Vladimir Ribakov analyzes EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, and Bitcoin for the week ahead. The Fed is holding rates high while Canada, Australia, and Japan decide their own moves. Ribakov is bearish on the currency pairs, sees a potential gold bounce if support holds, and says Bitcoin needs another low before bottoming.
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What's up, traders? Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our weekly forex forecast. After a very busy fundamental week in the previous week where so many things happened with so many countries announced their interest rate decision, while the main focus was of course normally on the US one where the Federal Reserve, the new one, basically hints that Maybe there will be no choice but hiking the rates, preparing the ground. And now Trump, who was completely against Jerome Powell, now he sounds different. Now he says maybe it's not so bad to keep the rates high, so high. So political games, probably, most likely. But the bottom line is the market is preparing for the probability the US would have no choice but hiking the rates. How will all the other countries respond? We saw Japan hiking the rates as well, uh, the last week. Some other countries hesitating yet, but lots of things happen this week as well. Of course, the eyes are still on the agreement between the US and Iran. Uh, the just now the weekend the Hormuz Strait was closed again. Uh, then, um, new leak rumors say it will be reopened, and this will continue and continue and continue. So what's expected for us this week? We have the CPI data in Canada, uh, Monday morning. I would be very, very curious to see what will happen there as Canada was very hesitant about, about their recent, the latest, um, interest rate decision, uh, and this CPI data might give some more brighter light, I would say, uh, on what will happen on the next, uh, ones, next decisions. And the reason is because the Central Bank of Japan, the main message they sent— of Canada, sorry, not Japan— uh, the main message they said was We are not hiking the rate. We're not cutting the rate. We might do so this way. We might do this way. But the bottom line, the eyes are on the CPI. High CPI or increasing CPI might have no choice for the Canadian bank as well to hike the rates. So as you can see here, the expectations from the monthly rate is 0.7%, while the annual is not expected to be changed. Any rate differently could cause moves. Then we follow on Tuesday night with the CPI in Australia, of course. Um, then where is it? On Wednesday we have the job market in Australia, and then Thursday core PCE index, one of the key leading indices the Federal Reserve follows in the US for its inflation fight. GDP in the US as well, and that's what's expected for us this week. So how does it look like on the charts? But a quick one before the charts, I would like to remind you that we partnered with AvaTrade, one of the leading brokers out there in our industry, and you can get with this partnership access, unlimited access to Home Trader Club and all of our features including the Trade Copier when you trade with AvaTrade. What you have to do is just to follow the link below this video in the description, get your account there, set it up, contact me by Telegram. Also, you can find it below, uh, in the description. Get your access to our club, unlimited access. So the euro dollar is our first one, and last week I was talking about the probability that we're gonna see the euro dollar pushing further down and therefore sell the rallies was our trading plan here. As you can see, the euro continues its bearish direction and the biggest question is it over? I don't think so. I think this ABCD is yet to form even though it is already around the previous low and that's a potential bullish divergence forming. It did not form yet. So I think The probabilities are still sell the rallies here, and there are two scenarios that reversal could build up on the following weeks. And here are the scenarios. The ideal one is when we start to see fake lows while the market makes lower lows. The indicator MACD, for example, creates Uh, higher lows, that's a bullish divergence, and that could be the sign for the reversal. In rare cases, uh, the market makes some waves upside, wave down, and then after the break of that could be, uh, the hint that it is over. But the way that the waves look for now, I don't think it's over. For me The first scenario I mentioned is still sell the rallies, and I would not be surprised if we're gonna clean this level below 114, the weekly low, um, just to form a bottom. And if we take a look on the weekly chart, that could give a little— I would say maybe even a bit brighter, um, observation. This weekly resistance was not yet tested. There is a great chance we're gonna see that happen around the 113-ish and maybe, maybe all the way down to 109 around the volume profile level and the rising supportive line within this bullish channel. So that's why all the current developing views are bearish for me. I would be looking to sell the rallies on the euro dollar still. And what's up with the pound dollar? So quick follow-up on our last weekly forex forecast, and you can watch all these videos in our channel, of course. We were talking about sell the rallies as we expect the pound dollar to continue its bearish move. And it's also a great opportunity to mention how patience pays off. This is our trade from Home Trader Club. We were waiting after the market flipped and made the lower lows. We wanted to sell the rallies. It took some time and look at the waves, how they were developing, but it entered the trigger zone and then look how annoying it was. Drop, rally, drop, rally, drop, rally again, and only then the move down happened. Patience pays off when it comes to trading and it's important to remember that. What's next with the pound-dollar? So as I said last week and I will repeat in the last video, not the last week, it was, I think, 2 weeks ago. Uh, my view is that the pound dollar is bearish and I still don't think it's over. Similar to the euro dollar, I believe this is forming the bottom and I'm not sure at all it is formed already. Even though this low is retested, there are no reversal signs completed. So what could happen here is one of the 2 scenarios. Ideally, like with the euro dollar, temporary retraces before further bearish continuation down until the weekly low is cleaned. We are talking about 130 approximately. And for that to happen, of course it could happen on Monday or Tuesday, the beginning of the week. We have some key zones here. We have this broken low and this broken low that create the dynamic— the resistances for us. We have this falling resistance line that create dynamic resistance. So from my point of view, these are great levels to look for the sell. Only if it starts to form the bullish waves, as I explained on the euro dollar, and then after some correction breaks that to the upside, only that will trigger the, um, possible trend change from my point of view. Until then, the bearish view is on, and I would definitely expect the pound-dollar to clean this low, maybe even beyond that, closer to the 127, 126, this massive volume profile zone and the 200 moving average. So For me, the bearish view was and remains the one that is relevant for now. Let's talk about the gold. We were talking about this low to be clean eventually and how this is going to happen. So right now, the daily chart creates the bullish divergence. Many times, I would say probability of around 70% of the times, the market does some range or some double waving here before, maybe even smaller range, something like that, before continuing lower. So any of these scenarios, if the market follows ABCD or a range, could then lead for the sell. In some rare cases, the move could be straight. And if it cleans this low, then I believe we should be looking for possible buy opportunities again on gold. This is already a building bullish divergence. So if we got one more low— let's move that— if we get one more low created, and especially if the weekly key low is cleaned with the next bullish divergence kicking in, I believe that could be great, uh, buy opportunity. Meanwhile, any ABCD or a range structure, I think Still keep the gold bearish for the longer term. And what's up with our Bitcoin? So for those of you follow our channel, you guys know we've been talking about that a lot, and you can find all these videos of course in our channel. We've been talking about the break of this range and the retest of this zone as a great opportunity for the sell. So I think the Bitcoin is establishing a bottom. But that could take time, and I think similar to gold and all the other dollar instruments we saw—pound, euro, and others—this could be a leading point. I think once we are there, it should be a great opportunity to start looking for the buys. But we are not there yet. What happens with the Bitcoin is it breaks the trend line, still remains bearish under its pressure. I think Bitcoin has all the reasons. To create at least one more drop and one more low until the weekly and the daily divergences would be completed, and then we can talk about the buys. Meanwhile, for me, it remains under bearish pressure. What do you think about the Bitcoin? Let me know in the comments. That's pretty much it for this video. As always, I hope you find value in these trading opportunities and you enjoy also out of trading, of course, the World Cup. Who is your favorite to win? I go with England for this tournament, with some probabilities that France could still make it. There are so many other strong teams, but for me, I don't know why, it's England for this tournament. Let me know what do you think, who's gonna win, in the, uh, the comment section below this video. Thank you for watching, best to you and yours, and I'll see you soon with more. Good trading! Bye for now.
