In this weekly market commentary, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club reviews recent macro developments—particularly a surprising negative U.S. non‑farm payroll (NFP) report—and their implications for Federal Reserve rate policy. He argues that the data may keep the Fed from cutting rates and could even lead to further hikes, setting the backdrop for upcoming price action. Ribakov then provides detailed technical analyses for four key instruments: 1. EUR/USD – The pair has been trending down, with a potential pullback that could lead to further downside. He highlights MACD bullish divergence on the moving average, volume profile balance zones, and specific 4‑hour support/resistance levels as sell opportunities. 2. GBP/USD – Two scenarios are presented: a longer‑term view that the pair could retest and break the monthly high above 1.42, and a shorter‑term view dominated by a weekly bearish divergence that may produce corrective structures (ABCD or range) before another downside move. Key horizontal resistance levels are identified for potential short‑term sells, while range lows could offer buying chances. 3. Gold – A bullish divergence is observed across price, MACD, and RSI, with a mini‑wedge breakout to the upside. The 4‑hour and 1‑hour charts show higher highs and higher lows, supporting a "buy‑the‑dip" approach as long as recent lows hold, with broken resistance levels serving as entry points. 4. Bitcoin – Both weekly and daily charts display bullish divergences, yet the lows remain uncleaned, suggesting only short‑term bounce opportunities. Ribakov expects further downside continuation in the longer run, warning that multiple fake lows are typically needed before a true bottom forms. Throughout, Ribakov promotes the Home Trader Club’s partnership with AvaTrade, the trade copier service, and invites viewers to join via links in the description, contact him on Telegram, or subscribe for more educational content. He concludes by encouraging comments on the analyses and suggestions for future instrument coverage.
Chapters
Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. A lot of great opportunities are ahead of us on the coming weeks, especially after the non-farm payroll showed some surprising results in a negative way and boosted the market with the expectation that the Federal Reserve after all would not cut would not be able to hike the rates and maybe even cut the rates. Time will tell if that's the true story, but the technical opportunities are there. So let's take a look on the charts and all the interesting things we have. But before that, I would like to remind you that we partnered with one of the leading brokers in our industry, AvaTrade, which means for you, you can get unlimited access unlimited access to Home Trader Club. Enjoy all of our features, our trades, our videos, our courses, and of course our comprehensive media zone. And you can also of course enjoy our trade copier, a new project we started with AvaTrade in March. Join us with the link below this video in the description, and once you are in, make sure you contact me by Telegram. You can find the link to that Also, it the description. So let's start with the euro dollar. In the last weekly forecast I published, I think it was about two weeks ago, our plan was to see the euro dollar pushing down until it completes. The drop and then some bullish divergence on the moving average of the MACD. So the euro dollar pretty much follows the path. But the biggest question is: Is it over? At the moment, the way it develops, I have my doubts. This kind of price action usually is not in favor of trend changes. That makes me think that after some pullback that we are very likely experience here. The euro should push further down. And if we go to the 4-hour chart, here are some of the key levels to watch. Of course, the high which acts as supply and the broken support that acts as the resistance. Slightly above that, we have the next broken support that acts as resistance and the high that acts as supply. We also have major volume profile balance area. So if the euro dollar managed to hold this zone I would be looking for sell opportunities from there. Next one is the pound dollar. The last time we got this weekly forecast was about two weeks ago. I think we were talking about the zone where we expect the pound dollar to make the final push to the downside, and after that we expected to see the pound dollar making some waves to the upside. Correction and then push to the upside. So the biggest question is that, oh, is the bearish run over for the pound-dollar? So I want to break it down to 2 different, uh, uh, views. One for the longer run. For the longer run, I believe the pound-dollar has all the reasons to make another high and clean this monthly high above the 1.42. This is my view for the long run. On a shorter run though, there most likely gonna be more and more fights. And the reason for that is we have a weekly bearish divergence. That means that usually the market goes to one of the 2 corrective structures, either deep ABCD or some sort of a range. If we are within the range, that means that these rallies should still provide further move to the downside. And this is exactly how I expect to see the pound dollar. So based on what it will open, the market will open the week. Here is what I would be looking at: the bearish scenario. If we get this push to the upside, complete a bearish divergence on the moving average of the MACD, I would be looking for the key highs. As you can see, we have several. We have this high. These highs and these highs all are acting as dynamic— not dynamic, sorry, horizontal resistance levels and supply levels where the sellers took the control in the previous bearish push. So if this is how the, um, price structure forms in the beginning of the week, complete this run with bearish divergence, I would be looking to sell from there. If the pair first of all bounces backwards, I would be looking for this range and the low here and here as opportunities to buy on the shorter term, expecting the second leg up. So imagine 1, 2, until it will complete the divergence, and then look for the sell As in the first scenario, so these are the two specific plans I have for the coming week. Maybe it will take more than a week, but that's what I'll be looking for on the pound dollar. What do you think about this one? Let me know in the comments. And now let's talk about the gold, one of the favorite instruments around the world. We were expecting to see these drop to the downside where from. we are looking for a bounce to the upside. So we can see that this area holds and the bullish divergence forms— lower lows on the price, higher lows on the MACD. Between the recent 2 lows, we also have RSI divergence, which is a strong sign by its own. This mini wedge also breaks to the upside. And the interesting part here is that the 4-hour chart and the 1-hour chart— you will see that both are forming some sequence of higher highs, higher lows. While we are breaking above this high, higher highs on the chart, higher highs on the MACD histogram and the RSI. That makes me think that the gold is currently under bullish pressure, and as long as the recent low holds, I would be looking to buy the dips with very high probability to see the gold going to retest the previously created highs, or at least that's not the one. Let's go to the daily chart, or at least these. Falling dynamic resistance line that we have here on the week— on the daily chart within the falling channel. So for me, gold is buy the dips. And if we go to the 4-hour or the 1-hour chart, you can use the broken resistances, 1, 2, as your potential levels to look for the buys. And then of course the lows here and the dynamic supportive line. Any pullback toward these levels should be a great opportunity to to start looking for the buys. And the final one for today is gonna be Bitcoin. Is it over? Is this drop down over? So the weekly chart forms a bullish divergence, the daily charts form a bullish divergence as we will see in a moment, but these lows are still not cleaned. So I do believe we should see some bounces. I don't think the move down is over. And to be more specific, if we go to the daily chart, we also have this bullish divergence. But again, with the way that the price structures and with the slow reaction at the moment, I think that this is nothing more than a pullback before further continuation down. So yes, on the shorter term we could expect these pullbacks to happen, but for the longer run I don't think it's over. Usually it takes more Than one fake low to form a bottom. So I think there is more to come before we can actually call it a bottom and flip for the longer run. So on a shorter time, I believe bounces are possible just to provide further sell opportunity. What do you think about the Bitcoin? Let me know in the comments. That's pretty much it for this video. As always, I hope you find value in the trading opportunities and you enjoy them. If there are any interesting instruments you would like me to cover for that during the week or for the next video, let me know in the comment section as well. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask, of course, and feel free to reach me out. You have my Telegram on the bottom or support@hometraderclub.com and ask our team anything you need. If you enjoyed this video and want to enjoy more of our trading opportunities and education, make sure you subscribe to this channel with the subscribe button below this video. Once again, I want to invite you to our family, the Home Trader Club, where you will enjoy all the access to the courses, real-time trading education, and trading opportunities shared with you in our dedicated channel. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.
