Vladimir Ribakov breaks down technical setups for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and gold for the week of April 20-24. He sees bearish divergence and volume-profile zones signaling downside for the euro and pound, USD/CAD selling near 1.38-1.3850, and gold under pressure from a falling resistance channel.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. So is the war over? Lots of questions, lots of doubts, lots of concerns still ahead of us, but judging the latest tweets and the latest news coming from the Middle East, the ceasefire, um, expanded, the Hormuz Strait would be opened Which affects the market, affects the— brings some optimism, brings some new excitement to the market, brings some new movements to the market. And how will that affect the coming week or weeks? Let's take a look on the charts. But before the charts, I would like to remind you that we teamed up for you, for our community, with one of the top leading brokers in our industry, AvaTrade. What does it mean to you? You can get absolutely unlimited access to Home Trader Club and all of our projects, the trading strategies, the marketplace, the private sessions. And the most important for many traders, the trade copier. Follow the link below this video in the description. Join AvaTrade. Contact me in Telegram. The link is below in the description again. Let's move forward. So the euro dollar last week we were talking about this as a key zone where our anticipation was the euro reaches this zone and from there starts some correction to the downside. My view did not change. The levels exactly, uh, retesting exactly as we wanted to see. Let's take a look on the daily chart. This high is cleaned, retested. This high is still holding. This high is still holding. So from my point of view, we are in a key zone where the euro dollar is very likely to push to the downside. Another very interesting fact here is that the 4-hour chart developed kind of 3 beautiful waves from my point of view. Usually that's a sign that we are heading to a corrective movement before the market will decide what's coming next. So the way I see that, these fake peaks one after another that the market created hint that we should see the EUR/USD pushing down. I believe the euro is heading back to inside this range, maybe even beyond that. There is a massive Volume profile-based balance zone and that area together with this rising trend line, there is a good chance we're gonna see the euro pushing even down to there. So the way I see that, as long as the daily supply levels hold, I am bearish on the euro. And from there, good chances the buyers will try to take control again, but a lot of things will depend at that time If and when happens, what will the Fed do? Will the Fed be actually able to cut the rates following all the recent events? Time will tell. Gonna be interesting. What do you think about the euro? Let me know in the comments. Pound-dollar, same story like the euro. Our anticipation was that we will see the pair pushing towards this zone where from we should be able to see the sellers taking the control. So right now that's pretty much following one-to-one everything that happens with the euro dollar. And I do not think the bullish run is over. I do think though that after these 3 waves, especially with slowing down RSI— look what happens here while the market makes the higher highs, RSI makes lower highs. Guess what it is? Bearish divergence. Usually it is a sign that we are, uh, in front of a corrective move or at least some sort of a pullback. Which usually brings either ABCD, some sort of a range, and in rare cases one straight move down just before the continuation to the upside. So similar to the euro, I believe the pound dollar is heading back to this range. There is also massive volume profile balance on here, as you can see if we go. Go back on the whole trend, this area would be even cleaner, as you can see here. So from my point of view, uh, short-term bearish, longer term afterwards looking for the buys. Next one is dollar CAD, which develops very interesting condition here. 3 lower highs, lower lows currently. Beautiful bearish control. Nothing here looks like it's about to stop. This drop. So from my point of view, retraces to the upside and looking for the sell. Now here is a very interesting thing happening here. This is the second time the dollar CAD is riding on the lower part of the Bollinger Band. Last time it happened, we got a pullback towards the upper band. In rare cases, it could ride a bit longer and then make the correction. Regardless, for me, this is sell the rallies. What are the key levels where we should be looking for that to happen? We have this range. Let's put it as a horizontal zone here. We have this range for the supply, this range for the supply that creates a fantastic zone. So rallies towards there, looking for the sell. If it climbs slightly higher, We have the next key volume profile zone around the 138, 138.50. Also this little range before the sellers took control. These are the 2 major levels where and if retested, I would be looking for the sell. And that brings me to the gold. Last week we discussed about the falling resistance line within this beautiful channel and this zone that we have here as a supply. The closer we get to this zone, the stronger the pressure to start looking for the sell. And from my point of view, the way that the gold develops with this bearish divergence hints that we are after the sell. So a couple of zones to pay attention to. The first one, the mini one, mini zone I call that, is right here in this range before the sellers took the control. And the next one is slightly higher here where the sellers again took the control. So I believe that from these levels, gold should be able actually to start a push to the downside. For me, gold is under bearish pressure. What do you think about the gold? Let me know in the comments. There are many more very interesting opportunities building up. I invite you to our club, our family, the Home Trader Club, to enjoy all the trading opportunities we share with our members during the week with our all-inclusive package. The link is below this video in the description. Of course, you can get your access with our special deal with AvaTrade. So thanks for watching. I wish you best, uh, to you and yours. I wish you wonderful trading. If you are new to our channel, don't forget to subscribe. I'll see you soon with more. Wishing you good trading. Bye for now.
