Forex Weekly Forecast - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, GOLD XAUUSD - 15 April 2024 - By Vladimir Ribakov

Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club and welcome to the weekly forex forecast. In today's video we have the euro dollar, the euro yen, the pound dollar, and the gold. So let's begin. Before we start, big thanks and thumbs ups to Eightcap Broker for supporting me, my community, and this channel. To enjoy all the amazing offers we have with Eightcap Broker, including an access to Home Trader Club up to 1 year, private mentoring sessions, access to the trading systems, and the live trading room project which we start this week, please follow the link below this video in that description. If you have any questions Don't hesitate to contact me and to ask. Now let's begin. The first pair on the list is the euro dollar. I published a video with in my YouTube channel. If you missed this one, I published it this week. A quick follow-up and update on the euro dollar. Make sure you watch that on this very channel. Since then, the euro is already in ongoing momentum. So I want to follow up on the follow-up. And explain the analysis. So couple of weeks ago or so, we discussed about the euro dollar on the weekly forecast, and our plan was the following: after this expected bullish divergence which was created on the histogram, we expected to see a pullback and further continuation down. What happened with the euro dollar? It created. Pay attention to that because it's phenomenal technical signal. It created a three plus two. I love to call that wave strategy with a false break and divergence on the moving average. Absolutely amazing. Three waves to the downside. A B C D correction in two waves. False breakout, fake high here with a bearish divergence. While the market created a fake high attempt to make a high. Which instantly retraces. MACD completes a bearish divergence on the moving average, histogram, and the RSI. What happened since is history. Uh, we got a phenomenal, uh, break below this, uh, rising supportive line. We even got a signal on the lower time frame with this flip, the rising supportive line and the lower lows. From there, it's a huge dive to the downside, and the question is what is next with the euro dollar? So to answer this question, let's go back to the roots of the of this analysis. According to the analysis, we expected the euro dollar to complete ABCD or at least some sort of a range before the market will decide what is next. So this setup actually is in play, and the way it develops on the daily chart, we are in creation of the second leg. The 61.8 Fibonacci extension of these very legs here, right, was already, uh, let's say cleaned. Now the next key level in play is the 100% Fibonacci, which is also close to this strong demand area on the daily chart. And if it manages to go beyond that, then 161.8 Fibonacci will fit. Let me show it to you here and zoom out a little bit. There we go. It will show classically in a duplication of the Weekly legs and complete the weekly ABCD. So for me, the euro dollar is still under bearish pressure and a sell. What could happen at the beginning of the week because we are in some sort of oversold conditions, the euro will potentially try to make any pullbacks, but for me it's still sell the rallies. While the inflation in the US is holding and is still strong, in the Central Bank of Europe they already start to talk about the potential rates cut that it's coming. So, you know, one plus one usually equals two. The bearish pressure on the euro-dollar should remain here. Add to that the sensitivity between Iran and Israel that is happening. This weekend, and the fear of the Middle East war, or the, the fear that this situation will go and surpass beyond the borders of Iran and Israel, puts the, puts the, of course, the scare on the market. And that could also contribute to the weakness of the major pairs. Pay attention to another classical technical condition we have here. Three waves with the pullback that bounces right off a trend line. Again, it is a phenomenal combination. The bearish view is still on, and for those of you who are riding this one, just keep going and enjoy your trade. Of course, don't forget to do some management. So that's my view on the euro dollar. It was bearish; it remains bearish. Let me know how do you see this one and what would be your expectations. Share your thoughts in the comment section below this video. The next one would be the pound-dollar, but before that, I would like to ask your support. If you find value and you enjoy this video, you appreciate the trading opportunities and the knowledge I'm here to share with you, please hit this like button. Few words in the comment section would be a great support, and thank you very much in advance for taking your time, uh, to do so. Uh, also, if you are new to our channel, please consider to subscribe with the subscribe button Below this video, so you can enjoy all the trading opportunities and trading education I share with you in this channel. And thank you very much in advance for taking the time and to support. In one of our recent weekly forecasts, we discussed the pound dollar, and our scenario we were following—one of the scenarios—were the break of this ABCD corrective line. Now, as you can see, the pound dollar currently delivering this. Scenario exactly. And together with the euro dollar, it made 3 lower highs, lower lows, completed a bullish divergence, made a corrective structure of ABCD, finished with a divergence on a histogram flipping from positive to negative to lower positive again. Beautiful divergence on the RSI and a breakout. Usually one of my favorite setups because it delivers phenomenal risk-reward in play. The biggest question is what is next for the pound-dollar. So to make long story short, my bearish view remains on, and here is what I see. Just erase this line. Now here's what I see on the pound. Exactly like with the euro-dollar, I expected to see completing ABCD on the weekly chart, or at least some sort of a range here. Until it happens and completes, the view for me remains bearish. Now what happened here on the technical side on the daily chart is nothing less than phenomenal as well. This is the bearish divergence we see— higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on the indicator— and now it is developing 3 lower highs, lower lows on the daily chart while it is holding the massive supportive— or resistance in that case— balance zone based on the Volume Profile indicator. And if we take a look, I want to show you here some technical signs. Take a look on the Bollinger Bands. So I'm using here a custom Bollinger Band indicator of mine. Take a look, the classical combinations here. From this breakout below the Bollinger Band, if the bears are in control, the pound-dollar has a phenomenal target on duplication. First duplication is here. This area, why it's so strong? Because it is also a pretty major demand area on a daily chart. Okay, and the way that the highs and lows started to structure here itself, right? This is a very strong demand area in play, and the also after breaking this high, this low is low interest. All that is our major zone. So for me, the pound dollar wasn't remains bearish. I expected to continue lower to reach the duplication of the Bollinger Band as exactly like with the euro dollar on the short term. We could see some attempts for the bounce. But basically, I expect nothing else than a bearish continuation down. What would be your thoughts? Share with us in the comment section below this video. Then next one we have is the euro yen. Last week, our we talked about the euro yen and two scenarios I shared with you. One scenario was to go and sell the zigzag two waves down, two waves up, and breakout. As you can see, the euro yen delivers that exactly like the euro dollar. It does a phenomenal bearish divergence on the moving averages, RSI, and histogram. Classical breakout of this rising supportive line, and all the rest is history. What's next with the euro yen? It is making a sequence of lower highs, lower lows. Lower lows on the chart with lower lows on the indicator to complete bearish convergence, which for me simply means sell the rallies. If we take a look on the euro yen, here is a very interesting scenario it is building on the weekly chart. It has a bearish divergence on the weekly chart, which holds the 165 round number psychological number. If we go to the monthly chart, take a look what happens on the monthly chart. Overriding on the upper Bollinger Band right next to this key resistance. Absolutely phenomenal. As you can see, histogram starts to slow down as well. Classical condition overriding on upper 20 candles, more than 20 candles on upper Bollinger Band on a monthly chart without significant pullback. Last time it happened was here, and we all remember how this leg finished since then. So I expect us the euro yen to start and to make a strong bearish correction. A weekly chart is bearish divergence. Daily chart is bearish divergence. Four hour chart is making the waves as we saw. I expect the daily chart to complete a BCD correction. What we have here on the four hour chart. Is the lower highs, lower low structure. So sell the rallies, and I expect further continuation down. How deep could this one go? If we plot Fibonacci extension on the ongoing corrective waves, we will figure out that the 161.8, which is important level, is right next to the daily low, and that would be pretty much the logical First target zone for the euro yen on this move down. Beyond that, and we could see this major volume profile zone next to the next key demand area on the daily chart around the 158. So I was bearish. I remain bearish on the euro yen, and as long as that. Technical structure, um, holds itself, for me it's bearish. Your thoughts? Bearish? Bullish? Share with us in the comment section. And the final one is gold, which created all-time high above $2,400 and bounces back. So what does that mean? On the last week, one of the scenarios we were talking about Was exactly that to get the fake high, so the bearish divergence completes, and from there get the pullback. So take a look how everything looks like on the for the goal. If we plot the Fibonacci, sorry, the Bollinger Band duplication. If you remember, we discussed it on the last week. We discussed about two levels: Bollinger Band duplication one and two. We almost reached the second duplication. After the break of that level, which is phenomenal resistance zone. RSI is almost overbought on the weekly chart. Uh, if you go to the daily chart, we will see there overriding on the upper Bollinger Bands for over than 20 candles. What does that mean? Last time it happened was here on March 2023, and we remember the massive move down happened afterwards. So I do believe we are due to correction. And with that in mind, here is a very important thing you need to remember. If the situation between Iran and Israel goes to wrong places— I mean, war, how positive places it could go, right? But if it goes beyond the normal, as the West loves to call that, It could leak to worse places in the Middle East, and that could have an impact not just on the markets, also on gold. Gold for many is safe haven. In that cases, technical conditions are not important, and in that cases, gold could simply continue in making new high. However, as long as it holds the levels and the situation there is normal, under control, gold could start its corrective move. If it managed to break this low, make the lower lows on the chart and lower lows on the indicator, we could expect the gold to make some ABCD correction or to start making some sort of a range for a while. And then on the short-term plan would be sell the rallies. So for me, the trigger in that case would be break below this low, pull back ideally to retest this high which is the supply area, and from there start developing short-term sell opportunities. So for me, that's the trading plan on gold. And again, I want to say it is all as long as the condition currently, the situation in the Middle East is under normal or control. Okay, what will be your thoughts of the gold? Share with us in the comment section below this video. So thank you for watching this video. As always, I hope you find value of it, watching it. Please feel free to share with anyone who you believe can enjoy watching that and will benefit seeing these trading opportunities. 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