In this weekly market forecast, Vladimir Ribakov opens with a humanitarian greeting before outlining the macro backdrop that shaped the past week: the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, a sharp rally in oil prices, Ramadan observances, and a surprising negative US non‑farm payroll report of -92,000 jobs. He argues that these factors increase pressure on the Federal Reserve and could delay aggressive rate cuts. Ribakov then moves into detailed technical analysis for four major assets. For EUR/USD, he notes a bearish MACD divergence on the 4‑hour chart, a developing lower‑high/lower‑low channel, and outlines two scenarios: a corrective ABCD range offering sell‑the‑rally opportunities near the 1.14‑1.15 zone, or a continuation of lower lows that could trigger a bullish divergence and buying chance. For GBP/USD, he highlights a false breakout, a hidden bearish divergence, and a 50/200 moving‑average cross, suggesting short‑term sell‑the‑rally trades at broken support‑turned‑resistance and a longer‑term bearish bias. Gold (XAUUSD) is examined through a broken trend line and supply zone around $4,900‑$4,850; Ribakov presents a primary bearish path toward $4,500‑$4,400 and a less likely bullish restructuring scenario. The S&P 500 is shown forming lower highs and lower lows, with broken resistance near 6,400 and support around 6,100, indicating a corrective bearish phase before the next rally. Throughout, Ribakov intersperses promotional calls to join the Home Trader Club, emphasizing access to courses, semi‑automated systems, and a community of traders. The video concludes with a reminder to like, subscribe, and comment.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. What a week it was. It started with the war in the Middle East, big attacks on Iran, big effect on the oil prices, which was rallying like Crazy on the last days, and before all the charts, couple of things. First of all, I want to hope, I want to wish, and I hope for peace, and that innocent people do not suffer from all that. Second, it's Ramadan month, so for all those of you who celebrate, I want to wish all the best to you and your families as well. And now. What and how all the recent events affect the market. It ended up on Friday with dramatic, from my point of view, read on the non-farm payroll. -92,000. Not just the job market did add a small amount of jobs. There was the negative read. 92,000 jobs were lost. That's a very bad read. Of course, you can say it's only one time, one month, and so on and so on. However, with the recent pressure, the tariffs, the war, the inflation that still didn't go anywhere, and so on and so on, the fact that the job market enters the negative zone is a real concern. What will the Federal Reserve do? The pressure on him now is serious. They were talking about new Federal Reserve, that he will be cutting the rates fast. This kind of data would definitely tie his hands, tie the Federal Reserve hands and make it double thinking. Is it time to cut? So Let's talk about the charts and all the trading opportunities we have. The first one for us, the euro dollar. So before the charts, I would like to take the opportunity and to remind you, especially if you are new to this channel and our community, that when you join the Home Trader Club, you get your access to our complete educational courses, to our trades that we share during the week, to all the complete comprehensive media zone, our marketplace, our semi-automated trading systems, so much more. So join our family with the link below this video in the description. And now the euro dollar. So the last, last week I did not publish the video. But couple of weeks ago, one of the scenarios we were talking about is the euro dollar to push down below the recent low, and then we can actually start talking about sell the rally. So the current scenario on the euro dollar is very interesting. This bearish divergence kicks in. I wanted to see the euro dollar crossing the last highs, but it was not strong enough to do so. So the question is, is that over? So I don't think so, but definitely on a short term, the momentum shifts. And on the 4-hour chart, you can see how the euro dollar is building its sequence of lower highs, lower lows, and it is fully aligned with the indicator's read— lower highs, lower lows there as well. So the momentum is currently very bearish, and there are 2 scenarios I want to see on the euro dollar. Scenario 1, the bearish one, is we got some corrections, either ABCD or some sort of a range. There is a bearish channel developing here, so if the prices get close to the peak of that area, we should be looking for the sell. There is this little range which acts as the supply here and of course the bigger range here with the balance zone based on the volume profile. And as long as these levels hold, these rallies should be providing sell opportunity. On the other hand, what could happen with the euro dollar is we are going to clean these lows, the major lows from the daily chart, and that Should provide us then the opportunity to start looking for the buys. So if this is the scenario that follows first, lower lows are created, then at the end of these three legs, I would be waiting to see a bullish divergence: lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the MACD. To start and then look for the buys. So the bottom line about the euro dollar couple of scenarios we follow scenario one the ideal one we got the ABCD or some range correction here we have a falling trend line and a channel and the closer we get to the peak the stronger the pressure from the euro dollar to push down towards the zone of 115, 114. Alternatively, if that becomes just a little range and we see the euro dollar making final drop to the downside, then look for these conditions of lower lows on the chart, higher lows on the MACD, and from there look for the buy opportunities. Next one is the pound dollar. So what do we have on the pair? Couple of weeks ago we were talking about the expectations to see the pound-dollar after the retraces to make one more drop down to clean this low. The pound-dollar completes that, but the question is what's next? So the interesting scenario right now, there is a full synchronization between the chart and the indicators, which means the sellers are in control. Add to that, the fact that the pound-dollar also, like the euro-dollar, completes— you can see this false break by our indicator— completes the false breakout with the bearish divergence here. This is a strong sign that we actually might see corrective moves. Last time a false break happened was here under the bearish divergence, and a big move down developed. So is the pound-dollar going to follow the same path? Very, very possible scenario. So the The way it develops on the 4-hour chart, for me, it looks like sell the rallies. What levels to pay attention to? Broken support acts as resistance. Last high acts as the supply. And of course, this high as well. These are the key levels on the horizon to pay attention to. The stronger and the closer this rally to the levels mentioned, and we should be looking for the sell opportunities there. Pay attention to a possible scenario of lower highs on the chart and higher highs on the MACD histogram that will complete a bearish hidden divergence that hints sell. Another strong technical sign is the cross of the 50 and the 200 moving average with the bearish slope developing and the higher timeframes hint for the sell with the bearish divergence, a very strong sign. That could actually lead the pound dollar to sell the rallies. On the short term, there is a chance we're gonna see these retraces building up at least the beginning of the week. Sell the rallies for the longer run is the plan. So the bottom line from my point of view on the pound dollar on the shorter term, yes, we could see these bounces. To retest the cross of the two moving averages, the 50 and the 200, to retest the broken support that acts as the resistance. We have one here as well. But for the longer run, I believe the pound dollar with the pressure from the weekly bearish divergence and the structure lower highs, lower lows on the four-hour chart, the longer term should be sell. The run. Next one, let's talk about the gold. Couple of weeks ago on the last weekly forecast published here, we were talking about the gold. As long as it holds this area, look oopsie, look for the sell opportunities to take place. And the gold so far holds this supply area and provides a drop down. The biggest question is what's next? Two scenarios. That I see on the gold, especially as you can see here, this broken trend line is now holding. So scenario number 1, we come to retest, it holds, it builds some range, breaks it down, and makes the push to the next key lows— oops— to the next key lows on the horizon. We have the 4,900 down to 4,850. And of course, all the area around the 4,500, 4,400. That's the key levels where the gold can actually aim. And second scenario, less likely at the moment, but could still kick in, is that the gold starts to create the next high. In that case, we will be following for the next scenario, higher highs on the chart, lower highs on the MACD, and once complete from there, looking for the sell opportunities. And on the 4-hour chart, if that happens, it will actually look like the gold will restructure the higher highs, higher lows, and then it's a hint for the rally until the next high is cleaned, and from there a sell. As long as it did happen, for me the bearish scenario is on. To summarize, the gold couple scenarios we follow. Scenario 1, as long as this high hold, this highs hold, look for this as a possible range. If it managed to break it down, then I believe the gold is heading down to retest the previous key lows we have on the 4-hour chart. If the gold restructures the sequence of Higher highs, higher lows. In that case, I believe gold is back to bullish pressure to clean the daily high before it will turn around for a bigger bearish move afterwards. And the final one, the S&P 500. The last days of the week were very red on the, uh, on all the major stocks. It's a big drop down. The question is, is it over? The bullish run is over. I don't think for long term it is. I think though we are in some logical, both technically and fundamentally, retrace down before probably next rally will kick in. And with this idea in mind, look what the daily chart just did for that. Couple of false breakout fake highs and retrace down. The wage is breaking to the downside right now. Golds sorry S&P started to create the lower highs, lower low structure, which from my point of view means as long as these high holds, I believe the S&P is heading. Down to the next key levels. So we have this zone around the 6,500, this range, and the broken resistance from 6,400 down to 6,200. And there is broken resistance that could act as support around the 6,100. So from my point of view, the S&P entered the bearish, um, Momentum, the bearish pressure. As long as the last high holds, any retraces here on the short term could provide and should provide a sell opportunity. So the bottom line for the S&P, the way I see that the long-term run is not over. On the short term, I believe we entered the corrective moment, corrective cycle. This wedge was broken down, so I believe that these current lower highs, lower lows hint that we are going in a bearish direction, and I believe that we should be heading down to 6,500, then 6,462, and the broken resistance from the weekly chart that act as the support now around the 6,100. What do you think about the S&P? Let me know in the comments. So that's it for this video. As always, I hope you find value in this And if you do, don't forget to hit this like button and to subscribe to our channel if you are new to here. And once again, I want to invite you to our family, the Home Trader Club. Get your access to our courses, tools, systems, indicators, books, section of medias on full courses, so much more. The family is waiting for you. The link is below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. Stay safe, be well, and I'll see you soon with more good trading.
