Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPCAD - 12 August 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. As always, before we begin, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting our community. To enjoy all the amazing offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club up to one full year, the live trading rooms, the private sessions, private mentoring sessions, the trading systems, the indicators, everything of your choice, please refer to the link below this video in the description. The first pair for today would be the EUR/USD. So last week, uh, we were talking about one of the scenarios. Let me just quickly show it to you here. One of the scenarios we were following that we want to see the Pull back down, and from there start looking for further buys. So before I explain the technical part and what would I be following from here, let's quickly take a look on the news here, on the news and what is expected this week, and you will understand from there why the euro dollar is sort of in a place where it could play. Both directions easily based on the outcome of what's coming on the news. So the main event starts on Tuesday and then Wednesday. The Tuesday is going to be PPI and core PPI in the US, which is expected to stay stable, maybe a little bit improve, right? Then we have the cash rate in New Zealand, which could be also of course very interesting. But US related on all these instruments, the Wednesday one is the one that everyone is waiting for: the CPI, the core CPI, and the annual read of the inflation rates. So based on the numbers, as we can see here, the inflation should show some muscles again. That could be good news, that could be bad news. All depends how much deviation we will see from these numbers, if at all. And based on that, it should give investors some sort of anticipation what would be the next decision of the Fed, which already hinted there could be a rate cut for the first time after a very long time. In September, so all these factors, all this news would definitely give some light and would affect the probabilities the market anticipates the Fed to go and act on September about the rates and cut them. Oh, then of course we have the retail sales that's going to be on Thursday. And that's the main event from— that's what's going to define very likely the next waves and the next swing moves. So EUR/USD, in terms of the chart we will see in a moment, in terms of the numbers, what we can see here that the last 7 days and the last months are pretty much around the 1% change while the 24 hours are basically doing nothing. The last day was absolutely nothing. So that brings us back to the technical analysis. What is going on then? The momentum, as we saw based on the numbers, based on percentage change, still positive. The 7-day, the month, still very positive. And I want to refer back to the analysis we are following for some time now. The euro dollar has 2 possibilities here. One, break of the range to complete The big two waves on the weekly timeframe. Okay, second is that we are playing this range, but a bit like this. So one more drop is expected. Something something like that. Okay, which scenario the market is going to to choose? It's pretty much at the moment undecided. If you can see, it is still moving in a very very very. Sort of triangle or consolidation that is expected to, you know, explode to one of the directions. And later or sooner, of course, it will happen. But at the moment, it's basically in between of nowhere. But here is a very, I would say, problematic view with the buys. And I will explain, of course, why yes, a buy, and why problematic view with the buy. So if we Block this triangle or the range as it is. The current three waves are basically losing momentum. Every following wave is smaller than the one before. We do have a divergence here, bearish divergence, and it's happening everywhere, everywhere. MACD moving averages, RSI histogram. Right, so based on that, the euro dollar should go all the way down. But it also could be take a look what what happens here. We are on a dynamic movement to the upside. Yes, there is divergence, no doubts. But we are still holding above this balance zone. This is based on the volume profile. If if if we take a look, all these candles are basically blocked inside one green candle, which is by itself a positive sign. So that's why, as you can see, the euro-dollar right now entered the zone where it could justify easily every following outcome here. So we need to be prepared for both. The bullish scenario is, of course, as we discussed, we want to see the euro going out of this range, successfully breaking that, and then making its further rally to complete the weekly cycles. That could happen slightly lower from the balance zone, or maybe even from the demand area. All that would be absolutely normal for the buyers. But here is a scenario for the sell, judging the fact what happens if the inflation is still here and the numbers go high, and the chances that the— sorry, the chances that the Federal Reserve would be actually able to go and cut the rates on September would drop. In that case, the euro is expecting to complete the second weekly leg to the downside, as we saw a couple of minutes ago. And the way to act with that would be if the euro-dollar will be able to manage here some sort of 3 waves, break the rising, uh, trend line, right, go below this volume profile zone we saw before on a daily chart Make the 3 waves, right? And then we can basically talk about further continuation down to go and complete. Let's go to the weekly chart once again to go and complete. So something like that. Imagine it happens on a lower time frame pullback and breakout to complete this second wave down and basically to retest the previous previously created low right here in October last year. So these are the Price movement, the scenarios I would be following for the euro dollar right now. It's very indecisive, and yet could start from here the next the next movement, the next wave. This is still a very possible scenario. Something like that for the euro dollar. Go complete some divergence here, right? Hold the rising supportive line. And fly if the numbers come out good or bad. I would say good as it shows to the inflation improvement. So that's the euro dollar. That's the preparation I would be looking at and the way I would be looking to trade the euro dollar this week. Let me know, how do you see this one? What would you expect from this pair? Share with us in the comment section. Next pair for today, the euro pound. Before that, I would like to ask your help. If you find value and appreciate this video, please hit Like button. If you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. So just remember to enable notifications so you know when I upload new content for you, new trading opportunities or educational content here in the channel. A few words in the comments would be fantastic help as always. So thank you for taking the time for supporting back. Now let's continue. So follow up on our discussion on last week where we were following the euro pound. This plan where we should get the next or final rally before the EUR/GBP takes the move down. So if we go back to the Home Trader Club members area and we take a look on the numbers the EUR/GBP is generating, what we will see here that from very positive momentum, which is on the monthly chart over 1% and 7 days over 1.5%, The last 24 hours are still in the negative zone, which means we are in corrective movement. It's still a bullish momentum. This plan did not change. We even got that a short opportunity here on that's a trade we are in with from Home Trader Club short-term sales before very likely we would be looking for the. Buys. So how and what I would expect on the euro pound? Judging the weekly time frame, the most recent completed divergence here hints that the euro pound is preparing for a rally. Okay, is it so? We can argue about that because the euro pound still does not manage to break above this high. Okay, to continue and maintain this momentum. Okay, however, the fact that this week ended in a way it is with some bullish spike after started— sorry, bearish spike after started bullish the whole week could still be a hint that the buyers are just preparing to load for the next week. So here is what I will be looking at to do with this pair. On a daily chart, we did have a bullish divergence and bullish convergence when the market was making higher highs on the chart and higher highs on the At the moment, there is nothing against that. So I would be looking for possible retraces and further buys. For that, I would be looking at specific levels for the buys. Yeah, we have a broken resistance that becomes a support, and a broken resistance that becomes a support. Of course, we have the dynamic supportive line, which is the trend line. And as you can see, the range here between these two dynamic moving averages, 15, 200, right? This area here should be a beautiful area on the euro pound if it's really slowing down there on the lower time frame. We are very likely to see some rounding here creating this condition and start its further rally. Okay, if the buyers really manage to take the control then we could expect the EUR/GBP actually pushing up at least to retest this high, very likely even beyond that. Okay, but we also need to keep in mind that despite all the bullish momentum we suddenly got on this pair, it never yet managed to break this high, so a rally also could be fake. Okay, for this scenario, if the next thing happens on the EUR/GBP exactly like with the EUR/USD, imagine we now Are going for three waves. Then it could simply be a hint that the euro pound is entering a negative zone for further continuation to the downside. So on the short term, I still see the room for the euro pound trying to push to this zone we just discussed about to retest the broken. Resistance that becomes support, dynamic supportive line. From there it would be the decisive moment. It is either going through by breaking and making 3 lower highs, lower lows, then we talk about sell the rallies, or it slows down in this, this place, completes its bullish divergence here, uh, 4-hour, 1-hour charts, and from there we start to move to the upside. So this is the follow-up plan on what we started to discuss in the last week, and this is how I would be looking to trade the euro pound in the coming week. Let me know what do you think about this pair. Is it on your list? What do you expect to see from this one? Share with us in the comments. Next one would be the pound yen, a follow-up on what we discussed on the last week. I also published a video for you During the during the week, there's a follow-up. So we were talking about the this level that the pound yen should hold before we start to see the rally. Classical conditions happen to be on the MACD and the RSI completing oversold conditions. Absolutely new low. If we take a look on the Bollinger Bands indicator. We can see that starting from this candle, the Bollinger Band dynamic support at number 3 was retested. All come together to the same place. We are in the key level with the extreme conditions. We can talk about the buys. Okay, so what's next with this pair? Uh, there are a couple scenarios I believe we should follow on this instrument. Scenario number one, we should remember that we have a dynamic resistance line which is eventually expected to be retested. Right now we are gaining here some three waves to the upside. Such price movement has usually two possible follow-ups. The the first one and the I would say most common one is. Something like that, some ABCD or some range here, and then final rally to retest the next important key levels, which in our case are here and then here. Okay, we have broken support becomes resistance and supply, broken support becomes resistance and supply where the sellers took control. This is scenario number one. Scenario number two, which still could happen. Is that this is just a little slowdown before final wave takes place, completes a new dip, a new low, completes a massive bullish divergence on everywhere— MACD, moving average, RSI— and from there makes a very big retrace to the upside. Two scenarios that I will be following, of course, to trade. The first one is ABCD correction or a range, and then the break and continuation. Second one is basic, and of course the hold of this buyer's zone, right? That would be scenario number one. Scenario number two, if it simply goes and breaks through, let it makes the final low, complete the bullish divergence, and then after that buys. Share with us your thoughts of this pair in the comment section. Let's continue. And the final one for today, the pound Canadian. Very interesting scenario happening here, uh, and pound Canadian. Let's take a look on the numbers. Okay, very mixed numbers, and that's where it gets interesting. After massive rally we experienced on this pair, look at the months, goes below half percent change. Which means the momentum is clearly lost. And the 7 days basically make more than 1% in the negative area while the 24 hours create no change. This is very negative numbers, which means the sellers are in control in the short term and the pair could actually go and make its correction. Now, this is very interesting, mixed and interesting opportunity because on the long term, I am still under the opinion that after the pullback completes, we are going for a massive rally. But on the short term, if you take a look on the weekly chart, the weekly chart comes to the place where it hits the massive supply zone. It gets closer to 180, the round number, hits a bearish divergence on the MACD and hints that a correction to the downside is very, very, very likely. If you go to the daily chart, on the daily chart we did bounce off extreme or overbought condition. Divergence overbought condition. Add that to the fact that the weekly chart has its own divergence, and what we got here is some bearish momentum with a very strong probability that as long as the last high holds, we are going to play some short-term sells. So, and with this idea in mind, that's what I am going with. If we go to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the 4-hour chart started to create Whoa, sorry, create some bearish momentum by making a sequence of lower highs, lower lows. At the moment, there are no signs against. And the very interesting part, the 4-hour chart completed its bearish divergence and then broke this low, which is a great sign by itself for the sell. Okay, so the current momentum, you can see how strong this supportive area turned to be. This is based on our KTLI indicator, Key Trading Levels indicator, and you can see the bounce of that. So what is very likely to happen from here is that the pound CAD is going to play here some corrective movement in 2 waves or some range. We have a falling resistance line here. We have some very important zones. I would say this is the key zone. Okay, from the inner zone where we see this consolidation and the broken support, it now acts as a resistance. The closer we get to this area together with the falling resistance line, the stronger the probability that from there we will see the pound Canadian making another move to the downside, at least on the short term. So that's what I would be looking to trade on the pound CAD. We have a very strong zone here also. The meeting point of the moving averages should happen soon. So this is again key area with the trend line, the supply and the resistances. From there, I think we should be looking for further sell opportunity. Pay attention also to a possible scenario here of a bearish hidden divergence. While the market makes the lower highs, indicator can go and complete higher highs. That would be a hidden divergence which hints for possible trend continuation. So that's my view on the pound CAD. Let me know what do you think about this one. How do you plan to trade it, if at all? Share with us in the comment section. That's it for this video. I hope you found value in watching that. And if you did, don't forget to hit this like button. If you are new to our channel, please don't forget to subscribe. And I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you can get access to the full comprehensive trading courses, media zone, real-time trading education and opportunities, access to our community, so much more. Join us with the link below this video in the description. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Enjoy your summer. Bye for now. Good trading. Good trading.