Vladimir Ribakov breaks down the week ahead for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and Bitcoin. U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at 130k, double what was expected, while CPI fell to 2.4% annually. He maps support and resistance levels, spots divergence patterns, and lays out conditional trade setups for each pair.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to another weekly forex forecast. What a week it was beyond any imagination. We had the non-farm payroll on Wednesday, which was postponed from the Last week, it was supposed to be last Friday. Respond to this Wednesday government things and all that. And the read was 130,000. Let's take a look here on the numbers: 130,000, which was almost double of the expectation. So when we analyze that, what happens to the job market when it was dropping, dropping, dropping, dropping suddenly? Oh man, especially during winter. So there are many different variations to this report. Maybe it was before the end of the year, uh, sales, holidays, whatever. But the bottom line, the job market shows better numbers than expected, which means maybe it's not so weak. And as we know, when the job market is not so weak, the Federal Reserve hesitates to cut the rates in the pace expected. So there are many political and geopolitical pressures and so on and so on and so on. I'm talking purely from the data. And then boom, on Friday, the CPI, the so much anticipated CPI report, which shows how the inflation Pressure is going in the U.S., and it shows. I wouldn't say amazing, much better rate, and we get closer to the target by the Federal Reserve, which is 2%. So while the previous rate was 2.7, this one on the annual rate is 2.4 by 0.3% improvement. Absolutely amazing from my point of view. And of course, the monthly rate was also. Core CPI was 0.3, which was a bit tricky. But the bottom line, it continues to improve. And the regular CPI on the monthly, it also improved. Dramatical changes. This week we will have, let's quickly review that. First of all, Monday is bank holidays, but then Tuesday, job market in Britain. Also CPI in Canada. Then we have rate decision in the in New Zealand, and on Wednesday the FOMC meeting minutes. Very important to listen to hear what will they actually say about the last decisions and give hint for the coming one. So now let's talk about the charts. Let's start with the euro. So last week we analyzed this scenario on the euro that we expect to see further run to the upside. As you can see, nothing happened during this week. It was going flat most of the days. And it's usually a sign that something is about to happen. And we have 2 scenarios here. One, it actually breaks, explodes, and completes This run, which is very expected, and then we should have daily divergence complete, weekly divergence complete, and from there we can talk about the sun. So this would be classical scenario on the euro dollar. But also we need to pay attention to this low. If it managed to break it down by more than one wave, which is currently building up more than one wave, right? And place itself below this volume profile zone. This would be a good reversal sign, and then we can talk about actually sell the euro. So not much changed since the last week of the discussion. The trading plan remains the same, and the levels I would be paying attention to is, of course, let's go to the 4-hour chart. Should be more visible here. We have the broken resistance, acted as support here and here, and of course the low from the daily chart. These are the Key levels from my point of view. If they manage to hold, the euro is expected to push to the upside, and only if it breaks below the daily low, which I mentioned before, then we can talk about the sell. So to summarize the EUR/USD, uh, basically I expect to see, as long as this low holds, every drop here, uh, should lead for further, uh, uh, run to the upside while the euro is expected to complete some bearish divergence here, which would be aligned with the daily and the weekly chart before the sellers take the control. Next, and for the sell view, which is very early at the moment, I want to see this low broken with more than 2 waves. Only then we can talk about sell the ZARADIES. Next one, pound-dollar. So what do we have on this one? I think it's similar to the euro dollar, and I believe the pound dollar should complete this final run until it will actually go and complete the bearish divergence on the daily chart together with the weekly chart. So if we go with on the quickly on the weekly chart, this is the main zone that yet to be retested. There is a tricky part here as we already see divergence potentially developing, but there were no completed reversal signs on the daily chart. Which makes me think there is a little bit more to come here before it completes that weekly and the daily divergences and then reverses. So from my point of view, the bullish pressure is not over, and I believe the pound dollar, as long as this zone holds, should push to the upside. What could happen? Is it goes in some sort of like ways like that before it actually explodes? This is a possible scenario. And for the sales, which I at the moment do not give more than 30% probability, similar to the euro dollar, only if it breaks and holds below this low, we can then talk about sell the rallies. So to summarize the pound dollar, as long as this zone holds. You can also see not just it is the recent swing lows in this bullish structure, but it's also a beautiful area here with a volume profile balance and tons of transactions happen to go through this area. And I believe as long as it holds, the pound-dollar should make the final push to the upside. Maybe retest the highs here, maybe even beyond that. And only if it breaks this low with more than one wave, then we can talk about sell the rallies. Next one is the pound yen. I love what happens here, technically speaking, and here is why. On the monthly chart, we are bouncing off 215, which is a round number, 215. And we have these highs as a supply level. Beautiful 3 waves on the monthly chart, which now builds a bearish divergence. And if that's not enough, we can go to the weekly chart, but also, of course, the daily chart. And look what happens here. First of all, take a look on the weekly chart. This is a significant sign. Look at this major engulfing. After several weeks in a row, we saw these upper spikes. This is a major engulfing, very, very strong sign. RSI is bouncing from 80 over bought conditions. And on a daily chart, I love this structure as we have fake high under bearish divergence condition. And now we are making lower lows on the chart and lower lows on the MACD histogram, which is a strong technical sign. Short-term bounces are welcome, but I believe the pound-yen is ready for the sell. So a quick summary on the pound-yen. After flipping these swing higher highs, higher lows, now we are making lower lows for the first time of very long run. I believe this is preparing the ground to sell the rallies, and on the shorter term, we can see broken support Axis resistance, another support axis resistance. As long as this zone holds, I believe the pound yen has more to offer to the downside. While I believe it should clean the low of 207 and then maybe retest the beautiful resistance around the 205. The final one for today would be the Bitcoin. Um, I can also, uh, of course you can wonder where is the gold, but on gold, my view did not change since the last week. The levels are absolutely the same. So I just skip it on this one. And Bitcoin, very interesting. I had a lot of conversation during the week about this one for some reasons. Was there a bottom? So as I covered the last week, I Do not think it's over. I think we enter a key zone, yes, and but I think the bottom is yet to be formed, which means the Bitcoin to me is still under bearish pressure. The short-term bounces upside are welcome, but then I think it is still sell the rallies. Falling trend line, broken support, active resistances. Every pullback here, pay attention to also potential. bearish hidden divergence, lower highs on the chart, higher highs on MACD histogram, could provide the next sell opportunity. So for me, the Bitcoin is still under the bearish pressure. We have, we broke the beautiful support. Now it acts as resistance. Same here and here, of course. We have the falling trend line and every pullback here should be another sell opportunity. Watch for the condition of a hidden divergence when we have lower highs on the chart. Higher highs on MACD histogram, bearish hidden divergence or inverted divergence, and from there looking for further bearish continuation. I can also follow the 4-hour chart to complete this ABCD for the sell or get us in some sort of a range breakout and then a sell. For me, the bearish pressure was And remains the dictating scenario, the dictating market sentiment at the moment. That will be it for this video. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask in the comment section, of course. And if you enjoyed this video and the trading opportunities, please don't forget to hit this like button. And if you are new to our channel, make sure you subscribe to enjoy all the amazing opportunities we share with you. here during the week and all the educational content we upload here. So thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. And I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Enjoy your access to our full comprehensive courses, real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities, so much more. Follow us with the link below this video in the description. Best to you and yours. I wish you a wonderful week ahead and good trading. I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now. Bye.
