In this weekly market‑forecast video, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club reviews the current macro backdrop – a Federal Reserve rate hold, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as a potential new Fed chair, and heightened geopolitical tension from the Iran situation – and explains how these factors are shaping major currency, metal and energy markets. He provides a detailed technical analysis for each instrument using his proprietary KTLI indicator, volume‑profile balance zones and hidden divergence concepts. For EUR/USD and GBP/USD he argues that broken resistance now acting as support, together with bullish hidden divergences, suggest further upside toward 1.22‑1.24 and 1.42‑1.44 respectively, unless a break below recent lows triggers a sell‑the‑rally scenario. For gold he identifies two key supply zones around $5,000‑$5,100 and $5,200‑$5,300, notes strong reversal candles and bearish hidden divergence, and recommends selling rallies on the short‑term correction. For oil he points to a bullish divergence on the weekly chart, higher‑highs on price and MACD, and a support‑resistance corridor around $66‑$71, forecasting a retracement followed by continued upside. Throughout the video he highlights risk triggers for each market, emphasizes the importance of volume‑profile balance zones, and concludes with a promotional call‑to‑action for Home Trader Club membership and 8K Broker offers.
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Hello traders, how are you? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to another weekly forex forecast. Before the charts, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to our partner 8K Broker, and you can enjoy all the special offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to up to one full year To Home Trader Club, including access to all the trading systems, private mentoring sessions, much more. Follow the link below this video in the description. Let's talk about the euro dollar first one for today. Last week we were talking about of course you can find everything on our channel here. The plan was to see these pullbacks and the euro dollar to push to 120, 122, 124. What we saw the euro dollar is actually getting to the 120 and then. After that, Federal Reserve holds the rates. The euro-dollar actually pushing backwards. Why? How? What's the plan? What's next? So there are lots of things going on at the moment. First of all, Trump nominated his main candidate to the next Federal Reserve after Jerome Powell, and that's Kevin Warsh. And according to many, Warsh is expected to have a line of—he was very loud about. Cutting the rates much more aggressively and maintaining the rates much lower than most of the economists and most of the Federal Reserve members actually wanted. But the market still trying to figure out what would be the actual line. Plus add to that the fear from the attack in Iran and many more other factors that happening here, and we got. Some reversals. The biggest question is what is coming next, and the according to the weekly chart, we already clean this supply level. So theoretically, we can see the euro dollar pushing down from here as a cycle might be completed, but not so fast because besides one reversal candle. There was not much happening since then. And if we take a look on the numbers of the euro dollar percentage change, so we can see that the one month and the seven days both are very positive. The last twenty four hours were negative, but the bigger picture is still very very positive, which makes me think that the euro dollar has more to offer to the upside. And as long as it managed to hold the low and this volume profile zone, there is a good chance that this is nothing more than a pullback. Before continuation down— up, sorry. And the way I see that, this gap is now being closed. We have the broken resistance that acts as a support. We have this major zone of resistance and low of demand, and mainly this massive volume profile balance zone. So as long as these levels actually hold, pay attention to the condition that the euro-dollar is forming here. Higher lows on the chart, lower lows on the indicator, which could build a bullish hidden divergence. And from there, look for the buys. What could actually cause the reversal pattern and flip the trend? So if the euro does not manage to hold the peak and we start to see the waves pushing down by making lower highs, lower lows, then And only then we can discuss about the longer reversal pattern. As long as it did not happen, for me it remains under the bullish momentum with the probability to go next to the 122, 124, which we've been talking about from last week here and here, maybe even above that. So to summarize the euro dollar, as long as the broken support, broken resistance that now acts as a support in this zone of demand where we see the high of resistance and the low of the buyers, as long as this area hold, we can also see the volume profile balance zone here with this indicator. This is our KTLI indicator, part of Home Trader Club. As long as all that hold, I believe that these bottoms should provide us the opportunities to look and to buy the euro dollar. What could trigger the reversed view is the break below the recent daily low, completion of more than one wave to the downside, and then we can talk about sell the rallies. Next one is the pound dollar. Last week we were talking about buy retraces, and we expected to see the pound dollar pushing further to the upside. As we can see that these retraces were very small, if at all. It was more like a consolidation before the buyers exploded. And similar to the euro-dollar, as soon as we got the Federal Reserve holding the rates and then the nomination of the next Federal Reserve and all the other interesting political and geopolitical data came out, we see the dollar gaining some strength by the end of the week. But the biggest question is, is the bullish run over? So I don't think it is. I think we definitely need to start to pay attention to how this divergence will form and when it will complete, right? But a great chance we will see the pound-dollar pushing it towards the 140+ area, most likely even 142, 144, maybe even higher. So what are the scenarios I want to see on the pound-dollar? The ideal scenario Would be that the pound dollar, similar to the euro, yeah, was the break of this line and the broken resistance that now acts as the support and the low of the demand and this volume profile based balance area. Again, this is our KTLI indicator, part of Home Trader Club, and from that area, I believe the pound dollar has more to offer to the upside. The ideal scenario would be the push here until the daily would complete. Its own divergence, which will align with the weekly divergence we saw before. What could change that if the pound-dollar— because we do need to pay attention, weekly does build a potential divergence, daily bouncing off an overbought condition. Sometimes it's pretty rare, but sometimes it is the beginning of reversal. What could trigger that? Similar to the euro, if we manage to get the waves down, break below the recent low but in more than one wave, then we can talk about sell these rallies expecting the next low of the horizon, 130.127, to be reached. As long as it did not happen, I would be looking for bullish scenarios on the pound-dollar. There is a gap here from the previous week, there is a broken resistance that acts as support, rising trend line, volume profile area, and a potential bullish hidden divergence. So once that forms and establishes itself, I believe it should be a good buy opportunity. We can see on— in terms of numbers, similar to the euro, the pound is very bullish on the longer view perspective. The 1 month and the 7 days is ultra bullish. The last day was negative, but the longer view is still very positive. Look at the monthly chart. And the positive change it has. Look at the weekly chart and the positive change it has. So on the last couple of weeks, and I believe it's most likely not over. So to summarize the pound dollar, I believe that we have the gap and the broken support act as resistance, rising trend line, and the volume profile balance area. As long as these don't hold, I would be expecting the pound dollar to create the bottom and. Start to push to the upside. And the only way I can see that flipping the, uh, the trend is if we manage to get the daily low, which is pretty far for now, broken by making a sequence of lower highs, lower lows. Then we can talk about sell the rallies. Next one, the gold, the so anticipated gold, and a crazy move down happened on the last couple of days. Some time ago, in the, let's say, more normal conditions on the market, um, a move of $100 per ounce a day would be unbelievable. And if we are talking about a day where it moves actually like 600, 700, 800 points of dollars per ounce, it's beyond Imagination. What and where does the gold go? So, as I mentioned in the last many weeks, this rally is temporary. I don't think it's over for the long run. I think there is much more to come for the very long term. But on the short term, these are not normal conditions, not normal levels, unusual rally. Uh, and many times I don't have to predict the future, but many times it reflects with major corrections to the downside, especially when we are in historical overbought conditions on the monthly, on the weekly, and the daily charts. And I believe this correction is due to build up and provide some sell opportunities. So weekly, monthly are all over Uh, bought including the daily chart. But the daily chart, unlike the others, provides 2 major reversal candle patterns. This is a very strong candle pattern which many times hints the correction is building up. And that's my opinion, that we are in front of a correction. What levels I would be paying attention to? So first of all, we have the psychological 5,000 up to 5,100. This is a very strong supply area where it was ranging. Lots of transactions went through this zone, and as long as this area holds, I would be paying attention to rallies, maybe bearish hidden divergence, lower highs on the chart versus higher highs on the MACD histogram to complete hidden divergence, and from there actually looking for the sell. The second key zone, uh, the way I see that is this range through— let's mark it here— through this range right here. Let's put a rectangle, it will be a bit more visible. That's not a rectangle. Now it is. So that's— and that's— these are the 2 zones which also should be respected. Why this is so important? Because at that point Look what happened. Fight, buyers took control, and that area is now cleaned. So that area now could act as supply level. And here, this range was a step in this strong bearish momentum. It was holding here, and then sellers took control. So as long as these levels hold, for me, this is sell the rallies. Uh, the first zone we discussed, the second zone is slightly higher around the $5,200 up to $5,300. Key levels. Pay attention to the rallies. If next bearish signs build up and happen, that's the chance to look for the sell. So to summarize the gold, look at these 2 major candles, reversal candles on a daily chart, and the waves down that gold managed to build. 1, 2, 3. So I believe as long as these levels here And here managed to hold. For me, gold is sell the rallies. And the final one for today, one we did not discuss about long time—that's the oil bullish divergence completes on the weekly chart, plus the pressure with the attack on potential attack on Iran, and that the daily chart makes higher highs. Higher low structure after this was a bullish divergence, and now this high is broken. Higher highs on the chart and higher highs on the MACD histogram. That's a strong sign that retraces and potential bullish continuation is due. Where are very logical to look for retraces? This key zone. We have this about 67 down to 66. This is the key area which is flirting around right now. And up to 68 through 71. What do we have? What do we need to pay attention to on the 4-hour chart? I would start to pay attention to reversal signs at the end of the waves. So we have these waves, right? Very likely some range, one more push. Look for this divergence to complete around the levels we discussed, and that could be the place where the retraces Will happen after they actually happen. There is a good chance that then we have the broken resistances that act as support. We have the demand. We have the rising trend line from that area. Look again for bullish signs and continuation to the upside. So to summarize the oil, I believe on the shorter term. From these peaks on a daily chart, we are due to see the retraces, and after that, I believe the oil has more to offer. Broken resistances will now act as support. Watch out for the rising support line, and from there, look for the further buys that I think should happen on oil. That's it for this weekly video. As always, I hope you find value. In the trading opportunities. If you do, please don't forget, hit the like button, subscribe to our channel, and if you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask in the comments. And also, I want to invite you to our trading family, Home Trader Club. Enjoy your access to our full comprehensive courses and medias on real-time trading opportunities, real-time trading education, so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours, and I'll see you soon with more good trading. Bye for now.
