In this weekly market outlook, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club thanks sponsor 8K Broker and introduces the upcoming trading week. He highlights a recent attempted attack on Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in Lebanon, noting that heightened Middle‑East tension could influence risk sentiment. Ribakov then outlines the key economic calendar: China manufacturing PMI, Germany CPI, a Powell speech, US JOLTS, Eurozone CPI, US ADP, Swiss CPI, US unemployment claims, ISM Services PMI, and finally Friday’s non‑farm payrolls. He proceeds with technical analysis and trade ideas for four instruments: - EUR/USD: The pair is near a key Fibonacci extension zone and a previous weekly swing high that acts as a supply zone. Weekly and daily bearish divergences are forming; the plan is to “sell the rallies” after a final short‑term high, with an alternative scenario of a breakdown below recent lows. - GBP/USD: Similar Fibonacci 61.8% expansion near a massive supply zone. A bearish weekly divergence is developing, complemented by a daily divergence. Ribakov suggests buying dips while anticipating a larger pull‑back after a short‑term rally. - EUR/GBP: The pair is at a potential bullish divergence on the weekly chart but could also continue lower if Eurozone CPI remains high. The strategy is to sell rallies unless the pair makes three higher highs, which would invalidate the bearish outlook. - Gold: Gold is flirting with an all‑time high and shows strong overbought conditions across monthly, weekly and daily timeframes. A bearish moving‑average divergence appears on the 4‑hour chart. The recommended approach is to watch for a final rally to complete divergences, then look for a corrective move down, especially on the 1‑hour chart. Ribakov closes by urging viewers to like, subscribe, and join the Home Trader Club for full courses, real‑time education, and trading opportunities.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, as always, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting our community. To enjoy all the amazing offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club up to one full year, the private mentoring sessions, trading strategies, trading systems. We have the indicators on the marketplace and so much more. Please take a look in the link below this video in the description. Quick fundamental overview of what is coming this week. It is a non-farm payroll week, but the main focus for the beginning of the week would be, uh, what would happen During the weekend in the Middle East, there was an attempt to attack Nasrallah in Lebanon that could have direct impact on what is happening with Iran and all their threats in the Middle East. My prayers and hopes for peace, of course, in the Middle East, but that whatever will happen there during the weekend. Could have direct impact on how the market will begin. Besides that, this is non-farm payroll week once again, and it will happen on Friday. But here is what comes at the beginning of the week and during the week. So it starts with the manufacturing PMI in China, CPI in Germany. Then we have the speech from Powell on all that happens on Monday. Tuesday is busy with the JOLTS. Job openings in the US, and of course the CPI in Eurozone annual read that would have a direct impact on how the euro-dollar is going to play on this week and the following weeks after that. And then the preparation for non-farm payrolls—that's the ADP report in US—that happens on Wednesday. CPI in Switzerland. and then the unemployment claims and the ISM Services PMI in the US. And on Friday, non-farm payroll, the cherry on the cake in that case. So now let's take a look on the charts, and the first pair will be the EUR/USD. A quick follow-up on what we discussed on the last week. Our expectations were that the EUR/USD is going to Slowly, slowly, slowly build up these final tops before it managed to change the trend. Now I want you to pay attention to the numbers. Take a look on the EUR/USD. This is a market trend snapshot. It's one of the features we have in Home Trader Club. Look at the numbers. The 1-month shifted from very positive run to, after a big range, to around the zero, a bit negative. The seven days also without change and twenty-four hours. That means we are going almost flat with expectations to the CPI in Eurozone annual rate this week. Now technically speaking, the euro dollar is flirting with a key zone. If we plot Fibonacci extension on these two legs, what you will figure out that we have here. A key zone. How important is this area? This area is also right next to this previous swing high, which stands for the supply zone, and all that happens to be around the previous high. Let me just draw it to you here. A previous high of the first weekly peak, and all these spikes where again tons of transactions happen. A lot of sells happen here, as you can see with these spikes holding on the peak. This is a key zone. I believe as the euro dollar enters this zone or comes very close to there, the pressure there should start to build up, and from there I do expect the euro dollar to make its move down. So with that being said, I would be looking how the weekly, of course, and this daily divergence plays out, it already starts to build beautifully. So if we manage to get this final rally here, it should be doors— it should open the doors for the bears to come in. And on the 4-hour chart, I think it's time to get ready for a potential reversal sign. So once again, ideal scenario We get these final highs, I would say, and then this trend line and the lows to be broken, and then sell the rallies is the plan. But one alternative scenario, as the weekly divergence, daily divergence already starts to build up, that what could happen with the euro is we start to build some momentum here going below the recent lows that already have this divergence, and from there pullbacks and further continuation to the downside. So pay attention to the EUR/USD and how the news will play after this news. Very likely the market will start to build one of these cycles. Let's pay attention what will happen and how it will play. The next one would be the GBP/USD, and also a quick follow-up on our previous week discussion. We were following drops, further rally before it managed to change the trend. And that's pretty much what I would expect from the GBP/USD to happen before the charts. Let's take a look again on the numbers. As we saw in the EUR/USD, it starts to be negative. GBP/USD also from the like 3% rally over months, it starts to be below the Uh, 8 below the 1%. The last 7 days were still bullish, but the 24 hours already show a slowdown, pretty significant slowdown. So what happens with the pound-dollar? Same Fibonacci as the euro-dollar shows us that we are next to key 61.8 Fibonacci expansion. All that happens to be around this massive supply zone here And here, which we already inside this spike. Now besides that, the weekly chart is building up a bearish divergence. Once that completes, I believe that should be the sign that opens the door for the pound dollar to move lower. Meanwhile, as the weekly divergence forms, I believe that the daily divergence also should complete itself. The ideal scenario here would be some retraces, final rally, and then bigger turnaround. And that's pretty much what we should be following on the 4-hour chart. At the moment, I believe this is a key low here, right? So if it breaks this low, it can play some corrective structure here, make the final rally as we saw on the weekly and the daily chart, and only from there big significant turnaround. So at the moment, I do expect pullbacks, and I do believe the GBPUSD has still a little bit more to push to the upside towards these levels we just saw on a daily and the 4-hour and the weekly chart. So for me, it is still buy the dips, and on the short term, as it creates new peaks, I believe pullbacks are due. So for those of you who love the aggressive style of trading against the higher time frame ongoing trend, this could be definitely an interesting opportunity to watch and to trade. Next one, euro pound. We discussed a quick follow-up here on what we discussed last week. Our plan here, rally and further continuation down. As you can see, the market was attempting to do that, but now it starts to block this sort of a bottom. So a lot of that would be decided how it goes with the, uh, the news in eurozone. But pay attention to this weekly chart. I believe the coming 1 up to 3 weeks are critical because this could turn to be a bullish divergence. On the other hand, it could continue all the way lower Until this divergence would be simply disappeared. Okay, so right now the momentum is key, uh, or, or this weekly momentum is key, and this divergence as it potentially happens is key. It has absolutely 2 scenarios, and many things would depend how the news will show in eurozone. Further easing on the CPI and the inflation pressure, and the euro can push lower and Take with that all the euro pairs like the euro pound, and then the target for that would be all the way to the previous weekly lows. So meanwhile, until the reversal signs completed, my plan remains the same. It would be either ABCD or any sort of a range here for further continuation down. What could invalidate that? Would be if the euro pound managed to make 3 higher highs, higher lows, ideally to go above this trend line and the previous peak, and then we can talk about buy the dips together with the weekly divergence. As long as it didn't happen, the plan is straightforward: sell these rallies. If we take a look on the numbers And on the euro pound, where is the euro pound? Here, here. We can see that the months and the seven days still in a very negative momentum below one percent. It is significant. Therefore, the bearish momentum is still there, and unless this divergence will. Complete and the signs, as I explained on the 4-hour chart, would hint a trend change. As long as it didn't happen, sell the rallies would be my trading plan. And the final one for today, the gold. I published my video during the week on gold with an update and expected further rally as it bounces a little bit. But now gold is on key zones. So first of all, I want to remind you that we are flirting with absolute peak, all-time high, no need to remind, but also very, very strong overbought conditions. And that happens to be on the monthly and on the weekly, and the daily is very, very close to there. There is some sort of a chance that the gold will try to do maybe final run to flirt with this peak, maybe to complete another rally in the moving average divergence, but we are here around very, very strong zone that could easily hint that a corrective structure is coming there. So on the 4-hour chart, what we managed to see here is also some bearish divergence on the moving averages. Classical step would be break below the trend line or some wavings here, right? Like 2 waves down, 2 waves up, and a breakout. Of course, possible scenario here, again, as we discussed before, final rally to complete the daily divergence, to complete Another four-hour chart fake highs before it takes place. For those of you who love the short-term aggressive options, pay attention to the one-hour chart. If it completes some sort of a zigzag here while holding these peaks and breaks down, that could open the door for further move down. I believe gold would have direct. Impact the beginning of the week with everything happens in the Middle East, as I explained at the beginning of this video. So pay attention to this one, it could start to develop very interesting setups. That's it for this video. Thanks very much for watching. I hope you find value in this video, and if you did, please didn't— don't forget to hit this like button. If you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. And I want to take the chance and to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Get your access to our full trading courses, real-time trading education, and real-time trading opportunities we share during the week. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. Good weekend and good trading on the week ahead. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
