Vladimir Ribakov analyzes EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and gold for the week of July 28–Aug 1. He maps supply and resistance zones, identifies an ascending wedge on EUR/USD and overbought Bollinger Bands on gold, and lays out two scenarios for each pair: breakout or hold.
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What's up guys? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Before the charts, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to Eightka Broker for supporting our community. To continue and enjoy the amazing offers we have together with Eightka Broker, including free access to Home Trader Club, all the trading strategies, the trading systems, all the trading tools in the marketplace, private mentoring session, and more, please refer to the link below this video in the description. The first pair for today, the EUR/USD, and a quick follow-up on the previous— last week we didn't have a video here, uh, 2 weeks ago We discussed about 2 plans. The first plan was as long as this key supply zone holds, retraces should be considered as a sell. The second option was if the euro managed to break this supply, then we expected to complete final peak before a major retrace down to below 1.15. Again, my view did not change here, and I expect exactly the same. So at the beginning of the next week, this zone should be the market should decide either break to the downside or upside. For the downside, we would want to see the euro regaining the momentum by making the lower highs, lower lows, regaining the bearish momentum, and basically goes. Again, we should see that going below this volume profile. If it managed to go there and act as and hold it as a resistance, we can expect the euro to complete the second leg down. If the euro managed to break through the supply zone, then I would expect to see something like that here until a bearish divergence would complete and then looking for the reversal. On the daily chart, if this scenario happens on a daily chart, start to follow for this wedge. This ascending wedge could be a great sign for the reversal. And let's take a look on the numbers in Home Trader Club Markets Trend Snapshot. So on the last 24 hours, we have the euro in a negative zone but pretty much flat. The monthly and the 7 days about 1% positive. Which could be basically in that case two meanings: one, we are finalizing the bull run, which could classically fit in the wedge scenario, but also that the buyers already lose the control and the last 24 hours is a pre-story, I would say, for the what. to come and the further move to the downside. So that's— the numbers classically fit in the analysis we made. And these would be the 2 scenarios I would be following on the euro-dollar. Next one is the pound-dollar and a quick follow-up on the— again, 2 weeks ago discussion, we were expecting the pound-dollar to continue down and retest the previous low. Which happens. The question, what's next? And I believe the GBP/USD, pretty much similar to the EUR/USD, is yet under the corrective structure before the next long-term rally taking place. So from my point of view, the bearish pressure is not over and we expect to see that further to the downside. It could be a little pullback here and then continuation until a a new low is created. We also might see that going as a BCD or a range here and then the break to the downside. Very important is this zone as we have here key supply level around the 1.3550 up to 1.36 zone. Also huge, as you can see here with our key trading level indicator, both weekly and Daily levels, as you can see, both phenomenal zone. So as long as it holds, the bearish pressure is on the table. If this level would not hold, we can start talking about rallies, but it's a bit early for that. Unlike the euro dollar, the pound dollar is pretty seriously in a negative zone. The one month is shifted to below 1%, 1.4%. Last seven days were a ten or some attempt. By the buyers to reject, but that's usually nothing more than a pullback before continuation. Next one is the USDJPY. 2 weeks ago we were talking about this zone as the area where we expect to see the sellers taking the control. So the biggest question, what's now? What's the case with the USDJPY? And There are two main scenarios to pay attention on the dollar yen. First of all, the existence of this weekly range, which means we can theoretically rally towards this zone, 149, maybe even higher towards the 152, before the next move to the downside. On the daily chart though, we are already Moving within this range, and that's a corrective range after the three waves to the downside, which by itself means sell the rally. So there are two scenarios to pay attention to. One is maybe a retest of this range again, sometimes even an attempt to make a fake breakout, false breakout there before the reversal. What I will be paying attention to is exactly that: sell the rallies. If we get the rally towards this zone, something like that, I would be looking for the next divergences there and go for the sell. This is a very strong area we are facing there in 149.50 in terms of the daily range. If it breaks through, we are going to the weekly peak top range. But these rallies, from my point of view, is an opportunity to sell. In terms of the numbers, we are still positive. The 1 month is close to 2%. 7 days was negative. 24 hours is 0.48%. This is a sign that the buyers are still in control, but the bigger the control gets on the monthly view, the more we are leaving the normal range, the bigger the pressure starts to be. And again, it fits perfectly with the analysis and the expectations based on the chart. The final one would be gold, and we discussed the last session we had here that if we manage to get below this range, we are looking to sell the rallies. However, we never managed to get below the range and the gold managed to make another push up. The question is what's coming next and I want to remind you that we are still under the bearish pressure from the higher time frame. We are here on a clear overbought condition with overriding on the upper Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles on the weekly chart. This is a significant pressure. And I don't have doubts that on the coming month we should see the gold after every rally looking for possible sells. On a daily chart, we are facing a potential zigzag scenario, which is 2 waves down followed by a range. And from my point of view, if we manage to break below this zigzag range and go below this volume profile zone, as you can see That should be a beautiful call to sell on the gold. So from my point of view, again, the sign, the key sign here is should be break below this rising line and hold below there. Get then this zone, the volume profile zone based on the KTLI indicator, the Key Trading Levels indicator. Should be the green light for further sell. That's how I see the gold. Let me know what do you think about this one. 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