In this weekly market outlook, Vladimir Ribakov of Home Trader Club reviews the recent U.S. Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP) data and its effect on the US dollar, then provides detailed technical analyses for four major instruments: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold (XAUUSD) and oil (WTI). He explains how the strong jobs report reinforced dollar strength, delaying expectations of a Fed rate cut and prompting a breakout from previous range‑bound behavior. For EUR/USD, he highlights bearish pressure from supply zones, volume‑profile balance areas, moving‑average resistance, and a bearish MACD/RSI divergence, suggesting a likely move lower with potential retests of key trendlines and demand zones. For GBP/USD, he contrasts two scenarios: a false breakout with bearish divergence leading to a corrective down‑move, versus a longer‑term bullish cycle that could resume after the correction; he leans toward a short‑term downside bias while maintaining a bullish outlook over multiple cycles. The gold segment examines monthly, weekly and daily charts, noting overbought conditions, a custom Bollinger‑Band duplication indicator, strong bearish divergence, and Fibonacci extensions around the 161.618 level, concluding that selling rallies is appropriate as long as the recent peak holds. The oil analysis revisits a previously identified daily demand zone, observes a bounce from that area, and points out a broken expanding channel that now acts as resistance, maintaining a bearish stance and recommending sell‑the‑rally trades. Throughout, Ribakov references his analytical toolkit—trendlines, moving averages, volume profile, MACD, RSI, custom Bollinger bands, and Fibonacci—and invites viewers to engage via comments, likes, and subscription, while promoting Home Trader Club’s educational resources, live trading room, indicators, and mentorship programs.
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Hello traders, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to the weekly forex forecast. Before we begin, big thanks to 8K Broker for supporting our community. To enjoy all the amazing offers we have together with 8K Broker, including the access to Home Trader Club. Live trading room, the trading systems, private mentoring sessions, the indicators, and all the other projects, please refer to the link below this video in the description. The first pair would be the EUR/USD. What was moving in a range for a while now seems to be over. Why? Today the NFP report was published and the numbers show The U.S. job market is still here, is still strong, and despite the slightly increased unemployment rate, the job market itself shows very powerful way over 250K, which is phenomenal numbers by itself increase. And dollar strength move. Didn't wait too much to start and happen, and we saw the euro-dollar and all the other dollar pairs making dramatic moves during Friday. Why is that so? The logical expectation from the market was continuously slowing down. The job market will definitely open the doors for the Fed to cut the rates, actually. But strong job market could go and prevent it. So all this preparation that the market did before turned to be overexcitement, maybe. So that postponed the odds for the US cut further. So what happened besides that? Europe already cut the rates. Canada already cut the rates. So they're there was some feeling that the US would be next, and now after the nonfarm payrolls report, it looks not so close. So one of the scenarios I want to discuss— actually, let's wind back the discussion we've had on the last weekly forecast. One of the scenarios we were following is this range. Breakout, right? And that could be the zigzag as two waves up and then move move inside the range and breakout for continuation. However, it also could be easily developing eventually deeper ABCD movement. And with the way it looks right now, while the euro still is holding the lower highs, still holding itself. Below this volume profile-based balance zone, below that 200 moving average and dynamic 50 moving average here as well. That's dynamic resistance. The euro is also holding this supply zone that we can see right here. So with all that pressure, there is a very good chance the euro will try to push it down again on a daily chart. We discussed about the supply on the weekly. Now here is the supply from the daily, and now we have a bearish divergence— higher highs on the chart versus lower highs on all the indicators: the MACD, the RSI, everything. And the most recent trend line here attempts to break as well. We are also below the volume profile zone, so there is a very, very, very high chance the euro, with some pullbacks, will try to push it Lower. And if we drop to the lower timeframe, the four-hour chart, for example, in that case, here are some important levels to pay attention to. This is the bigger rising trend line. This is the latest rising trend line, and the latest one was broken. So with the beginning of a week potential pullbacks, there is a very good chance the euro will continue to the next line. Or even directly there and then break that down, okay, straight, and then go for a retest before deciding what is coming next. So with all the scenarios currently happening, any pullbacks here are likely to lead for a move down either to the bigger trend line retest or all the way To break below the line, and also I want you to pay attention to the next important balance zone. This was the big balance zone. Next one is here. Okay, it's also surrounded by the demand levels we have here from the four-hour chart, and the broken resistance that now becomes a support. That's a very strong level. There is a great chance the euro is heading there. What do you think about? This one? Let me know in the comment section below this video. The next one, pound-dollar. But before that, I would like to ask your support. If you find value in this video, you appreciate the opportunities, the trading education here, please hit the like button. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you believe can benefit watching that. And if you are new to our community, please consider to subscribe With the subscribe button below this video to enjoy all the other trading education and trading opportunities I share with you here. So thank you for your support in advance. Let's continue. One of the scenarios we were following on the pound dollar was the break of this range, exactly like the euro dollar, right? And what we wanted to see is the pound to go and to hold above the broken. range, then come for a retest and fly. But the other scenario we were talking about in the recent weekly forecast is if it doesn't go and hold above the range, which still didn't happen, and the 4-hour chart could actually go and complete the divergence by itself, which it does here. False breakout, false peak with a bearish divergence, right? And then start to lead for some corrective movement. So this scenario starts to look really good right now. The pound makes the bounce of the top of the trend line, and unlike the euro-dollar, this one, the United Kingdom did not yet go for a dramatic cut with something that looks like a beginning of a new trend here. So very possibly that the pound-dollar will follow after all the bounce before the actual breakout. And the reason I am anticipating something like that, and I will explain later on again the short-term opportunity, is on the long-term opportunity, the end of these 3 major cycles and huge bullish divergence, very likely to believe that the pound-dollar after its correction will continue all the way up. So for me, for the long term, it's very bullish. Okay, but on the short term, exactly like with the euro dollar, if we go to the weekly chart, it still for a long time now holds this range as a possibility of the breakout. It got 2 waves up. Usually it follows by 2 waves down or a range. Range is current scenario. Which ideally means pullback and breakout. But we always have to remember the possibility of this second deep move down before it actually makes the rally. So on the short term, as long as this falling resistance line actually holds and we don't have the pound dollar closing above to start the Breakout, the move down is very, very, very likely. And if we go to the four-hour chart with this false breakout now and the beginning of this wave making lower highs, lower lows, I believe pound dollar has all the reasons and all the possibility to continue its move down. This is the main major trend line we have at the moment. If the pair managed to go below that, then sell the rallies back to the volume zone and sell the rallies on the short term will make absolute sense from my point of view. And if we take it a bit more aggressive view, then again, there are no signs at the moment that this is over. So technically speaking, any range or wavings here Followed by breakout could also be a bit more aggressive, but also great opportunity to make the move down. What do you think about the pound dollar? Is the breakout upside coming, or we will see some good correction before that? Share with us in the comment section below this video. The next one would be the gold. What a beautiful. Structure it was forming on the last several weeks, and what a great probability it brings for the longer run. Let's take a look on the monthly chart, not because we are here to trade it, just to explain the what's going on. Take a look on the last 3 months so far. June is still young, so it's very early to judge, but look at these spikes on the very top, couple of spikes on the very top Last time it happened was actually all these peaks, as you can see, all these peaks, right? And then we got the move down. So for now, it's a very strong possibility here. Besides that, very strong bearish divergence coming here between all the highs. It's a strong sign. And if we take that to the weekly chart, what we will see there that at the end of the current waving, we got to the place where the RSI and the MACD were creating overbought conditions. Okay, add to that the fact— let me just drop the Bollinger Band here— add to that the Bollinger Band duplication. This is my custom Bollinger Band indicator that I'm using here that allows me to find a dynamic resistance, support, and overriding conditions Based on the Bollinger Bands, you can get your copy of this indicator with the link below this video in the description. So from this breakout, the Bollinger Band duplication level was right here, and as soon as we got to this zone, the gold reacts and reacts very nicely. So if we go to the daily chart right now, what we will see that if we plot Fibonacci extension On these very waves, first wave and then the second wave, we will see that the gold bounced off a golden area, close to the golden area of 161.618, which was right here. Okay, the gold was so close to that, within the accepted deviation zone. There is accepted deviation because market is not perfect. And then from this key golden area, it completed a bearish divergence, which is another powerful sign. That means the bears are possibly coming in. What happened since we got 3 waves down, and now we receive 2 waves up here with this line being broken, this rising line, which usually hints That we are now heading south. So from my point of view, we have here a huge volume zone, balance zone, based on the daily and the weekly. The price tanked below this level. Any pullback to get this zone retested and rejection should open the doors for further move down on the gold. So for me, this is actually sell the rallies as long as the recent peak holds. What would be your thoughts? Share with us in the comment section. And the final one, oil. During the week, I published my view on oil that I believe that this zone would be the buy zone. This is a daily demand area, and with the 4-hour chart coming to the place of Extreme conditions, we expected to see the oil pushing up from there. So oil actually makes this push down, push up directly from the daily supply zone. Make sure you watch the video about the oil from this week so you can understand it a bit deeper and better. Now what is next with oil? So as it bounced off this classical demand area. There is no real reversal sign at the moment because the price structure as it forms at the moment on the daily chart is still bearish without any significant divergence in play here. It's still, still bearish. So for me, this is still potential sell the rallies. And taking into consideration the 4-hour chart broke this expanding channel which is now retested I believe that this broken support now acts as a resistance throughout all these dynamic resistance will act as a resistance zone or as a zone of sellers, and I believe that we as long as the oil is within these range prices, we should be looking for bearish opportunities and for sales. How do you see the oil? What would you expect to see from this one? Share with us in the comment section. That's it for this video. I hope you find value in this one. Don't forget to like button if you do. A few words in the comment section would be a fantastic help. And I want to thank you for your time watching this video and to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club, where you will get your access to our full Comprehensive trading courses for beginners, for advanced, and comprehensive media zone, trading tools, access to the community, real-time trading education and opportunities, so much more. Join our family with the link below this video in the description. Best to you and yours. Good trading. Bye for now.
