In this weekly market outlook, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club reviews the upcoming macroeconomic calendar—Japan lower‑house elections, US retail sales, a postponed non‑farm payroll report, and core and headline CPI—explaining how these events could pressure the US dollar. He then provides conditional technical analyses for four key instruments. For EUR/USD he highlights a critical low on the volume‑profile balance area; if the low holds, the pair may rally to 1.224‑1.240, otherwise a two‑wave break could trigger a sell‑the‑rally approach. For GBP/USD he notes the Bank of England’s rate‑hold decision, a similar volume‑profile zone, and a potential move above 1.40‑1.44 if the low holds, with a sell‑the‑rally bias if broken. For gold he points to overbought Bollinger Bands and RSI above 80, bearish three‑soldier candles, and key supply zones; he expects an ABCD‑type correction or range before a downside push. For Bitcoin he describes a broken support‑turned‑resistance zone around $45k, a falling trend line, and a sell‑the‑rally stance until a reversal signal appears. Throughout, Ribakov emphasizes conditional “buy the dips” versus “sell the rallies” strategies based on price action, volume‑profile balance areas, and indicator confirmations. The video also contains promotional segments for the Home Trader Club and its sponsor 8K Broker.
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What's up guys, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. Before the charts, as always, big thanks, thumbs up to our partner 8K Broker and to enjoy all the offers we have with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club up to one Full year, all of our trading strategies, all of our trading tools, private sessions, and more. Please refer to the link below this video in the description. So a big week ahead of us where it starts on 8th of February with the lower house elections in Japan. It continues with retail sales in the U.S. on Tuesday, and then a postponed non-farm payroll report, which was supposed to be on the last Friday, but due to all the governmental. Partial closures and so, and so on. It was postponed until this Wednesday and was will supposed to be published there unless there will be changes again. And the main event of this week from my point of view is going to be besides the nonfarm payroll is going to be the CPI, which will publish core CPI and regular CPI for monthly and annual read. As per the expectation, we should see the drop of to 2.5% further easings. Which should be contributing to the weakness of the dollar, theoretically. Any read besides that could make the market shake. So with all these fundamentals ahead of us and with everything happened in the world recently, still with the fear of the US potential attack on Iran, Even though there are negotiations officially, and with recent news about the governmental intervention in gold and silver, with all these political, geopolitical, speculative, manipulative moves, we have several very interesting opportunities. So let's begin. Our first one would be the euro-dollar and the last. Week on our video, we were talking about looking for buy retraces. My plan here did not— the euro was not doing much this week. As you can see, it was flat. But right now it's in a critical area, which makes sense because with the data that should be published this week, including the non-farm payroll and this coming CPI, this should be the decisive moment. As long as this low after the break of the range triangle, as long as this low holds, I believe the EUR/USD should gain the momentum and make the final push to the upside. How far? Until it will complete some combination of the daily and the weekly divergence, very possible towards the 122-124. If this low would not hold, actually, and we get the euro making 2 waves to the downside, that should be ideally even by breaking this low. If that managed to happen and the price places itself below this balance zone, you can see this is a big balance area here based on the volume profile. And below the 200 moving average. If we get 2 waves down below these areas, below these 2 lows, then it should be a great opportunity to start looking to sell the rallies. So to summarize the EUR/USD, I believe as long as the break of this range and the low hold and this volume profile balance area hold as well, I believe the euro has all the reasons to to push to the upside. However, if these couple of lows would be broken in more than one wave, so let's say 2 waves on the euro, that should be a good call to start looking and sell the rallies, as then the corrective cycle might be developing on this pair. Next one, the pound-dollar. So last week we were talking about that our expectations that after these drops we should see the pound-dollar climbing further to the upside. We got some significant drop on the pound this week and it was due to the vote of the Central Bank of England about the rates. They did hold the rates on the last week. But the vote shows that more members support further cuts, which puts some pressure on the pound. However, I do not think the pound-dollar completed its cycle, and I still believe the pound-dollar should clean these weekly highs above the 1.40, maybe even above 1.44. So for me, this is still buy the dips. And if we go to the daily chart, we can see that the daily chart pretty much similar to what happens with the euro dollar after breaking this range channel, you name it, it now comes for the retest and it is in a critical zone right now, exactly on a week where we have non-farm payroll, retail sales, and the CPI monthly and annual. The market doesn't make the move random. Well, sometimes. It usually comes to decisive moment where both buy and sells could be justified. So to be clear here, as long as this low and the broken channel range we just discussed about hold, and you can see that we have a volume profile balance zone at that area. As long as that holds, I believe the pound-dollar should be pushing to the upside. If similar to the euro-dollar, it turns to be two waves down breaking the low, then I believe we enter a corrective phase and the pound-dollar should push further down. But as long as it didn't happen. I'm looking to buy these drops. And if we go to the 4-hour chart, we might see the pound-dollar developing here some sort of 2 waves and a rally, or it could simply hold the bottom and start climbing up by making new sequence of higher highs, higher lows, and then— If the sequence of higher highs, higher lows, which refers to the buyer's control, if that happens, that could be a good opportunity to look for the buy the dips. So to summarize the pound-dollar, I believe we now retest this broken channel and this volume profile zone. All that happens around the psychological 135 down to 134. And as long as this zone managed to hold, I believe the pound-dollar has all all the reasons to push further to the upside, maybe even to above 140 in this round. However, if this low is broken in more than 2 waves, in more than one wave, then I believe then we should be looking to sell the rallies. Let's talk about our favorite, the gold. But before the charts, I would like to take the opportunity and to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Where you would be able to enjoy our courses for both beginners and advanced, as well as free courses. You would be able to enjoy our trading opportunities coming in a video, and you can see here our trading journal, as well as the comprehensive media zone full of webinars and live weekly sessions. So much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. And now to the gold. Last week we discussed when we made our analysis that I believe that the correction is not over and we should be looking to sell the gold. So as you can see, the gold pushes up, making its correction, pushes down, and the question is what is coming next. So to make, um, I would say clear, clearer answer on that, I do not think the craziness around the metals is over. I think the gold has more to offer to the upside. However, I do believe we entered some slowdown condition. And as you can see, the Bollinger Bands, the conditions are not technical right now. It is pure manipulative with everything happens around the world. Regardless, I want to show what we do have in terms of extreme conditions. Okay. Overriding on the upper Bollinger Band without yet retesting the opposite Bollinger Band and not even the center. Every time it happened in the past, it retested at least the center of the Bollinger and many times even the opposite direction. This round, it did not happen yet. Plus, we have overbought conditions on the weekly chart on the RSI. being way above the 80. The daily chart follows the same path, but the interesting part on the daily chart, it created major overbought conditions with RSI read above 80. And then look what happened here with these 3 bearish soldiers, usually a very positive bearish sign, which makes me think sell the rallies is the good one to follow here. And on the 4-hour chart, we can— let's close the levels— we can see that right now this range is the key range that acts in the supply zone. But I would also be paying attention to this zone. Why this zone? Massive drop down, inner candle, and another strong bearish control. So this range and this range become to be the 2 key levels. If we plot our KTLI indicator levels, you can see that the weekly levels are actually there, including the daily key volume profile levels. So I believe that these 2 waves, pardon me, these 2 waves are to finish either in ABCD correction or some sort of a range, and then we should be looking for further push. To the downside. So to make a short summary on the gold, you can watch the full analysis as always in our weekly video here, of course, on the YouTube channel. But to make it short, I believe that these key levels, as long as they hold, I refer to this range and the high and this inner candle before the sellers took control. As long as these two levels hold, I believe the gold. Should create either ABCD or a range here and then push further to the downside. And the final one for today, Bitcoin. On my annual forecast, you can watch the annual forecast on my YouTube channel, of course, but watch this video here on the right top corner. We discussed That as long as, pardon, as long as this zone holds, we should be looking to sell the Bitcoin. And the Bitcoin crashes significantly, I would say. What will happen next? So is it over? I don't think so. I believe the Bitcoin is yet to form the bottom. However, These retraces right now are very welcome. Down to where should the Bitcoin go? I believe this zone is a very legit zone and it should be playing inside this area. It might try to push a little bit lower towards the trend line, maybe to clean the low below the $45,000. However, I think the bottom is not too far and the ideal case scenario would be here. If the Bitcoin managed to complete some sort of a reversal signs with with a good bottom, and from there start its climbing. So at the moment, again, I don't think it's over. We have the broken support act resistance, last high act as supply, falling trend line, and that makes me think that sell the rallies is still the right. Play on the Bitcoin. However, once we complete this push and we start to see this divergence kicking in, that's the time to buy the Bitcoin. So short summary on the Bitcoin. I do not think it's over, but I think this zone would have a significant slowdown here for where from the Bitcoin could actually start building upper traces. But as long as Did not happen. The broken support acts as resistance, last high acts as supply, and the falling resistance line connecting these two peaks should provide further sell opportunities on the Bitcoin. That would be it for this video, and as always, I want to take the opportunity and to thank you for watching, and thank you for your time. I hope you find value. in these trading opportunities. Please don't forget to hit the like button if you do. And once again, I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, with the link below this video in the description. If you are new to our channel, please consider subscribing to enjoy all of our content we upload during the week for you. Best to you and yours. Thanks for watching. I wish you good trading and I'll see you soon with more. Bye for now.
