Vladimir Ribakov analyzes four forex pairs and gold for the week ahead. EUR/USD and GBP/USD show bearish divergences on MACD, signaling sell-the-rally opportunities. Gold may rally short-term but faces a target around 3,890, while GBP/JPY sits near monthly highs with divergence signals suggesting a pullback before further moves.
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What's up guys, Vladimir here from Home Trader Club. Welcome to our new weekly forex forecast. A lot of interesting opportunities are ahead of us as we are reaching key levels in many of these instruments. But before we go to the charts, I would like to remind you that we partnered with one of the leading brokers in our industry, AvaTrade. And what does that mean to you? That if you trade with AvaTrade, you get unlimited Yes, unlimited access to Home Trader Club and all of our features. Real-time trading education, real-time trading opportunities, including day trading opportunities in our all-inclusive membership that is covered with AvaTrade. And you get your access to our Trade Copier project. All you have to do is to trade with AvaTrade, and you can find it in the link below this video. In the description, join AvaTrade, get your unlimited access to Home Trader Club, and enjoy all the features and our trade copier. Let's start with the euro dollar. So last week we marked a couple of important levels that as long as they hold. We are looking for further sell opportunities on the euro dollar. These levels hold. So what's coming next? So here is how the price develops, and here is what I expect to happen next. So first of all, just to remove the the blur from this, I believe the euro dollar is yet to form another bottom. Very likely to break the previous low and to reach somewhere like the bottom of this trend line until it will actually form bullish divergence— lower lows on the price versus higher lows on the MACD. In terms of levels, I would be paying attention to this weekly resistance zone as a possible area, the last weekly low, and of course the volume profile zone. We also have a rising trend line where the euro-dollar could actually try to drop down to. So for me, it is sell the rallies. And usually around the current price structure that the market develops on the 4-hour chart, we have 2 scenarios. Scenario 1, that this becomes a zigzag, 2 waves up, 2 waves down, something like that, and then another final run to the upside before the big bears are taking control. Scenario number 2, it actually managed to break below this corrective structure. and starts to recreate the lower highs, lower lows, and pushes down all the way to the targets we just mentioned before. So for me, one of these scenarios should provide great sell opportunities. For me, the euro dollar is yet bearish. Let's talk about the pound dollar, uh, next one. Last week we discussed about, as you remember, and if you don't remember, no worries, you can find the video in this channel and see the exact plan as we discussed it. What we expected in one of our scenarios was to push to the downside, another rally towards these levels where from I expect to see the sell after this bearish divergence completes. So the pound-dollar follows this path exactly. What's gonna happen next? So I believe as long as these levels hold, the pound-dollar is indeed under the bearish pressure. Also important to pay attention to these falling resistance line and several of the supply levels we have on the horizon. So even if the pound attempts to make another final run, I think it's nothing more than the just sell opportunity. So I would be looking, uh, to sell the pound-dollar either in this format or even if it tries to make another run and clean some of the recent highs, like false breakout above them, watch out for these divergences because for that pound-dollar should be following a sell as well. Let's talk about the gold next. Last week we were talking about the gold that should respect the levels, and from there we Are very likely to get to the upside. So this zone was cleaned. It's one of the levels we spoke about the last week, and we got the false breakout there. As you can see, bullish candles formation, bullish engulfing, and from there a great run. So what's next with the gold? I still expect to see the bullish run. I still believe gold should complete this ABCD or some sort of a range until it will actually make. The bearish divergence. So, um, after completing this bullish divergence and the break of this wedge to the upside, most likely, uh, we entered a corrective structure. Corrective structure means either ABCD or in some rare cases some sort of a range here. Okay, so on the shorter run, I believe gold still has the bullish power momentum. But for the longer run, watch out for this level— high as a supply, high as a supply— and these levels could provide further sell opportunities. Also, another very important factor is of course this falling trend line which we have here, and the other one was connecting these highs. Okay, so If it doesn't manage to break these levels and just hold them, that could be also the sign that it enters a triangle-style correction. And with the break of it, we go on the sell. So longer story, I believe that short-run corrective structure could complete the ABCD or some sort of a range. But I do not think much more of that coming. I think these rallies should provide further drop down, and I would not be surprised if eventually gold would go and clean this key low we have on the daily chart around the 3890. So this is my trading plan for the gold. Short-term bullish further push is very possible. Longer term is looking to sell the rallies. I believe another low is due. And the final one for today gonna be pound yen, a little bit more aggressive but very, very interesting one. So here is what we have on the pound yen. We are currently around the high from the monthly chart, which is a significantly important level. Monthly chart is developing divergence. While the market attempts to make the higher highs, MACD makes lower highs. Weekly chart follows the same path, higher highs on the chart, but the MACD is structuring another potential fake peak, which means bearish divergence. And the daily chart actually already gives these signs, a bounce of the rising trend line with developing bearish divergence. So usually one of the next 2 scenarios follows in that case. Scenario number one, we actually managed to break this low get some pullbacks. And as long as this high holds, looking for sell opportunities on the retraces— this is another important high, uh, to watch— uh, could be a great, uh, trading opportunity as long as the peak holds. But there is a probability, because the weekly and daily are only forming the divergences, what could happen here is this turns to be Uh, final drop. Some bullish hidden divergence forms here. Higher lows on the trend, lower lows on the MACD histogram. Bullish divergence, bullish hidden divergence. From there, final run completing this condition: fake high under divergence. And then we have multi-timeframe divergences. And with the next false breakout look for the sell. So these are the 2 scenarios I follow on the pound yen. Let me know which one is your favorite out of all these in the comments. And I would like to thank you for watching. And if you are new to this channel, make sure you subscribe to enjoy all the trading opportunities we share here with you and the educational content we upload for our followers. So subscribe with the subscribe button below this video. And also I want to invite you to our trading family, the Home Trader Club. Get your access to unlimited educational content, real-time education and trading opportunities shared with you. The link is in the bio. Thanks for watching. I wish you wonderful trading week ahead, and I'll see you soon with more. Good trading. Bye for now.
