In this weekly Forex forecast, Vladimir Ribakov of the Home Trader Club reviews the major macro events of the previous week— a surprise 0.5% Fed rate cut, the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates unchanged with a stronger‑than‑expected vote, and the Bank of Japan’s modest 0.25% rate hike. He then outlines the key economic releases expected in the coming week, including Australia’s cash rate decision, PMI data for Europe, the US CPI/PCE and GDP reports, a speech by Fed Chair Powell, and Swiss rate expectations. The bulk of the video is dedicated to technical analysis and trade ideas for four major currency pairs: EUR/USD – bullish in the short term but approaching key Fibonacci‑derived resistance zones (61.8%/161.8% extensions) where bearish pressure may emerge; recommendation: stay long but watch for pull‑backs. GBP/USD – maintains strong bullish momentum, with the next target around 1.37‑1.40; strategy: buy the dips while monitoring the 61.8% Fibonacci extension for a possible slowdown. EUR/GBP – bearish outlook; sell‑the‑rallies approach supported by dynamic volume profile balance zones and bullish divergences on weekly/daily charts; expectation of continued downside toward the lower range. USD/JPY – after a corrective rally, the pair shows bullish divergence and is trading near the lower Bollinger Band; plan: buy the dips as long as price stays above the recent weekly low. Throughout, Ribakov references proprietary tools such as the KTLI indicator, dynamic volume profile, market‑strength snapshots, and standard technical constructs (moving averages, Fibonacci extensions, Bollinger Bands). The video concludes with promotional mentions of Eightcap Broker and an invitation to join the Home Trader Club for mentorship, courses, and real‑time trading opportunities.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, big thanks to Eightcap Broker for supporting our community to continue and enjoy our amazing offers with Eightcap Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club, the private mentoring session, trading strategies, indicator the short-term day trading sessions, use the link below this video in the description. Choose your offer, join, and enjoy. Quick fundamental view on what is coming this week, but before that, what happened during the last week. So it was a very busy week. The Federal Reserve cuts the rates, uh, just here by 0.5% while the expectation, the forecast, was showing 0.25%. Big move but not very surprising. The odds for that were increasing recently, and considering the fact that the elections are coming, they will have to— they will do what they actually have to do. The political pressure would not skip them as well. After that, what we saw is that you Key central bank, the Bank of England, continued to hold the rates as expected. But the interesting part, eight members voted to keep the rates while the expectations were only for seven, and the previous rate was actually four, only four. So that's pretty significant from my point of view, which the way I see that should continue and give the pound some boost to the upside. We will discuss about that, of course. Then in Japan, what happened? They hold the raise on a quarter percent, which makes sense. They did increase the Federal Reserve cuts. It's good for them. Why should they rush and cut more or increase more in that case? So it's absolutely normal, I would say. So this was the previous week. Again, lots of important things. The coming week. Would be also very important one with cash rate in Australia, with manufacturing, uh, the flash manufacturing and the flash services across Europe and the UK, uh, also the manufacturing services, uh, in PMI in the US. Then we have the speech in Japan from governor with the consumer confidence in the US on Tuesday. CPI follows in Australia, expected to show a great, uh, drop, I would say, or improvement, which should be enough to give, uh, the Australians a hope for further cut. Not maybe in this rate, but probably next one. Then we have the same, uh, pass in, uh, Switzerland, where they are expected to cut the rates by quarter percent. Of course, with the follow-up, with the following press conference and the policy, and the GDP in the US followed by a speech from Mr. Powell. And of course, this one, a big, big, big one, core PCE. That's one of the leading numbers, factors, data the Federal Reserve follows understanding what and where the probability for the next cuts. So now let's go to the charts. So the first instrument I want to cover today is the euro dollar. Following our previous week prediction where we discussed about it on the previous weekly forecast. We wanted to see one more drop before the cut, before it takes a rally. This drop happened to be here. Wasn't that deep. It didn't come to retest this zone, for example, but it was very, very close. It is holding this key level, as you can see here. This is our KTLI indicator, which shows you the important levels based on different time frames. And you can see how the 250 moving average, dynamic one, hold and push the price to the upside. In terms of numbers, the EUR/USD, the monthly chart is below 0.5% now while the last 7 days is over 1%. 24 hours didn't do much change, which usually means the rally starts to slow down. The monthly shrinks, decreases in the last couple of weeks. The 7-day is still there, but usually when such numbers come in play, uh, these— this is, by the way, the market strength snapshot. That's one of the features we have in Home Trader Club. And, uh, I believe the rally on the EUR/USD is there, will stay there, but it is coming to a place where a peak is getting very, very close before the reversal will take place. So technically speaking, the way that the euro dollar behaves right now, if we plot Fibonacci extension on the ongoing waves we have here, let me show it to you. Right. If we plot Fibonacci there, we got two key zones that the euro dollar is approaching. The first zone is right here. 61.8 and 161.8 extension where I believe we should start to see some first pressure, some bearish pressure on these 3 waves. I believe from there we should see some corrective movement and from there very possible to see the final rally towards the next Fibonacci-based level and that is right here. 100 with 261.8, which is right next to the supply zone we see on the weekly chart. So I believe the euro is doing something like that. Then it will very likely complete the weekly cycle and begin its deeper correction to the downside. So on the shorter term, for me, it is still bullish, continue the rally. However, I again, I do expect it to Slow down and around this zone to start. And you know, as we get there, right around this zone discussed to clean the previous highs, and from there at least some short-term pullbacks to follow. While for the longer run, there is a good probability that the euro dollar will complete its final run slightly higher before the. Major turnaround will take place. So this is my plan on the euro dollar. It was bullish; it remains bullish in the short term, but we are approaching to key levels where from I believe sell opportunity is going to perform. The next pair for today, the pound dollar, following our previous week or weeks in that case. Expectations we were talking about the probability the pound dollar one of the scenarios we analyzed of course will complete this corrective movement and start its rally to the next highs. So before the we continue with the charts, let's take a look on the numbers here. What did the pound dollar do? Compared to the euro, and as you can see here, the monthly is way above 2%. Seven days is close to 2%. That's still very very bullish unless sorry unlike the euro dollar we saw that starts to shrink. This one still maintains bullish momentum. That's why I believe the pound dollar is yet bullish. But I also think we are approaching to some key zones. I believe that as we get to these highs here and here and the 618 Fibonacci extension of the weekly chart, I believe the slowdown will start to happen eventually before we see the bigger correction taking place. Until then, my view was and remains bullish. I believe the pound-dollar is actually doing something like That. So on the short term, we could see the pound dollar making these corrections, but I do believe that the 137 after 140 is, is next destination for the pound dollar. So the way I see that with the current bullish momentum, the ongoing bullish momentum we have on the pound dollar, which broke above this ABCD line, gains momentum by making higher highs On the chart, higher highs on the MACD. No significant signs against, so buy the dips is still the plan I see for the pound dollar. I believe there is more to come, and as I said before, my longer term view here: we should see these waves taking place, some slowdown, pullback, and a final rally towards the 137, 130. 140. That's the zone. So for me, it is bullish. Now the last numbers we saw this week and in England kind of supported. Eight out of nine members believe it's not a good time to continue and cut the rates. I think it tells the story, and that's why the pound is still bullish. Let me know how do you see this one? Let me know in the comment section. The next pair for today, the euro pound. Following our one of our recent weekly forecasts where we wanted to see this rally taking place before the continuation to the downside. As you can see, the euro pound follows this plan. And if we go to the numbers on the euro pound, you can see the numbers support here in the trend snapshot. Clearly support the bearish view. One month above 1.5%, seven days shrinks a little bit together with the 24 hours, which means pullbacks could happen. But on the longer run, it's still bearish. We also carry our sell trade here in Home Trader Club with this sell, which is, as you can see, still ongoing. And I believe there is more to follow and more to come on the euro pound. Let's take a look on where these levels are likely to meet. We have few lows here on the weekly chart where I believe should be confirmed. Then I expect to see some bullish divergence building up on the weekly chart. Daily chart is very likely to follow the same logic with these waves. Probably we will see there a divergence as well, slowly forming, then pullbacks and further continuation until this bearish momentum actually ends. So technically speaking, the plan was and remains as we discussed: sell these rallies. We got this trend broken, we got the low broken, we are forming these waves right now, and the way I see the euro pound moving from here is still bearish. I believe the four-hour chart should also complete its waves until the four-hour, daily, and weekly will form and complete the bullish divergences, and only then we can talk about the sell. Take a look. Another very important thing that happened here is. I'll just show it to you. Is this dynamic volume profile? How beautiful this balance zone and the key level on daily chart hold and cause the euro pound to continue further to the downside. So I still believe we are in a bearish direction, and the weekly levels here, the weekly lows. the bottom of this huge range makes absolute sense to me as the final destination for the EUR/GBP. And the final one for today, the USD/JPY, follow-up on our last week discussion where we expected to see lows forming here with the bullish divergence and from there rallies to take place. That is exactly what happened with the USD/JPY and with all the recent actions, uh, from the cash rate decision, I believe dollar-yen has enough reasons to do some corrective movement here before it takes next dive to the downside. So what happens here? Dollar-yen now retests pretty strong demand levels on the weekly chart. Dollar-yen has a clean bullish divergence on The daily chart, which supports the assumption we are now moving in some corrective waves. Also, take a look on the Bollinger Bands here. It was riding more than 20 candles on the lower Bollinger Band without significant retrace, which is another reason why we are now in corrective movement. Last time it happened with the Bollinger on the bottom was here, and again, we all remember what happened. Since I don't expect it to happen now, I definitely expect expect the rallies to continue. Quick overlook on the numbers on the dollar-yen. By the way, we were trading this dollar-yen also this week in Home Trader Club, enjoying this bullish opportunity. I believe there is more to come. And also, if we take a look on the numbers, so the monthly going shrinks from very big negative numbers. Now it's below the 1% negative. 7 days is over 1% positive, and the 24 hours is also close to 1%, which usually means the bullish momentum is now taking over. On the 4-hour chart, we start to see some sequence of higher highs, higher lows. Some key resistances are awaiting, so I do believe that these rallies should face some drops and then further rallies to follow on the dollar-yen as long as we are above the most recent low we saw on the weekly chart. So the plan here is straightforward: buy the dips on the shorter term. That's how I see that. What do you think about this one? Share with us in the comment section. That's it for this video. Thanks for watching. I hope you enjoyed it. If you did, please hit the like button, and I want to invite you to Subscribe to our channel if you are new to this channel with the subscribe button below this video. Few words in the comments would be fantastic help. 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