In this weekly market outlook, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club provides a concise technical and macro‑economic analysis for three major instruments – EUR/USD, GBP/USD and gold (XAUUSD). He begins by recapping the impact of Donald Trump’s re‑election and shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations on the US dollar, noting the dollar’s recent strength‑weakness‑strength cycle. For EUR/USD, he highlights the break of two major trend lines and a demand zone, projecting continued bearish pressure but anticipating a short‑term bounce near daily and weekly demand zones, supported by bullish divergences and Fibonacci extensions (61.8% and 100%). For GBP/USD, he mirrors the EUR analysis: the pair is also in a bearish phase, with key demand zones, a rising trend line, and volume‑profile balance zones that could trigger a brief rally before the next downside move. Regarding gold, Ribakov points to overbought conditions on the weekly chart, a strong bearish divergence on the daily MACD, and broken trend lines, suggesting a near‑term corrective drop before any longer‑term upside, contingent on a supply zone holding. Throughout, he recommends a “sell‑the‑rally” approach on short‑term moves, while watching for divergences and key support/resistance levels for potential reversals. The video ends with a call to subscribe, like, and join the Home Trader Club for deeper education and real‑time trading opportunities.
Chapters
Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. The first pair for today would be the EUR/USD. A quick follow-up on what we discussed on the last week. Plan was straightforward. We wanted to see these rallies taking place, completing themselves, and from there the EUR/USD to push lower. To be honest, it happened a bit earlier than I personally expected. I did want to see that creating a final rally here and then making the breakout. However, At the moment that these trend lines were broken, the first rising one, then the second one, it's basically game over and the euro-dollar tanked to the downside. What does it all mean and what do we have from here? So several interesting things happened on the last week. First of all, Donald Trump was re-elected and will be the 47th President of the United States. Like it or dislike it, uh, that's what will happen on the next 4 years. And, um, the market reacted accordingly. The dollar gained massive strength as soon as his win was was beginning to establish. Uh, the day after, with, uh, preparation for the, um, Federal Reserve cutting the rates and expectation maybe it's not so bad all of it, the dollar, uh, lost its, uh, strength. And now on Friday it gains the strength again. I want to also to mention that I record this video, it's still Friday, market is still open. Okay, it might— the price now and by the end of the day, uh, or during the weekend when you will watch the video might be slightly different. So please pay attention to that. So again, too many factors, too many things. The bottom line, the euro dollar is pushing down, and the biggest question is what's next. So here are a few very interesting or important things to pay attention to. The trend line, the massive trend line that the euro dollar was holding, is broken down. The massive demand zone that was here also was broken down. However, there are several very important levels on the way. Okay, the first one is the coming level here and here based on the daily chart. And if we take a look on the weekly chart, we would see that the weekly also has this massive demand zone on the way, and it's pretty much Uh, there also on the weekly and the daily. So the way I see that, the euro dollar will try— it will likely push further down, uh, towards these levels. But as soon as we get there, it's very likely we will see the euro dollar gaining some slowdown, completing conditions of a bullish divergence around the key levels we saw before. And very likely will start to push it up again. I don't think it's a trend we can expect a trend change or anything like that at the moment. I do think though that from the mentioned levels, euro-dollar buyers, especially if it manages to complete the four-hour and daily divergences, very likely euro will try to make some bounces. To the upside, and from there again possible continuation to the downside. If we plot Fibonacci extension on the current ongoing waves, we will see that 61.8 Fibonacci is pretty much around the zone we discussed, the first zone, and the 100 Fibonacci is around the weekly demand zone. From these levels, I do believe the euro-dollar is likely to create the pressure and push to the upside. Until then, and as long as the bearish pressure is here, and as long as euro is trying to understand now, okay, Donald Trump won, we need to find a way not to be so dependent on the US money. Um, as Trump said not once that he is against all that. Uh, money deals with they have, uh, that therefore the fear, therefore the pressure. And I don't think it's over. I think it's here to stay, at least for now. If we take a look on the numbers, uh, from the market trend snapshot for the percentage changes we have, take a look on the control we have by the bears right now on the 7 days and the months and the last 24 hours. It is clearly bearish control, so sell the rallies was and remains the plan. However, we are not too far from key levels where I believe the buyers will actually start and reject and look to push the, uh, euro-dollar up again, at least on the short term. The next pair would be the pound-dollar. Another quick follow-up on our discussions from the last week. We wanted to see these rallies to the key levels, and from there the pound-dollar to push it down. So what happened with the pound similar to what happened with the euro. It's not that complicated. Trump, they cut the rates, and so on and so on. And the question is what's coming next? So let's take a look on the numbers quickly. As it is lined up on the longer term, 7 days and the months are negative. 24 hours is somewhere flat, but the idea here, again, you can see it's different because 24 hours, not a daily candle, it's 24 hours. Slightly positive, as you can see from this zone, and of course it will change during that. Weekend and Monday. But here is a very interesting thing. Pound-dollar is still bearish, but like the euro, who— which is approaching to some key levels, the pound-dollar is approaching to its own key levels. We have huge demand zone and rising supportive line and huge volume profile-based balance zone. These areas are very strong, very powerful, and I believe at least on the short term they will be the levels where the pound will try to come start and complete some bounce before it will actually go further to the downside. So with that idea in mind, similar to what we saw on the euro dollar, I believe on a short term every rally here is a sell. It could follow either ABCD correction and then make the drop down. It could move inside this range for some time and then complete the final drop towards the levels we discussed before based on the daily and 4-hour and the weekly chart. So for me, in the short term, it is still sell the rally. However, as we approach to this phenomenal supportive zone and the rising trend line That's where the pound-dollar is likely, and with this divergence potentially to form, right, that's where the pound-dollar is likely to create some deeper turnaround eventually. So for me, that's how I see the pound-dollar. And the final one would be gold. During the week, I uploaded my video— make sure you watch it if you didn't— on the About the gold, how I do expect to see further drop down after the retest we experience on at the four-hour chart. The reason is not because I think the long-term trend trend changes here. I'm doubtful, to be honest. I think at the end of the correction, we should see the gold trying to make one more peak. But We cannot close the eyes to the reality of these clean overbought conditions we have on the weekly chart and a massive divergence we have on the daily chart here and here on the bigger scales. Higher highs on the chart, clean long lower highs on the MACD. I do expect to see some corrective movement here. There are a couple of interesting levels we should pay attention to. The ongoing trend lines, of course, and the demand levels. We have some support on the broken resistances. I do believe the gold should make this drop down before the continuation upside after that, possibly. The way it looks right now, it is forming 2 waves to the downside after the break of this trend line, making the lower lows on the chart and lower lows on the indicator. So the possible scenario from here is either ABCD and then continuation to the downside, or some sort of a range and then continuation to the downside. So, um, that's pretty much straightforward for me on the gold, and all that will remain bearish for me as long as this key supply zone will actually hold. Any movement, any range here, and I do expect that gold to continue its bearish momentum, push down and create new lows based on the 4-hour chart. That's it for this video. Thank you for watching, and if you are new to our community, I would like to invite you and subscribe with the subscribe button. Below this video. And if you enjoyed it, you found value, please hit the like button. I also want to invite you to our trading family, Home Trader Club. Get your access to our full courses, real-time education and real-time trading opportunities, access to our community, and so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Thanks for watching. Best to you and yours. I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.
