeks. Definitely pay attention to this one. So that's my view on oil. What do you think about this one? Will we see oil at $75 first, or it will, uh, comfortably create a low around the $80, maybe slightly lower, and bounce back to $85 or $90? Share with us your views in the comment section. And also, if you are new to this channel, don't forget to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. Just a request, don't forget to enable the notification so you know when there is new content available for you. Let's move to the next one, and that would be the DAX. DAX has a classical condition for a potential major reversal to already in play or building up. At the end of these major waves we got on DAX, there is a beautiful strong bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD. In such cases, most of the times the market makes the retrace. Sometimes it makes like one final attempt with another lower high before the major move down. But with the bearish divergence coming in place and 3 following months, the market is making a push to the downside on the monthly chart. And on the weekly chart, where we also got this bearish divergence— lower, just make it cleaner a bit— higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on all the indicators. We can clearly see that the DAX is reacting accordingly. And that's the sign that I like the most, is the fact that we do have lower lows on the chart right now together with the indicator on a weekly chart. Taking that to the daily chart to try and to see how does that support, and the answer is pretty classical. After the bullish trend, and when the market is now making the lower lows on the chart, we can start to see structure of lower highs, lower lows. We do not have any ending conditions. The market price and indicators are in full synchronization, which makes me think that bearish move is not over. And if the analysis is correct, I expect the DAX to go and retest. The next key levels. So we have the broken support that now acts as a resistance. We have these spikes where the sellers recently took control, and the previous swing highs in play here where the sellers really rejected the buyer's attempt to push the price upside. And of course, the major volume profile-based zone, as you can see here. Uh, besides that, we have— let me just remove it for a second— we have the Bollinger Band duplication level for after the breakout. And duplicated strong supportive zone from duplication 1 to duplication 2, key zone where we could see short-term bounces taking place. Before continuation. And with that in mind, going down to the 4-hour chart to trying to find technical setups— remember the pound-dollar we saw at the beginning with its bullish divergence? So same here, I would anticipate to see some corrective structure like ABCD in a probably bigger scale, or some sort of range movement before continuation down. So what I want to see is the price reaching the zone of broken support that now acts as the resistance. If the price goes beyond this level, which could happen, we have the next key zone in place where sellers rejected many times. And if we reach this zone again The next sell could be right from there. So for me, on a longer term, it is sell the rallies from the key levels. Of course, I want to see clear bearish evidences for a sell, not just sell a level because I hope for good. I want to see the level respected, rejected, holding, and sellers coming back in the game and pushing to the downside. Uh, in a shorter, more aggressive way, exactly like explained on the pound-dollar before, we could see actually a short-term reversal, and this could become some tradable short-term setups on the DAX. So that's my view on DAX. Let me know what do you think about this one in the comment section below this video. And now I would like to take the opportunity to thank you for your time watching this video. I hope you do find value in this one, and if you do, don't forget to like the video with the like button below. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can get any benefit by watching that. I also want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access exactly as you can see on this very image to our full trading courses, both for beginners and advanced, real-time trading opportunities, real-time trading education, access to the community— myself, my team, and other veteran traders— and so much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description. Meanwhile, thanks again for your time. Best to you and yours, and I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now and good trading.