Vladimir Ribakov forecasts bearish moves for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, and Bitcoin this week, citing divergences and false breakouts. He targets gold near $3,350-$3,500 and Bitcoin toward $30,000, recommending a sell-the-rallies strategy until bullish signals emerge.
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Hey guys, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. It's been about a month since the last weekly forecast we published on the channel, and a lot of things happened on the chart. Many of them delivered a beautiful move as expected. You will see in a moment, uh, and the biggest question is what's coming next. There are very interesting opportunities and levels that are forming right now on the chart on the major instruments. But before the charts, I would like to remind you that we teamed up with AvaTrade, one of the biggest, the most leading brokers globally with tons of regulations, which means you can get your unlimited access to Home Trader Club and all of our projects and features, including— yes, including the Trade Copier. All you have to do is to follow the link below this video in the description. Follow these steps: registration, deposit. Just make sure you contact me after you are there and get your unlimited access to Home Trader Club with all of our project. Why AvaTrade? Here are all the reasons, all the regulations. Simply, it's one of the most leading globally brokers, uh, top-rated brokers. So make sure you join. And enjoy. So the last week was super quiet, super quiet on the markets until Friday, and then we got this non-farm payroll report, still below 200,000 read, but still strong enough job market, which increased the fear, I would say, uh, from the market that the Federal Reserve not just would not be able to cut the rates as so many investors and traders did hope at the beginning of the week— but at the beginning of the year, sorry— but actually would be forced to hike the rates during the year to deal with all the inflation and this stubborn, uh, market conditions. So that caused a mess, and we saw the market drops, and we saw a lot of moves taking place, especially on the majors. So it leads to this week where we will have on Wednesday the CPI monthly and annual, both core and regular CPI. Definitely something to pay attention to because according to the expectations, the both expected to show increased numbers. If that is so, if that becomes true, then, uh, it should put, of course, the pressure on the Federal Reserve maybe actually to hike the rates. Then we have the rate decision in Canada, uh, this week, also in Europe, which expected to hike the rates. Um, that happens on Thursday. We have the PPI report also Busy week is ahead of us, and what does that all mean in terms of the chart? So euro dollar, our first one. Last time we had our weekly forex forecast published here, this was our expected move. We expected to see the euro pushing to the downside. What does that mean for now? Where is the euro going from here? So the plan did not change. I still still see that as a bearish divergence and I still expect to see ABCD correction completed. Therefore, from my point of view, the EUR/USD is still under bearish pressure. Take a look, this was a trade we are in this week in Home Trader Club with the break of our range and the EUR/USD works as per the plan and I still expect to see the EUR/USD reaching the next key levels on the go. What are these key levels on the go. So we have the lows here, this is the daily levels at least. But most importantly, again, if there will be no surprises from the market, I would expect to see this ABCD completes at some point with a bullish divergence. And then only then the euro dollar is most likely going to turn around to the upside once again. Until then, sell the rallies was and remains the plan, and I still don't see anything different here, uh, any pullbacks here still for me should deliver further move to the downside. Let's talk about the GBP/USD next. Last time we discussed about this one, our plan was to see the GBP/USD pushing down back to this volume zone and probably this area here. And as you can see, it doesn't change. The sellers are indeed in control And delivering the beautiful move. So down to where we are going on the pound dollar, we have this dynamic supportive line which goes here, which also means that this could complete as ABCD. If we have bullish divergence at that zone, we might see the retraces taking, um, taking it from there. If not, we're gonna break this low Probably get a retest just to see further move to the downside, and the reason for this one is the seem pretty much similar to the euro dollar. This is the bearish divergence. This is a false breakout, as you can see spotted by our indicator, the false break convergence indicator. So that means we expect either ABCD to complete or some sort of a range before. The next portion of the buyers will come in the game. And similar to the euro dollar, this one is also a trade we are involved with on the pound dollar. Our plan here is that this is our trigger zone, and from there we are in the sell. And this one so far goes sweet and delivers. I don't think it's over. I think the with all the current. Market conditions, we should be able to see the pound-dollar pushing further down, at least until it will start to build up some divergences against. Until then, the bearish pressure from my point of view is on. On the shorter term, pay attention to this mini range we have here. This is where the buyers took control from the last time. There is a good chance that once we get there with this 4-hour chart divergence, This one would create some sort of rejection, at least on the shorter term. Definitely worth to pay attention to. What happens with the gold? So last time we discussed about this one, we marked some key levels, and these were the ones we expected to see holding, and from there to get the gold pushing it to the downside. And you can see how well it does that exactly. What's next with gold? I Still think we are under bearish pressure. I would not be surprised if the gold would push all the way closer to the low here until it will find the bottom with some bullish divergence there. I still think it's under bearish pressure, and this zone is the first zone, while this range is the ideal final destination that I would not be surprised if would be reached. We are talking about 36, 3500 probably. Uh, so for me, gold is still under bearish pressure. Um, on the short term, of course, pullbacks could happen, but I still think gold has more to the downside. And the final one is gonna be Bitcoin. You remember the last time we discussed about this one. If you don't, you can find all these videos on this very channel. Our plan was after this, uh, run, get the rejection here, which you can see forming the peak And from there, we expect Bitcoin to drop to the downside. Did anything change? My answer is that I don't think so. I think Bitcoin is yet to deliver towards this low, maybe even to this range here, or maybe even all the way down to thirty thousand. So I still see that bearish, at least until. Uh, the weekly divergence would complete, and then and only then we can talk about some buys. As long as it's not the case, I think that sell the rallies was and remains the plan. So that's it for this video. As always, I hope you find value in it. Um, to quick summarize, euro-dollar, pound-dollar, gold, and Bitcoin are all for me still under bearish pressure, which means sell the rallies. For me, I believe there is more to come. Let's see where the market and what the market decides to do and where the market decides to go. So if you enjoy these opportunities, make sure you hit the like button. 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