In this weekly forex forecast, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club reviews recent macro developments and provides technical analysis for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and Gold. He highlights a US Supreme Court decision striking down former President Trump's tariffs as illegal, noting the potential for ongoing trade policy conflict, and points out a surprising slowdown in US advanced GDP (1.4% vs. 2.8% expected). He then examines each instrument: - EUR/USD: broken range, volume‑profile balance zone, dynamic 200/50 MA support; possible bounce to 1.22‑1.24 or deeper test of 1.147‑1.1470; bullish divergence on 4‑hour chart as a buy signal. - GBP/USD: similar range retest, strong volume‑profile zone; key daily low and rising trendline; bullish divergence on 4‑hour chart as a buy‑the‑dip opportunity, but break of daily low could trigger longer‑term sells. - GBP/JPY: weekly bearish divergence, large engulfing candle, broken support now acting as resistance; supply zone and volume‑profile balance zone suggest continued downside pressure. - Gold: overbought on higher timeframes, geopolitical risk (Iran, Russia‑Ukraine) plus US political uncertainty; major supply zone identified; overall bearish bias unless the zone breaks. Ribakov also promotes his blog (VladimirRibakov.com) and the Home Trader Club, offering free trial access, educational resources, and trading opportunities. He ends with holiday greetings and a call to like, subscribe, and join the community.
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What's up, guys? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. A big week with a lot of data is behind us, but the main event happened right before the weekend where the Supreme Court of the US basically strikes down Trump's tariffs, claiming it was done illegally, uh, without the approval of the Congress. Boom! A big bomb on the market. Trump fires back, global 10%, uh, tariffs, uh, all around the world, not specific numbers, which according to the Supreme Court is problematic. I think that this fight is far, far from ending. And it will be very interesting to see the next steps, and I am sure that they will fight back the tariffs. This is his main, I would say, economical line, financial understanding and belief. He claims that this is what will make US recover. Numbers don't lie; it actually brings a lot of money in the US. However, According to the last data on last Friday, let me show you. We can see that the advanced GDP read was 1.4%, while the anticipation in the market was 2.8%. And the revised back of the previous read was to 4.4%. This is a huge decline. It's a big drop. And isn't the economy performing really good? If so, why it slowly starts to shrink or grow slower than expected? So a lot of questions remain unanswered. All these tariffs war will get more and more interesting. So what do we have on the charts? Before that, I would like to invite you or to remind you that in our blog VladimirRabakov.com, we upload for you a lot of Trading opportunities, market analysis, great articles. You can also go here to the Forex Education, enjoy and download free books, free tools, enjoy our beginners and advanced guides. You can enjoy the strategies here and so much more. So make sure you check the link below this video in the description. Let's talk about the EUR/USD first. So the last week on the EUR/USD, we were talking about the Option that we should see the euro bouncing to the upside. Not much really happened during the week. It started a little bit with the rally, then dropped, and slowly, slowly, slowly it was creating this second leg. And the biggest question now is what and where the euro goes from here. So most of the times, unless something unexpected happens. The momentum continues in a way until it will start to build up a bullish divergence. So I'm not sure that the current short-term pressure is over. However, what to pay attention to at the moment? So we have this broken range on the euro dollar, which is now retested. And we also have this volume profile balance zone, which actually holds dynamic 200 moving average, which is there together with the 50 moving average. That's a very strong strong dynamic supportive area. As long as this zone holds, the euro can try to find the bottom here and start its rally back to 122, 124, maybe even beyond. However, there is always the possibility that the euro is going to clean this low, ideally even this low here around 114. Here, 114.70-ish. And if it managed to break it down below these areas, then sell the rallies becomes as a very, very high probability setup. Because I want to remind you here on the weekly chart, we start to see some slowdown signs and that's undeniable. So there is a Really interesting scenario coming out. I believe that as long as the zone we saw from the daily chart holds, these drops should provide some opportunities for the rally. Only breaking the daily structure, and then we can talk about longer-term sells. So the way I see the euro-dollar. Uh, is once again break of this range, volume profile zone, uh, dynamic 200 moving average. All these are very, very strong supportive areas, and the euro can try to find its bottom during the week and start to fight back and rally. And breaking below the key lows we have on a daily chart then should open the door for the sells. On the 4-hour chart, look for the completion of lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the MACD to complete a bullish divergence. That should be a great buy sign. Or alternatively, if the euro managed to break above this range and start to make new sequence of higher highs, higher lows, then look to buy the dips. Next one for today, the pound-dollar, which also follows the direction of the euro. But very interestingly, the pound did not manage to clean the peak above the 1.40 and starts to complete a bearish divergence on the weekly chart. It did not yet change the price structure on the daily chart, not the 4-hour chart at the moment, which Similar to the euro dollar, has still 2 options here. First, the broken, this broken range now comes for the retest. We still have this massive volume profile zone. If it will manage to hold, the pound can start fighting back and climb the peak. However, I will definitely be paying attention to this low and the rising supportive line. That's where with high probability we should see the fight between the buyers and the sellers taking it to the next level. But breaking below these levels should open the door then to sell the rallies for the longer term with the weekly divergence. So here is what I would be looking for. We discussed about this daily low and the trendline we just saw there. If the pound managed to complete these waves down to this area, look for the condition of a bullish divergence, which means lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the indicators. That means from this zone, we might see the pound dollar fighting back and pushing it to the upside. But if it does complete the break of the daily low and the trend line within these waves, then after these retraces, which we expect to see, Look to sell the opportunities. So to summarize the pound-dollar, for me, uh, this daily low and the rising trend line we have on the pound-dollar are the key levels. And if we go to the 4-hour chart, this is the zone where I would be looking to see the pound Completing a bullish divergence. So that means lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the MACD indicator, and from there look for opportunities to buy. And after these rallies take place, then I would be looking to sell opportunities. Again, if the daily low managed to break in a trendline, of course, that's a very good sign in my trading plan. for the coming week. Next one for today is the pound yen. We have our bearish divergence. And the last week, we were talking about the scenario that we would be looking to rally and from there the sell. So I want to go around it because the rally happens during the week. What is coming next? So once again, weekly chart. We have a major bearish divergence. And look at this engulfing here. Let me just mark it for you. Look at this major engulfing here. Okay, zoom in. You can see that beautiful candle engulfs many candles, many wicks of the previous candles. And on a daily chart, we actually see the Bollinger Band making the lower lows. As well. But it's a great structure which makes me think the bearish move is yet to continue. What to pay attention to? Broken support now acts as resistance, and we have the volume profile balance zone here and the high and the whole range as the supply zone. As long as this area holds, for me, the pound-yen is under the bearish pressure and going south. So, um, once again, the way I see the pound yen is bearish with the weekly engulfing and the bearish divergence. This is the bearish divergence we have. This is the major engulfing at the top. On the daily chart, we actually changed the structure by making lower Lows, both the chart and the MACD histogram flipping from negative to positive to lower negative. RSI also makes its lower highs, lower lows. And for me, that simply means that this broken support now acts as resistance. This range here and the high acts as the supply. And as long as this area holds, I believe the pound yen should push lower to the downside. And the final one for today is the gold. But before the charts, I want to invite you to our Home Trader Club in case you watch this video for the first time, of course. Then just go to home trader club.com, scroll down, or just click here to join, register for absolutely free for the first 2 weeks. You can explore the package, what we have inside, and enjoy some great content there for you. So go to home trader club.com or follow the link below this video in the description and Join us. You can register for absolutely free. So what is happening with the gold? This one is still flirting with the over, absolutely overbought, historically overbought conditions. Of course, the geopolitical situation and now politically in-house in the US put the pressure. The war, the expected war with Iran and on Ongoing war in Russia and Ukraine, of course, puts their own pressures, but the overbought conditions are there and are screaming. So what for me it means still look for the sell opportunities, and there are couple of options that it it might follow. First of all, this could turn to be the range, and if it managed to hold it and break it down below, that's a really good sign for the sell. But also pay attention to this major zone here. Let me. Zoom in a little bit, and I'll circle it for you. Here, look at this zone. This is a critical area. Why? Well, first of all, it's still holding the broke the supply and the broken the created not broken resistance still holds. But also look what happens here. Why it's so important? Because where the sellers started to take the control, then for the next following. Several candles, they were accumulating the sell position. Boom! Before it actually crashed. So this is a major inner zone, sell zone, supply zone. As long as all this area holds, for me that means that the pressure is still bearish and I believe that gold should find the setups for the sell. So again, The way I see the gold with all the higher time frame overbought conditions, with this major supply zone, as long as this area holds, I believe the pressure on the gold is still bearish despite the recent rally and despite everything happens. And if this zone would not hold, then of course We'll have to reanalyze. But for me personally, this is still under the bearish pressure. And as long as it holds, I believe from there we should see the push to the downside gaining the momentum. That's it for this week. As always, I hope you find value in this video. Make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel if you did. And once again, I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Enjoy the courses, the real-time education, and the trading opportunities we share during the week. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. And I'll see you soon with more. Wishing you good trading. And to all those of you who celebrate Ramadan Mubarak and Happy New Chinese Year, all the ones who celebrate that. So guys, best to you and yours. And I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now. Bye.
