Forex Weekly Forecast: EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY & Gold Analysis | August 3–7, 2026

Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our new weekly forex forecast. Last week was all about the interest rate decision. While the Federal Reserve did not cut, did not hike, uh, and was pretty much hawkish in the, um, in the message they sent the market responded with strong anti-dollar moves. And the reason for that is that the market was so scared of everything. So the moves before the, uh, interest rate decision in the last week were actually, uh, with anticipation that a hike will happen very soon, or at least a, a clear plan to hike during summer, maybe September. Would be shared. And that was not the message from the Federal Reserve. The message was we still aim for 2%, we still are ready to act, but there is no specific timeline, uh, for actions. And when will the Federal Reserve act and hike the rates, if at all? Of course, that could happen, you know, it could change in the span of a week or, or, or less or more, uh, with the war, the ongoing war between Iran and the US, of course, and the affected prices on all around, not just the oil prices, but of course all of our life aspects. So a lot of things could happen, but the bottom line is currently the market is moving, and let's take a look where are the best opportunities are for us. But before the charts, I would like to remind you that we partnered with AvaTrade, one of the leading brokers in our industry. What does mean to you? That you can get absolutely unlimited access to Home Trader Club. So all you have to do, get your account with AvaTrade with the link below this video in the description or in the bio. Open your account, fund it, get access to Home Trader Club. Unlimited access. That means all of our trades, all of our educational courses, our comprehensive media zone, and our dedicated dedicated trading channels and groups where we share with you real-time trading opportunities, real-time education delivered to you, and you can get your access to our Trade Copier. Everything is available for you with the link below this video in the description or in the bio. So now let's take a look on the charts. Let's start with the euro dollar. So last week we were talking about the anticipation of the euro to drop down, complete a final low before the rallies take place. Alternative scenario we discussed, I honestly gave it low probability, but during the week everything changed and the bearish view didn't really deliver yet. But the alternative scenario we discussed about was to get this ABCD before the next sell-off. So it does form like ABCD right now. It didn't manage to drop the move down. The bearish view failed. So what does that mean right now? So while the higher time frames from my point of view is still bearish, I don't see too many positive things for the euro dollar for the long run. But right now, while the longer term still has to be established and restructure itself. On the shorter term, there are several very important levels which I would be looking to find opportunities for a sell. And we are talking about these highs where it's not only the highs— look how many you have on, on the horizon here, here, here— all of these highs are critical for the euro dollar. But it's not only the highs, it's also this volume profile balance areas. So I believe that these zones, as they hold should provide us opportunities for the sell. For that, I will go to the lower time frames like 4-hour and 1-hour chart. And what I would be looking at, for example, this zone, uh, is the completion here of the divergence. For example, something like that, right? Higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on the indicator MACD. Probably RSI would join the party there, and from there would be looking for possible sells. On the other hand, could that mean aggressive buys meanwhile? The answer is yes. Even though for the long run I am still bearish, on the short run the euro could actually go and push towards the discussed zone. We have these important levels, the previously created lows here, here, and the demand area, uh, broken resistance that now acts as a support, of course. The low here acts as a demand on all this range. As long as this price zone between 114.85-ish down to 113.90, 113.80, as long as this area holds, I believe the euro could push up towards the next key peaks we saw from a daily chart supply levels, and from there I would be looking for the sell. So this is my view on the euro dollar. Next one, let's talk about the pound dollar. So last week we identified this as the key zone, and as it holds, we expected to see the pound-dollar to push further down. The pound-dollar does that exactly— it pushes down. I was personally expecting it to reach a little bit lower than it did. However, after the push down, it did block with the bullish divergence, and that brings the question, what is next with this pair? So I said not once that for the long run I am bullish on the pound-dollar. I do expect the clearance above the 140. Does that mean this move started? Possibly. However, we will need more than that. This is a critical zone, and if it managed to break this range right now and hold above that, buy the dips could be actually a smart opportunity and good technical opportunity. Again, lots of things could change in the span of few days or weeks, especially with the war and the ongoing pressure, um, on the prices. But the bottom line is right now the last divergence available on the 4-hour chart is bullish, and right now the pound-dollar structured its sequence of higher highs, higher lows. That means as long as this low actually holds, I believe the drops here should lead for further run to the upside on the pound-dollar. I do think that we should go and retest the previous High at least, and maybe even much more than that. Take a look what we have here. We have this high and this high and this high as strong supply levels, and I believe with the pullbacks here, the pound-dollar should go and deliver this run towards until possibly we would later on get some divergence. So as long as the lows on the 4-hour chart hold, buy the dips would be my trading plan for this coming week. Next one, I want to talk about the pound-yen. Two or three weeks ago, we discussed about the pound yen and two scenarios were on our video. You can watch all these videos I'm talking about, of course, on our channel. So the first scenario was the break of this low. If it happens, we would be looking to sell the rallies. This low was never broken, and then then the market made a new high. Second scenario we discussed was actually get this high and turn it to be a fake high. Complete the bearish divergence. In our case, it happens to be overbought divergence, and from there look for the sell. So the second scenario is the one that the market follows. And the biggest question now: What is next? So I think well, that's a lot of lines. Let's remove them. So I believe the pound yen has a very high probability. First of all, look at this. Monthly developing divergence right at the peak of this zone. That's a very strong supply level, a lot of money is involved. So, and it is forming a divergence. This is a monthly chart. On the weekly chart, we have a divergence as well, plus it completes a beautiful evening star candle pattern at the weekly chart as well. And the daily chart bounces off its peak, breaking the most recent rising trend line, and that makes me think any pullback here should deliver further move to the downside. So I think the pressure is bearish. I think that this is a developing waving to the downside. Any pullback here to happen, I think the pound-yen has all the Reasons to continue its bearish pressure. So what are the key levels to pay attention to? Of course, the broken resistance that acts as a support right now, broken resistance that now acts as support and supply, and also the dynamic resistance line here. All these are key levels. As long as they hold, I believe pound yen is sell the rally. And the final one for today would be the gold. Last week we were talking about. Uh, the expectations for bearish continuation by making the sequence of lower highs, lower lows, and the break of this range. You can see that not much happened during the week, a little up, a little down. So the plan remains the same. If gold managed to break it down, I believe that could lead to the final drop. But it also has a little but here. We would need to pay attention to the daily low. There is a chance that this drop down would be like a clearance, which means it drops, it cleans, completes a bullish divergence, and from there be ready for the buys. So on the shorter term, I do think the pressure is still bearish. We do have a critical low here. It could be providing great liquidity zone here and for the buyers to step in the game. So I do expect this zone as a potential rejection. If it does not do that, then this weekly range around the $3,500 down to $30,000 is the critical, critical low. So it's either we're gonna see the bounce from the daily low, or if it drops further to the weekly range, then be ready for a significant rally once again. Meanwhile, my bearish view remains on, and it's either with the break of the range, I expect this move to happen, or completion of deeper ABCD and then the sell-off from the key highs. Okay, with both scenarios, I do expect the gold make the push down, complete the final drop and the divergence, and then be ready for the buys. So that's it for this video, and as always, I hope you find value in it. If you do, don't forget to smash this like button, and if you are new to our channel, make sure you subscribe for more trading ideas, education, and great trading tips and insights. I also want once again to invite you to our family, the Home Trader Club. Our full courses, real-time education, real-time trading opportunities shared with you. The link to join our family is below this video in the description. So thank you very much for your time watching. I wish you wonderful trading week ahead. Stay safe, all the best to you and yours, and I'll see you soon with more. So yeah, thanks again, all the best, good trading, and bye for now.