In this weekly video, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club presents his technical analysis and trading plan for the upcoming week of May 22‑26, 2023, focusing on three instruments that his community requested: the EUR/CAD currency pair, gold (XAU/USD), and the German DAX index. He begins by reviewing a market‑strength snapshot that shows recent percentage moves for EUR/CAD, using those numbers to frame his bias. For EUR/CAD he highlights a prolonged Bollinger‑Band squeeze on the upper band, multiple bearish candle patterns, broken trendlines, and bullish divergence on a 4‑hour chart, concluding that the optimal approach is to “sell the rallies” near key supply zones and retest levels around 1.40‑1.42. For gold he revisits a recent bearish divergence, identifies a weekly supply zone, and outlines two possible scenarios: a short‑term final drop followed by a bullish wave that could trigger buy entries, or a range‑consolidation that would set up a breakout to the upside. He remains cautious, preferring to miss a trade rather than enter without clear reversal signals. Regarding the DAX, he traces a long‑term bullish wave pattern dating back to 2002, notes a classic bearish divergence on the monthly chart, but argues that the index is still forming higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a continuation bias with buy opportunities at key support‑turned‑resistance zones, while warning that a sudden reversal could flip the strategy to “sell the rallies.” Throughout the video Ribakov repeatedly calls viewers to engage with the Home Trader Club community, subscribe, like, and comment, and he discloses a sponsorship with Mugen Markets, praising its fast execution and low spreads. The video ends with a general invitation to join the club for live sessions and further education.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to my weekly Forex forecast. Today we are preparing for trading week 22nd to 26th May 2023. Uh, in this video I would like to share My analysis and my trading plan on the instruments you guys shared and answered on my YouTube community post. So thanks for all those of you who did, and of course I can't cover all of them in one video, but I will definitely cover several of them. So that would be the Euro CAD, that would be the gold. And we also will be talking about the DAX, okay, in this video. The rest ones, you are welcome to follow us in Home Trader Club, ask any of the instruments you are interested, and of course I'll share my opinion. Also invite you to join us in our live sessions we do every trading week in Home Trader Club. Join us with the link below this video in the Description. The very first instruments I would like to talk about would be the Euro CAD. Let's go to the members area and let's examine our market strength snapshot to see where the Euro CAD stands. Very interesting numbers, and I want to explain how I use these numbers as part of my analysis and my decisions. Let me just go here on. Full screen so you see that properly. So the Euro Canadian, what you see here on the numbers, okay, let's go here. One month is about one percent drop, seven days of zero sixty-three percent, and the last twenty-four hours were bullish. But technically, if we think about it in terms of numbers only, the last day in some sort of a contradicting or counter trend. To what happens on a bigger scale, and if we remember these numbers, and now we will do the technical analysis, you will see how it all connects to the decision of sell the rallies. Now let's go to the charts and see how that all looks like there. So here is the Euro CAD. For those of you who follow my analysis on the last several weeks, you know that I was talking about the Euro CAD. That this zone here is a massive zone for sell opportunities. We've been riding on the upper Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles, right? And usually when such thing happens, the pressure to start to do countermove to the opposite band of the Bollinger Bands starts to increase. The last time it happened with the Bollinger Bands this way was here. Then we got a rally towards the opposite band, and then here on the bottom. Okay, and of course we got rally that is bigger than that. Right now, the right on the upper Bollinger Band for over than 20 candles, we got a beautiful sell opportunity. Now examining the candle patterns, we can see that here we had 2 massive, massive spikes representing the sellers directly from the supply zone here from the weekly chart around the 150, and then we got an engulfing, and now we have 3 red wicks in that row. Okay, now let's go to the daily chart. What do we have on a daily chart? So on a daily chart, we can clearly see at the moment that the most recent trend line was broken. Now we are breaking, uh, this trend line or this trend How you just redraw it a little bit. Um, this trendline also broken. So the next one on line stand is here, and there is a great chance that eventually we will see that going there. So after some sort of a pullback, very good chance the market would go and retest the broken lows that are now behaving as the demand area and the first lows connected as a trendline. Okay, that's around the 142, maybe 140 eventually. So this is exactly my plan. If you are not involved in the sell, sell the run becomes a great opportunity. Going down to the 4-hour chart to try and to spot these opportunities, we can currently see some slowdown conditions at the end of these 3 waves that we, um, we saw the market creating, right, and lower lows on the chart, what we start to see on the indicator is actually higher lows representing a bullish divergence or positive divergence. And this is usually a sign of potential reversal. So I definitely believe that here, maybe, maybe with one more attempt to create another low, but the market will first try to create a a significant pullback before a longer continuation. And these are the zones I would be paying attention to. Okay, the first zone is surrounding the previously created— on the last created high on the 4-hour chart with this massive volume profile-based, uh, level. Okay, this will be the first key zone. The next one surrounded with this resistance that was broken And the support, which is now behave as a resistance. Okay, so any of these levels should behave as an opportunity to look for the sell. Now what does that mean? Because it's easy to say opportunity for sell, but what does it really mean, right? So it means very simply that as soon as you enter the zone, start looking for key reversal signs. It all starts with candles. Or bars for those who are using bars. You want to see some rejection. You want to see the flip from higher highs, higher lows. You want to see lower highs, lower lows. You want to see the bears are trying to take the control. For those who are using divergences like myself, then look for bearish divergences to start to form. For those who are using trendline breakouts, then use for trendline breakouts. Okay, so look for the signs that really Um, show that the sellers are taking that control. So this is my plan for the EUR/CAD: sell the rallies from the key zones that should be eventually retested. And assuming they are holding and providing the sell opportunities, that's our sell opportunity to go with. Now before I move on, I really want to take the moment and to ask your support back. If you appreciate this video and the work I put here, and find value in the trading opportunities and the analysis and trading plan I share with you, please hit this like button below this video. If you are new to the channel, welcome to our community. Subscribe to the channel with the subscribe button, and a few words in the comment section would be a great support and great help. Thank you very much in advance. This is how YouTube algorithm works, you know, uh, it needs all these little engagement and activity, so I really want to Thank for all those of you who take the time and support the work, and I appreciate it. Thank you very much in advance. The next one is the gold. Quick follow-up to what we discussed on the last weeks and the last videos I published. After this fake high we created with bearish divergence, we anticipated some pullback. The ideal zone for us was the retest of the previous low. And this support zone, which is now reached. Okay, but here is the maybe a little tricky condition. So let's go to the weekly chart so you will see what I'm talking about. On the weekly chart at the moment, this classical rejection zone, supply zone, you name it, okay, still holds. Do we have a sign that the uptrend is over? No. But the pullback might be— I don't claim it will, but it might be slightly deeper than originally or initially planned due to the way that the current price action is structured. I still expect though that as soon as it's completed, the next rally should create all-time high. And with this analysis in mind, I am after buy opportunities. So here is what we currently have. This is the most recent trend line. This is the broken resistance that becomes a support. As long as this zone holds, that means for us, okay, that's legit opportunity to look for possible buys. However, the most recent uptrend line here was broken, and we do have lower lows. Many times this is a sign of a potential correction. Correction could be in a deeper structure of ABCD Correction also could be in some sort of a range, okay? Some movement here for a while before it really gets the momentum. Okay, so with that in mind, um, I'm still after buy for the long term. However, I'm not confident we have the signs for the buys already. And here are the 2 ways I would expect the gold to follow. Way number one, It's basically creating something like that, trying to get the momentum. One more final drop before the big run. Another opportunity, another waving structure, not opportunity, waving structure we could get it going is like making another final move down here, complete a condition of bullish divergence, moving average of the MACD and the RSI. So the market makes lower lows and Indicator starts to make higher lows, and then look for the buys. Okay, so this is the instant waving situation I currently can see. If that happens, this short-term sell from this waving is good, and then once we create low buys, absolutely make sense. The Another scenario here is, as I mentioned before, is a range. If range happens, okay, that means we should see something like that— several attempts to make, uh, highs and lows with failed attempt. Because in a range, there are no trending conditions, there are no trending structures. And if we really manage to get into this consolidation, that would be a great sign that once it's broken we should go and move to the upside. So could it just take a rally from here? The answer is yes, of course. But technically speaking, the odds for something like that are very low at the moment. And if the rally is really taking place, then I, I think what should happen first of all is the price to go above this falling resistance line, make the higher highs, higher low structure, retest and hold the line, and only then we can start looking for these reversal signs for a buy. Before that, I would not really feel comfortable personally, uh, going for a buy for an all-time high scenario. That's my personal view. I hope I'm not going to miss the party with the gold But my personal, um, you know, motto in trading is I prefer to miss than to regret. I don't want to be involved in something that I don't feel comfortable with on the charts. And at the moment, the way the waves are structured, I simply do not feel comfortable to get involved. As simple as that. So I want to see the gold making the waves as I just presented. Uh, and, uh, then I'll definitely be looking to trade these opportunities. Let me know, what do you think about the gold? I'm very curious to hear. Do you think we are ready for all-time highs from here, or there's better chance we will see something like $1,900 or maybe even lower being retested first of all? Share your views in the comment section below the And also, I would like to take the opportunity and to thank Mugen Markets for supporting my work and my channel. Recently, I joined them and I trade with them as well. And this is my account, as you can see here, just opened recently. So it's like very low activity at the moment. The reason I love Mugen Markets is what they offer is instant executions, fast execution, which is important for me as a trader. Very convenient spread, instant crypto withdrawals, uh, and deposits. And, uh, they have a professional pump marketplace and so many more advantages and features. So to learn more about them, just follow the link below this video in the description. And the final one for today, the German DAX. As I mentioned at the beginning, I believe the German DAX— yes, I know it doesn't sound right. I mean, the whole market under such uncertainty and conditions. I believe the German DAX is setting up an all-time high and very, very possibly a final high before something bad will hit. And here is why I think so. Starting from 2002, okay, that's Look at these waves. They are major, major waves in this uptrend. Okay, the long-term bullish trend is so strong that, you know, nothing really changed for the long term. So I do believe that this should complete here somewhere. I don't want to predict the exact level. The classical all-time high all the time bearish divergence on a monthly chart and bring something big. The last time it happened was right when the pandemic hit. It was right here creating the same conditions— higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the indicator— and we received one massive wave to the downside. That's why I believe the next one to form and complete should bring a couple of them or maybe even a trend change. So that right now we are rallying and rallying to complete this all-time high. Uh, could that be like a double top? Yes, but again, at the moment there are no signs it's over. If we examine the most recent trend line structure, it's still pushing up— higher highs, higher lows. There are no completed reversal signs at the moment. It could change anytime, don't get me wrong. It could be like one terrible week or month and everything changes. But at the moment, the German DAX is still completing the highs and the lows, and as long as that's the case, I don't see any reason to go and change it. We don't know where the top would be, right? So why to guess? So, um, the bullish run for me remains what I would be paying attention to if the daily does start to create Opposite signs. For example, higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the indicator, and then let's say the break below the most recent trend line. If that happens and we start to make the lower lows, yes, it would be sell the rallies. But until it, um, until the bullish momentum is going and ongoing, I see no reason why it would not continue. And moreover, it should provide the potential opportunities for a buy. We have this massive rally and the stoppage. This could behave as a support for the next final rally until the 4-hour would make the divergence, okay? And then the daily makes the divergence. This is the first key zone for potential rejection and rally, okay? The next important potential zone is the previously broken resistance that behaves as support. If it holds. And then also we have this volume zone, okay? So each of these mentioned levels, if it's retested and holding, could provide good opportunities to join the ongoing trend and create the highs. But very, very, very important, levels that is reached does not mean it's a buy. You want to see price rejection, you want to see that buyers are trying to take the control. Because without it, just a level— we want to see the buyers. If we want to buy, we want to see there are buyers, right? That's pretty much, uh, straight logic when it comes to, uh, to trading. So this is, uh, for me, the short-term, uh, view still remains bullish. And again, don't get me wrong, it could change in a day. Or in a week with indices, but I don't think it's there yet. It's coming; it's building up with high probability of a recession coming on the next several years. Yeah, it doesn't look promising. But is it here already to hit? At least technically speaking, no yet from my point of view. So that would be it for this video. For many more instruments. Real-time trading opportunities, real-time trading education, access to full and complete trading courses, comprehensive media zone, and so much more. Join our trading family in Home Trader Club with the link below this video. And once again, if you are new to this channel, welcome to our community. Please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. And if you do find value in this video and my work I do here for you, please hit this like button, a few words in the comment section. And thank you very much in advance, of course, for all your help. Best to you and yours. I wish you a successful week ahead. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
