Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY, GOLD (XAUUSD) - 5 August 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, big thanks to 8K Broker for continuously supporting our community and this channel. To enjoy all the amazing offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club, the live trading rooms for short-term trading, the trading systems, the indicators, private sessions, everything, please refer to the link below this video in the description. There are several very interesting opportunities building up on the charts. We will be talking today about the EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP, and gold, which I want to also follow up on what we discussed in the previous week. Um, but before that, quick overview on the fundamental things. It was very busy week, uh, with the news and everything. Let's quickly go over that so we see what did we get, what does that mean, uh, and what's coming on the next week. So I'm not going over all of them, but the main events here, the US Jules jobs opening really stable, strong numbers that was giving some favor on the dollar at the beginning of the week as the expectations were you know the the market to the jobs market start to shrink and the nonfarm payrolls then basically flipped the situation. I'll show it later. Consumer confidence in the U.S. Showed great numbers. And then we got with CPI in Australia that actually stands for the— as for the prediction, 3.8% versus the previous 4% read. It's shrinking, uh, and it will very likely, if the numbers continue, would give the Australian Central Bank more freedom to cut further rates. We saw the Australian dollar losing a lot of momentum this week. Then we got, of course, one of the main events was the Bank of Japan hiked the rates to quarter percent. This was dramatic move in the Japanese standards, and we saw how much the Japanese currency, how much strength it gained against all of the majors. We would see one of them, the pound yen today, of course. And then we got lots of stuff from the eurozone. The CPI in eurozone holds it. It's below 3%, yes, but the estimate was showing a little improvement. Didn't happen. And so in the— also the CPI flash estimate and the annual rate was 2.6 versus 2.5 expected. We saw the euro-dollar gaining some strength, and that's Possibly something that will remain with it. And then of course we had the Federal Reserve holding the rate, but, but, but, but preparing the ground for the cut in September. Okay, uh, the market anticipated that big time. And then of course we had the British, uh, bank cutting its rate, um, and the way it looks right now, they vote for more. And then we had the main event I would say of of the evening was of the of the week. The was the nonfarm payrolls where we see the market, the job market shrinking to the levels where it puts the the pressure on the Fed to start and to act and to cut the rates, and that gave the final boost to that dollar the the dollar pairs. Anti-dollar moves. So let's see now how the coming week looks like. It's the first week of August. We start with a long weekend in Canada, as you can see, Civic Day. So happy long weekend to all the Canadian followers of ours. We have the cash rate in Australia. Doubtful that they will cut the rates in the coming week. But the— with the numbers we saw before, with the CPI that keeps improving slowly, definitely gives some expectation that this could be the next, uh, step of the bank as well. We have an unemployment rate in New Zealand, um, that's pretty much the, the main event. Inflation expectations in New Zealand as well. And then in Canada We have the employment market as well. So compared to the previous week, this one is going to be quiet. Now let's go on the charts and see what do we have here. We had—I'll make a quick follow-up on the euro dollar. One of our plans was basically we marked some zones the previous week, and these levels were key levels. The expectations was that once we complete the divergence in that zone, right, we should see the euro dollar making its rally. So we see the euro dollar making the rally. The question is, what's next for that? For that, let's quickly take a look on the read that we have in our market trend snapshot, one of our features in Home Trader Club in the members area. Take a look on the numbers here. Very positive read. Over 1.5% in the month, over half percent in the last 7 days, over 1% in the last 24 hours. The euro is under bullish momentum. So connected to the analysis, and please watch the previous videos, uh, on the— from the weekly forecast if you want to see the full analysis again. But what one of the scenarios we were following Is that the euro potentially building some sort of a range here, and once it breaks it up, it will try to go and complete its rally with the weekly cycle. Now with the data from the eurozone and the data from nonfarm payroll on the US, it gave some boost. What we see on the euro dollar that We started here to regain the momentum. The price is holding right now above the big volume zone. This is a monthly and weekly volume profile-based balance zone, and we start to build here some sequence of highs and lows. There are no signs against nowhere. Classical synchronization between the chart and the price. On the 4-hour chart, we already saw these divergences that we discussed from the last week as well completed. Now the most recent trend line is broken. Again, we are above the beautiful balance zone based on the volume profile. Higher highs on the chart, higher highs on the indicator gives a classical bullish convergence. So from my point of view, as long as the most recent low holds, I would say that in validation, as long as it holds, buy the dips would be my plan here. As simple as that, straightforward. What do you think about the euro? How would you expect this one to continue from here? Let me know in the comments. The next one would be the pound yen. Before that, I would like to ask your support and your help. If you find value in this video, you enjoy the opportunities the knowledge I try to share here with you, please hit the like button. If you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. And a few words in the comment section makes huge difference and huge help with all the way that YouTube algorithm works. So thank you very much in advance to all those of you who take the time and to support back. Let's continue. So on the last weekly forecast, and during the week I uploaded a follow-up video Covering two key zones we have on the pound yen. One of them was basically around here. Next one was all the way to this area. I was expecting to see around this level on the four-hour chart to see some bullish divergence. I was expecting to see here lower lows on the chart with higher lows on the MACD, which never created. Therefore. The conclusion is straightforward: levels do not hold. Sellers are in full control. Buyers are not there in the game yet. So if we go back to the roots of our analysis, we discussed a couple of weeks ago that from this zone, as soon as we reach the supply area, and once we got, if you remember, the Bollinger Band, let me just show it to you. Here we go, right? As soon as we got— where is the breakout candle? Here. As soon as we got here with the breakout, uh, with the Bollinger Band, uh, resistance, the plan was look for the sells. Believe it or not, in like a month, uh, it is over 2,000 points to that downside. So what's next with the Uh, pound yen. We are now in very strong oversold condition with the weakness from Britain, with the strength from the yen. I do not think it is over. I definitely think the pound yen could and should go and clean these significant levels. So there are two scenarios that's gonna happen from here. One We start with the pullback, ideally back to these resistances. We have key zone here, supply, supply, the area where sellers were in control and proved already area of interest. We also have this volume profile balance zone, and the next area we have there on the GBPJPY is around this massive supply zone as well, as you can see also here. So any pullbacks to one of these areas, if happens, opens the door for a potential further continuation downside. That would be the ideal scenario. However, sometimes the market goes bananas, right? And what could happen in rare conditions, pound yen makes the drop towards these zones straightforward without looking left and right. And from there, I would expect to see some very oversold conditions there, very likely a bullish divergence, and from there a major turnaround that could bring 500 up to 1,500 pips rally from there. So, uh, for me, the plan since The levels that we saw did not hold. The plan is simple. The level I was waiting for bullish divergence never completed. The plan is simple: sell the rallies. Okay, directly from the levels we saw before. Any rally here, we could also experience some bearish hidden divergence. Okay, higher, lower, for example, with trendline, right? Lower highs on the chart, higher highs on the MACD histogram. And we can see massive move to the downside from there. And again, alternatively, if nothing happens and if the price continues slowly, slowly down, making down move here, we should be able to see here a bullish divergence, lower lazy lows or fake lows, and around the key zone we saw before from the daily chart, from there a major rally back to the balance zone. So that's how I would be looking to work with the pound. And I'm not sure it's going to take a week, but on the coming weeks, that would be my trading plan for both the sell and the buy. What would be your expectations from this one? How low are we going from here, or how high are we going from here before the bearish trend continues? Let me know in the comment section. Next one for today, euro pound. We didn't talk about it for some time now, but If you remember in one of the long forecasts shared before, we discussed about this range and we saw that as long as the range holds and from the bottom of this range, we actually could see the euro pound trying to push to the upside. With the data we saw from Britain and the data we saw from eurozone, it's very likely to go and continue. So on the daily chart from the Take a look what happens here. We got these beautiful 3 waves coming to the end with a bullish divergence. Absolutely classical, including the last lows making its own divergence on the MACD, the RSI, the histogram. It is fantastic. The most recent trend line here is broken, and now we are building higher highs on the chart with higher highs on the histogram. Which means bullish convergence, classical condition. So there are a couple scenarios for me on the euro pound. Scenario 1 would be the short-term sells from here. Scenario 2, if it— if the— this is the one to follow first, look for the buys. So let's start with the first one. We have supply zone here and huge volume profile zone. We have supply area here. It's a bit wide, but take a look how many spikes and significant levels here of sellers. So I believe that these zones are due to sell. And if we go to the 4-hour chart, what could happen here, basically 4-hour or 1-hour, it could be a combo, we could start to see like fake highs in this area and from there a beautiful sell opportunity building up. Alternatively, with the bullish divergence we saw on the 4-hour chart. And with the bullish momentum the euro pound gains at the moment, one of the classical scenarios would be— again, depends what the market follows at the beginning of the week— but if it drops before it completes the highs, if it drops down, we have several levels to watch. We have broken resistance as support, broken resistance as support, and broken resistance as support. We have a dynamic trend line here, which is dynamic support right now, right? So from these zones, we could be looking to buy the euro pound towards the supply zone we saw from the daily chart. And if we go to the numbers here on the market trend snapshot, take a look how everything shifts. To the bullish view on the euro pound. And monthly is over half percent, 7 days over 1%, over half percent in the last 24 hours. It's a very, very, very bullish momentum. Therefore, the view as I just shared with you. What would you expect on the euro pound? Let me know in the comments. The final one for today would be the gold. On the last week, a quick follow-up. One of the zones we were talking about was the zone, as long as it holds, I was expecting a move down. Clearly this plan was not followed. The gold is very confusing and basically did not respect this level. So the bearish view I did have on the short term didn't provide any move and failed. So what is next with the gold? My view, as I said on the last week, it's very confusing, uh, and yet with A massive divergence developing here on the monthly chart. If it completes, it means the gold is likely to crash. With the monthly divergence and with the weekly divergence in potential here, the pressure starts to be real. So what I would want to see from gold is one of the two scenarios. Ideally, complete this high. Complete the bearish divergence daily and weekly, make some, uh, fake attempt to create a high, and from there a beautiful strong move to the downside. Scenario number 2 is a quick bounce to the downside, break below this recent low, right? Creation of lower lows on the chart and lower lows on indicator, and from there sell the rallies back inside this balance area. I cannot say I have an obvious clear view on the gold straight to action. I did want to follow up on the previous weekly view, and I do want to see this fake high to complete the divergences, to make it cleaner, and then look for the setups. Until then, I really don't see nothing Worse, the action on the gold—it's very zigzaggy, very noisy. Personally, I would be careful. So I wanted to share this follow-up with you. Let me know what do you think about the gold. Maybe you have much better inputs than myself. Please share with us in the comment section below this video. That's pretty much it for this video. Big thanks for for watching. Once again, I wish you a wonderful August. Enjoy the summer as is, and I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you can enjoy access to all the courses, real-time education we have with the real-time opportunities sharing with our members, access to all the media zone, the trading tools, the community, myself, so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Meanwhile, best to you and yours. Thanks again for watching. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.